Early 2020 MLB Draft Big Board

This draft is incredibly hard to figure out. It's SO short. It's SO deep.

It's SO... complicated.

Usually, a few weeks before the draft I end up feeling like it would be great to trade down and end up with a few players who fit into my typical draft approach.

That is:

• College kids who've performed well against the cream of the crop, either on the Cape or Team USA (ideally pitchers who look like they can be innings eaters or hitters who fall into the 2b/3b/RF player type),
• A couple super high upside HSers to dream on (athletic pitchers or guys with tremendous up-the-middle tools).
• At least one college reliever that may or may not be able to move quickly, or develop into a multi-inning opener/headliner.

I'm also a sucker for players from non-powerhouse baseball areas (Northeast, Pacific Northwest, Nevada) and I can't get enough of the Big West.

The decision a few years back to use the Padres was a good one; in a 5 round draft, having an extra pick in the mid-30s feels like a crazy blessing.

My top 5 players have pretty much been set in stone all year, in no small part because of the shortened season.

• Emerson Hancock
• Nick Gonzales
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Reid Detmers

I debate Hancock vs Gonzales, a lot (though I suspect neither will be there at the 8th pick). If they were both somehow there at the 8th pick, I'd probably lean hitter (and Gonzales fits in with the Huira pick a few years back).

Coming into the draft, I feel relatively good that at least one of my top 4 players will be there. Detmers is sort of my safety pick. However, if all this goes to hell (assuming Torkelson Martin and those 5 are the first 7 picks), I'm going to look at

• Mick Abel

HS pitchers are always risky, but it seems like the pendulum has swung too far right now... and it's possible that Abel at 8 is somehow a reach pick according to the industry, and not high enough because of risk aversion. Abel vs Detmers was actually a big debate for me.

With the 34th pick, I've got the desire to play a lotto ticket. If he's there, I'm taking

• Tanner Witt

He's a two way player who's been (loosely) comp'd to Kris Bryant as a hitter. However, if I go with Abel in the first (not likely, but possible), I'd want to be certain I get one of the following college pitchers (over Witt):

• Bobby Miller- Showed the sort of progress I'd want to see a pitcher make, and comes from a great school in Louisville (Dan McDonnell was effusive in his praise for this guy on a D1Baseball Podcast)
• Tanner Burns- He's got ace=level stuff, and can be an innings eater.
• Sam Weatherly- This guy checks a lot of boxes. He's got experience starting and relieving. he was in the middle of a tremendous breakout. I absolutely over=-value Clemson pitchers.

Those guys are also my top targets with the 45th pick.

Here is the rest of my big board, with some comments here and there:

• Colby Halter- He's higher on my board than most, but he's a gamer who will be a first rounder in a few years.
• Tyler Brown- He's a relief pitcher with 3 quality pitches, and not a ton of mileage on his arm. There's a chance he's a full-fledged starter, but he could also end up being a headliner (throwing 4 or 5 innings as the second pitcher on a given day). Lately, I've come around on the idea of carrying 4 workhorse SPs, and a couple opener/headliner types of pitchers. Brown fits into that development mold (He and Weatherly would make for an interesting piggyback option),
• David Calabrese- He's a Canadian HSer with good plate discipline and tremendous speed. It isn't a draft unless I reach for a stolen base threat.
• Kevin Abel- Oregon State- Was once a sure fire first round pick (and College WS hero). He'd be a good get.
• Tyler McDonough- NC State- Switch hitting grinder with experience at catcher, 2b and CF
• Braiden Ward- Washington- If I get Calabrese, I'd drop Ward to my 'sign after the draft' list. If I miss on Calabrese, I bump him up in front of Abel.
• Patrick Riley- Northeast player who are heading to Vandy are my heroin (Isan Diaz, Rhett Wiseman and Kobie Taylor are previous examples, and I hate myself for not having Treyjean Fletcher ranked well on last year's board).
• Luke Little- San Jacito- I know he doesn't *really* throw 105.... but he's the sort of high end flame thrower who could end up dominating out of the pen.
• Adam Seminaris- LB State- He was carving this year... would have loved to see his final stat line. And I do love my Dirt Dogs
• Stephen Ondina- PR (little guy who can run)
• Holden Powell- UCLA- If I get Brown and/or Weatherly, I'm not sure I keep Powell on my list.
• Nick Frasso- LMU- A Frday starter with good stuff.
• Jason Savacool- Upstate NY and MD commit
• Alex Toral- My system has quite a few power hitting, lousy fielding 1b/DH types, but Toral was a guy I liked coming out of HS.

