This draft is incredibly hard to figure out. It's SO short. It's SO deep.
It's SO... complicated.
Usually, a few weeks before the draft I end up feeling like it would be great to trade down and end up with a few players who fit into my typical draft approach.
That is:
- College kids who've performed well against the cream of the crop, either on the Cape or Team USA (ideally pitchers who look like they can be innings eaters or hitters who fall into the 2b/3b/RF player type),
- A couple super high upside HSers to dream on (athletic pitchers or guys with tremendous up-the-middle tools).
- At least one college reliever that may or may not be able to move quickly, or develop into a multi-inning opener/headliner.
I'm also a sucker for players from non-powerhouse baseball areas (Northeast, Pacific Northwest, Nevada) and I can't get enough of the Big West.
The decision a few years back to use the Padres was a good one; in a 5 round draft, having an extra pick in the mid-30s feels like a crazy blessing.
My top 5 players have pretty much been set in stone all year, in no small part because of the shortened season.
- Emerson Hancock
- Nick Gonzales
- Max Meyer
- Patrick Bailey
- Reid Detmers
I debate Hancock vs Gonzales, a lot (though I suspect neither will be there at the 8th pick). If they were both somehow there at the 8th pick, I'd probably lean hitter (and Gonzales fits in with the Huira pick a few years back).
Coming into the draft, I feel relatively good that at least one of my top 4 players will be there. Detmers is sort of my safety pick. However, if all this goes to hell (assuming Torkelson Martin and those 5 are the first 7 picks), I'm going to look at
- Mick Abel
HS pitchers are always risky, but it seems like the pendulum has swung too far right now... and it's possible that Abel at 8 is somehow a reach pick according to the industry, and not high enough because of risk aversion. Abel vs Detmers was actually a big debate for me.
With the 34th pick, I've got the desire to play a lotto ticket. If he's there, I'm taking
- Tanner Witt
He's a two way player who's been (loosely) comp'd to Kris Bryant as a hitter. However, if I go with Abel in the first (not likely, but possible), I'd want to be certain I get one of the following college pitchers (over Witt):
- Bobby Miller- Showed the sort of progress I'd want to see a pitcher make, and comes from a great school in Louisville (Dan McDonnell was effusive in his praise for this guy on a D1Baseball Podcast)
- Tanner Burns- He's got ace=level stuff, and can be an innings eater.
- Sam Weatherly- This guy checks a lot of boxes. He's got experience starting and relieving. he was in the middle of a tremendous breakout. I absolutely over=-value Clemson pitchers.
Those guys are also my top targets with the 45th pick.
Here is the rest of my big board, with some comments here and there:
- Colby Halter- He's higher on my board than most, but he's a gamer who will be a first rounder in a few years.
- Tyler Brown- He's a relief pitcher with 3 quality pitches, and not a ton of mileage on his arm. There's a chance he's a full-fledged starter, but he could also end up being a headliner (throwing 4 or 5 innings as the second pitcher on a given day). Lately, I've come around on the idea of carrying 4 workhorse SPs, and a couple opener/headliner types of pitchers. Brown fits into that development mold (He and Weatherly would make for an interesting piggyback option),
- David Calabrese- He's a Canadian HSer with good plate discipline and tremendous speed. It isn't a draft unless I reach for a stolen base threat.
- Kevin Abel- Oregon State- Was once a sure fire first round pick (and College WS hero). He'd be a good get.
- Tyler McDonough- NC State- Switch hitting grinder with experience at catcher, 2b and CF
- Braiden Ward- Washington- If I get Calabrese, I'd drop Ward to my 'sign after the draft' list. If I miss on Calabrese, I bump him up in front of Abel.
- Patrick Riley- Northeast player who are heading to Vandy are my heroin (Isan Diaz, Rhett Wiseman and Kobie Taylor are previous examples, and I hate myself for not having Treyjean Fletcher ranked well on last year's board).
- Luke Little- San Jacito- I know he doesn't *really* throw 105.... but he's the sort of high end flame thrower who could end up dominating out of the pen.
- Adam Seminaris- LB State- He was carving this year... would have loved to see his final stat line. And I do love my Dirt Dogs
- Stephen Ondina- PR (little guy who can run)
- Holden Powell- UCLA- If I get Brown and/or Weatherly, I'm not sure I keep Powell on my list.
- Nick Frasso- LMU- A Frday starter with good stuff.
- Jason Savacool- Upstate NY and MD commit
- Alex Toral- My system has quite a few power hitting, lousy fielding 1b/DH types, but Toral was a guy I liked coming out of HS.
I think my ideal draft haul is either 4 college players and 2 HSers, or 3 and 3.
For purposes of this draft, I'd offer the full $20k teams are allowed to bid to undrafted FAs to everyone left on the list who isn't picked.
The length of the draft makes this a hard one to figure out. I could walk out of a typical draft with Weatherly, Brown, McDonough and Ward on the college side, Halter and Riley on the HS side, and be perfectly happy.
Thinking outside the box... there's might be a way to line up those 4 college players and shoot the moon (grabbing Abel and Witt 8th and 34th as a way to inject a ton of upside, balanced by the 4 safer college picks as the draft moves on, though this misses on Halter). Feels like what the Mets tried a year ago, and given the oddity of this draft... might make sense as a way to Zig when everyone else is allegedly going to Zag.