I think my ideal draft haul is either 4 college players and 2 HSers, or 3 and 3.

For purposes of this draft, I'd offer the full $20k teams are allowed to bid to undrafted FAs to everyone left on the list who isn't picked.

The length of the draft makes this a hard one to figure out. I could walk out of a typical draft with Weatherly, Brown, McDonough and Ward on the college side, Halter and Riley on the HS side, and be perfectly happy.

Thinking outside the box... there's might be a way to line up those 4 college players and shoot the moon (grabbing Abel and Witt 8th and 34th as a way to inject a ton of upside, balanced by the 4 safer college picks as the draft moves on, though this misses on Halter). Feels like what the Mets tried a year ago, and given the oddity of this draft... might make sense as a way to Zig when everyone else is allegedly going to Zag.

2019 Draft Diary

Below is my big board, broken down by picks

• Adley Rutschman- Can't be surprised to see him go first overall
• Andrew Vaughn- Leading up to the draft, there were many rumors of him slipping to 6... I was hoping
• CJ Abrams- With the 6th pick, the Padres take CJ Abrams :-)
• Logan Davidson- He goes at 29. I was higher on him than most, but also hoped against hope he'd slip to round 2.
• Bryson Stott- Slipped to 14, but was never really in reach
• Alek Manoah- Went at 11.
• Corbin Carroll- Great pick by the DBacks at 16

Obviously, I managed to get Abrams, so the idea of floating a player fell apart (likely for the better).

• Cavaco (depending)
• Leiter (depending)
• Young (depending)

With no float candidate, I'm back at it.

• Michael Massey- With the 45th pick, the Padres select Mike Massey. In real life, he goes at pick 109 to KC, so I may be a little high, but that's OK. He's a gamer.
• Josh Jung- I was obviously too low on him
• Kyle McCann- With the 84th pick, the Padres select Kyle McCann. In reality he goes 134 to Oakland... and given the Driscoll pick, I'm not sure this is the right pick. That said, if he ends up at 1b, that's OK too.
• Andre Pallante- With the 114th pick, the Padres Select Andre Pallante. In realty, he went 125 to STL.
• Michael Busch- I was obviously way too low on this guy, but am excited to see him play with my hometown Dodgers
• Sebastian Keane- With the 143rd pick, the Padres select Sebastian Keane. In reality, he left at pick 347 (the 11th round) to the Red Sox. Is he signable?
• Jacob Wallace- He went number 100 to Colorado
• Greame Stinson- He went 128 to TB, who will no doubt turn him into a monster
• Andre Lipcius- He went 83rd to the Tigers. A really good pick for them.
• Jake Mangum- He went to the Mets at 118 (the Mets draft is super interesting)
• Anthony Prato- With the 173rd pick, the Padres select Anthony Prato, In reality he went 209 to the Twins
• Logan Driscoll- With the 73rd pick, the Padres Selected Logan Driscoll*
• Ryan Ward- With the 203rd pick, the Padres select Ryan Ward. In reality he went 251 to the Dodgers
• Jeff Belge- With the 233rd pick, the Padres select Jeff Belge. In reality, he went to STL with pick 551

At this point, I'm going to see if any float candidates are left, and if so, I'm taking them... you never know.

• Jack Leiter- With the 263 pick, the Padres select Jack Leiter. In reality he went to the Yankees at pick 615. Let's see what happens
• Carter Young- With the 293 pick, the Padres Select Carter Young. In reality, he went undrafted

Some thoughts heading into Day 3. I was obviously super low on a couple players (Jung, Busch, etc). In previous years, I've left players that I like who were suspected to be first rounders off my board entirely, and when one of them fell, I stuck to the board and missed out. So I don't mind those misses.

The total draft haul looks like this:

Hitters

• Abrams- SS
• Massey- 2b
• McCann C/1b
• Driscoll- C
• Prato- 2b
• Ward- OF

Pitchers

• Pallante- SP
• Keane- SP
• Belge- RP
• Leiter- SP (unlikely to sign)

The real life pick of Driscoll, who was much lower on my board, would have probably precluded me from picking McCann, in which case I'd have liked to have found another pitcher (though if you bump McCann, I still don't get access to Wallace of Stinson, so maybe it doesn't matter).

It's obviously college hitter-heavy, but the idea of Abrams and Keane combining to offer some upside in a largely safe draft isn't the worst thing in the world (in fact, that's kind of my ideal draft). Keane signing or not has the potential to make or break this draft.

A few players I should have, in hindsight, had on the board.

• Trejyn Fltcher- OF-He would have continued my love of New England HS players with a Vanderbilt commit (Rhett Wiseman and Isan Diaz being previous examples)
• Seth Johnson- SS/SP- Went at 40 to the Rays and has a lot of upside.
• Noah Song- Potentially the best SP to come out of this draft.

*I'm going out of order here, because I sort of have to. Since the Padres took him in real life, there is no way to know where he would have fallen. I'm super stoked to get him.

2019 MLB Draft Big Board

Years ago, I made the decision to shadow draft as the Padres, so I'll keep that running. Having the 6th pick in the draft is... nice. But maybe a little confusing. Baseball America, D1 Baseball, and basically every other website covering the draft say there is a clear top 6 in the draft, but I'm only in on three of the 6... which means in this shadow round... I may draft a player at 6 that isn't expected, and then have a list of guys I'm trying to float to 48.

Here goes.

My top three (in order) are Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and CJ Abrams.

If one of those three is there, I draft him, and move along happily. However, if they are all off the board, things get a little crazy. Logan Davidson, Bryson Stott, Alek Manoah, and Corbin Carroll are numbers 4-7 on my board. Drafting one of them means I'm going to do everything I can to float one of the following players:

• Keoni Cavaco
• Jack Leiter
• Carter Young*

Here is the overall board (kind of).

HS

Player	School	Notes
Adley Rutschman	Oregon State	Truly the best player in the draft
Andrew Vaughn	Cal	Keston Hiura part 2?
CJ Abrams	HS in GA	Rafael Furcal? Kenny Lofton? Maybe?
Logan Davidson	Clemson	Healthy Jed Lowrie
Bryson Stott	UNLV	Elite SS with a bat? Yes please.
Alek Manoah	West Virginia	The best (readily available) college arm in the draft
Corbin Carroll		Everyone thinks he will hit

---break---

Cavaco (depending)

Leiter (depending)

Young (depending)

Player	School	Notes
Michael Massey	Illinois	He simply hits. Nothing more
Josh Jung	Texas Tech	I see a lot of Troy Glaus in his game
Kyle McCann	GA Tech	I know this is a lazy comp, but this feels like a poor man's Kyle Schwarber
Andre Pallante	UC Irvine	Some folks see a reliever, but he's got a 4 pitch mix and I'm going to let him start until he proves he can't.
Michael Busch	UNC	Anyone who knows me gets why this is my pick)
Sebastian Keane	Mass HS	Ignoring Carter Young, he is my perfect 11th round pick
Jacob Wallace	UCONN	I think he is one of the top 3 relievers in this draft
Greame Stinson	Duke	Similar to Wallace, but higher variation in floor and ceiling for me>
Andre Lipcius	Tennessee	Coming into the year, I had this guy as a top 30 pick and a Nick Senzel comp.
Jake Mangum	Mississippi State	Senior sign with a chance to be a Robbie Grossman clone
Anthony Pratto	UCONN	A littler guy with great OBP who's likely to play 2b
Logan Driscoll	George Mason	I'm a sucker for a lefty catcher, and even more so when they went to my alma mater.
Ryan Ward	Bryant University >	It isn't a draft if I'm not the high person on a Bryant draft pick
Jeff Belge	St. Johns	I was a fan coming out of HS, even shadow drafted him.

*An aside on Carter Young. As a 16 year old, playing on Team USA's U18 team, Young basically lived on the bases (a .429 OBP, which was among the team leaders, despite him being 2 year younger than most of his competition). He's struggled with mechanics and his swing, and to be fair, there is no player for whom "he should go to college" rings true. At Vandy, there's an excellent chance he rediscovers his swing, and ends up as a first round pick in 3 years. That said, I get "winner" vibes from him... and if I were running a major league team, he'd be VERY high on my target list this year. Irrational comp that has no backing: Switch Hitting Derek Jeter (no pressure Carter). I've talked in the past about making my 11th round pick be a guy I can dream on... This is that pick.

2018 Draft Diary

Well, here was the board coming into this thing:

1. - Casey Mize- 1st overall
2. - Jonathan India- 5th overall
3. - Nick Madrigal- 4th overall
4. - Griffin Roberts
5. - Tim Cate
6. - Matt Mclain (HS)- 25th overall (darn you Arizona!)
7. - Colton Eastman- Eastman is still around for pick 74.
8. - Davis Martin
9. - John Aiello
10. - Matt Mercer
11. - Zac Susi
12. - Joe Demers
13. - Nick Northcut (HS)- Went way off board for a high upside guy at pick 38
14. - Tarik Skubal
15. - Mickey Gasper- Senior sign from Bryant
16. - Jarren Duran- I was too low on him.. he went 220th
17. - Alonso Jones

Mize goes first as expected, meaning I'm hoping for Madrigal or India to slide to 7... and neither does.This means I'm grabbing Roberts much higher than anyone else would... and it opens up the chance to go above slot with my second pick.

The Diamondbacks grab the object of my over slot affection, and pick up Mclain... this leaves me either going wildly off the board, or pulling Northcut up way higher.

I'm going to go crazy, and take either Northcut or Ethan Hankins with my next pick.

Regarding Hankins... in previous draft years and diary, I've always put a high upside HSer in the mix for my 11th round pick.... I thought about making it Hankins this year, but figured he'd go WAY earlier than that. I regret that I didn't include him in this mix.

Singer and Kowar? Royals are having a day... then they picked Lynch, and I want to take back the nice thing I was about to say about them (Dayton Moore and I went to the same school... I love that guy... but don't love this pick).

Hankins comes off the board, and my remorse for not including him as an 11th round option disappears. Northcut is my next pick if he is there.

Pick 38- Northcut is the guy

Dayton Moore grabs Bubic... I always liked Dayton.

In hindsight, if Cate doesn't fall to me with my next pick, I'm going to view the Northcut thing as a panic move. I spent WAY too much time putting a big board together.... and I blew it up over a bad series of breaks.

Robert goes 43rd overall to St Louis... he'll immediately become a super star that leaves everyone asking 'why didn't my team get him?' See: Weaver, Luke.

Pick 65... Nationals confirm my panic move. Gah!

Pick 74 is Colton Eastman

Update 10-4-22- I never finished out this draft.

Pick 84 would be Davis Martin.

Aiello would be pick 111

Matt Mercer would be pick 141

Zac Susi would be pick 171

Joe Demers would be pick 201 Tarik Skubal is pick 231

Mickay Gaspar is pick 271

2018 Draft Big Board

Running quick this year: 1- Casey Mize 2- Jonathan India 3- Nick Madrigal 4- Griffin Roberts 5- Tim Cate 6- Matt Mclain (HS) 7- Colton Eastman 8- Davis Martin 9- John Aiello 10- Matt Mercer 11- Zac Susi 12- Joe Demers 13- Nick Northcut (HS) 14- Tarik Skubal 15- Mickey Gasper- Senior sign from Bryant 16- Jarren Durran 17- Alonso Jones

2017 draft big board and outcome

I really dropped the ball in terms of getting this put together in advance. I'm still mocking as the Padres, and this may be the first time in my draft mocking days that I've had a top 5 pick. My big board coming into the draft was actually kind of small.

• Keston Hiura- He's the best hitter in the draft, and has proven it against his peers on the international stage.
• Brandon McKay- I love his pitching numbers, and it helps that he can hit too (national league team and all)
• Evan White- Let's be clear, I'm assuming there is no way White makes it to me in the 2nd round (and I'm guessing one of Hiura or McKay end up on the team). But this is my perfect world, hope and pray scenario
• Quentin Holmes- The guy has 80 speed, and seems to be known all over as a gamer. I'm guessing this is my 2nd round pick, if everything goes well.
• Keegan Thompson- Love him. Have mock drafted him twice. I'm finally getting my guy, I hope.
• Nick Allen- Little guy with great D. I can't imagine he'll be around... BA seems to have him as a 1st rounder in podcasts.
• James Karinchak- A NE arm with great stuff and who showed 1st round abilities.
• Justin Yurchak- This Binghamton guy is somehow a personal cheeseball
• David Banuelos-He's a defensive stud. He might only make the majors as a backup catcher,, but at this point, that's still a steal
• Tarik Skubal- Hes hurt, but he might be a stud in a couple years
• Chase Pinder- Every time I saw Clemson on TV, this guy did something great. I don't know if he's a corner OF, or CF, but he's a gamer.
• Andrew Beckwith- Carried his team to a College WS a year ago. Never got right.
• Mason Hickman- Here's my other HS guy. I don't imagine he signs, but he and Holmes would be a coup.

The draft starts, and a couple HS kids go off the board. I'm going to keep the surprises going, and take Hiura. with pick 3. McKay comes off the board one pick later, and White at 17. At this point, I'm holding my breath that Holmes is there when I get to pick again. Oh yeah, I miss on high upside OF a lot, and somehow refuse to learn my lesson there.

Tanner Houck and Seth Romero come off the board back to back, and I like both picks. Houck very nearly made my big board, and Romero probably would have been on there, especially in the 3rd round for me, due to what seems like a serious case of being a knucklehead.

Pick 39 comes along, and I'm taking Holmes.

Pick 69 comes along, and I'm taking Thompson

Pick 78 comes, and I'm taking Allen

Pick 108 comes, and I'm taking Karinchak

Pick 138 comes along, and I'm grabbing Yurchak.

Banuelos comes off the board at 153, which is a little sad, but I'me basically smitten at this point.

• Pick 3- Keston Hiura (picked 9th in real life, Milwaukee)
• Pick 39- Quentin Holmes (Picked 64 in real life, Cleveland)
• Pick 69- Keegan Thompson (picked 105 in real life, ChC)
• Pick 78- Nick Allen (picked 81 in real life, Oak)
• Pick 108- James Karinchak (Picked 282 in real life, Cleveland)
• Pick 138- Justin Yurchak (picked 357 in real life, ChW)
• Pick 168- Tarik Skubal (Picked 862 in real life, Ari)
• Pick 198- Chase Pinder (went 214 in real life)
• Pick 228- Andrew Beckwith (went 960 in real life, KC)
• Pick 258- Mason Hickman (undrafted in real life)

I don't think some of these guys will sign, but I have to say, this is just about my perfect draft.

A belated Draft Diary

Coming into the second day of the draft, my big board looked like this:

• Belge
• Thompson
• Taylor
• Hampson (goes slightly before I would have taken him)
• Calica
• Schmidt
• York
• Moseley
• Jordan (goes in the 8th round to the Orioles)
• Hammond

That all ends up going as follows:

• Round 3, Pick 85- Jeff Belge (in real life he goes WAY later...the 32nd round... I'll end up with an extra pick next year, since Belge didn't sign)
• Round 4, Pick 114- Keegan Thompson (In real life he went in the 33rd, and he didn't sign... I'm sad he doesn't sign)
• Round 5, Pick 144- Kobie Taylor (In real life, he went in the 15th round, but signed for far more than the $100K slot... taking a $359K bonus. I'm thrilled to land him for that cost.
• Round 6, Pick 174- Andrew Calica (he went in the 11th in real life, and signed for $100k).
• Round 7, Pick 204- Clate Schmidt (he went in the 20th, and BA says he signed)
• Round 8, Pick 234- Trey York (he goes in the 9th in real life, signing for $25k... I'm thrilled to add him)
• Roung 9, Pick 264- Mitchell Jordan (he went to the A's in real life, 28 picks later, signing for $200k).
• Round 10, Pick 294- Cooper Hammond- Went undrafted.

If I had it to do again, I'd move Logan Gray down a bit, so that I can snag Hampson. I'd move Moseley up a bit so that he ends up on my roster as well.

Dollar wise, I end up far under the bonus allotment, which actually makes me a little sad. I should have done a better job in making sure there was an injury risk or HS player I was really interested in.