Friday, July 31, 2015

Early Deadline Action

This post will be half shadow Padres, half real MLB.

For the Shadow team, if I'm the Padres, I'm jumping in on the Angels deal to pick up David Murphy, using Will Venable. As of now, both are .5 WAR Players this year. Venable is a little younger and is a FA at the end of the season, while Murphy has a $7 million team option next year, which I suspect the Angels will decline. As such, I'm dealing off Will Venable for Eric Stamets.

This means I'm forgoing whatever deal gets offered in the next 2 hours on Will Venable, after all, you can't deal away an asset you don't control.

I've been on the Stamets bandwagon for a while. He's a ++ defender, who reminds me a lot of the guy who I'll introduce as the backup MI on my all time team in the next couple weeks. He's also exceptionally fast, making him a perfect punch runner. When the downside of a player reads something like "let's you carry a player like Dan Murphy as an offensive minded 2b, can slot in with a good D minded SS to for a terrific DP combo, and can also be a very good pinch runner"... we have a winner.

Remember, while most people think of quality platoons as LH/RH... there's also the option of Off/Def platoons too.

Long term, I'd like of Stamets as a guy who could end up starting a couple games per week (especially with a GB pitcher on the mound), giving regulars at 2b and SS a break, and also being a killer weapon off the bench in close and late situations where a team needs a pinch runner.

Also, given the reports out there that the Marlins could consider moving Marcell Ozuna, I'm keeping my eyes open. He's a young, cost controlled, 5 tool player, and he's only 24. If he gets moved, there's an excellent chance my fake Padres team will pounce to match the deal the Marlins get (remember, players like Max Fried and Jace Peterson are still in my system... I'm no AJ Preller).

Moves I like

Moving on to real life. I have to say, I really like what the Mets have done so far. I know they're getting killed for the Wilmer Flores debacle (as I said in a Facebook comment... People shouldn't be mocking Flores.. most players cry when they get traded TO the Mets), but I appreciate that the team stood by their doctor's recommendation, and made an unpopular decision. Also, they've added a quality 3b Platoon (with Johnson and Uribe, 3b is covered adequately) while also adding length to the bench. They added a quality pitcher in Tyler Clippard to extend their bullpen. Sandy Alderson is a smart guy, and I think he's playing things perfectly.

The Orioles held on to their best young players, but also added a quality OF who can play all 3 spots, and has hit out of his mind this year. While Toronto went All-In, Dan Duquette made a super smart pickup without mortgaging the future too much. (and yes, I WILL always be a Duquette apologist... Even if his media savvy could stand to improve, I adore the guy as a GM)

Kudos are deserved in Kansas City, where stat heads' least favorite GM, Dayton Moore, made a pair of aggressive moves to show his team and fanbase that he's serious. Cueto is a phenom, and Zobrist makes any lineup he's a part of better. If Alex Gordon comes back healthy in time for the final couple weeks and the playoffs... the Royals would be a super legit competitor to make their second straight world series.

As of this writing, the Cubs have simply added Dan Haren. A discussion I regularly have with people stems from something I learned at SOSH, the easiest improvement is moving from awful to league average. If the Cubs, now 2 games out of the wild card, make the playoffs, there's a great chance it will be because they have one of the better number 5 pitchers in baseball, in Dan Haren. Good move Theo.

Moves I'm on the fence for

I like that the Blue Jays went all in, but goodness, they've lost a TON of talent over the long term. Jeff Hoffman has potential-ace capabilities, and Matt Boyd is a personal cheeseball (H/T John Manuel from BA for the 'Cheeseball' title). I see a lot of Alan Embree there. That said, Toronto has proven in the past to be a baseball town, and the idea of waking a sleeping giant of a fanbase, with the goal of kicking off a sellout streak like the days of old and being able to add payroll was a good gamble.

Moves I don't like

If you're the Phillies, you needed to add young talent with every move. For Cole Hamels, they didn't get a single guy that, to my eye, will be a core member of the next great Phillies team. Getting Joey Gallo instead of a couple extra lottery tickets is something I would have tried to do.

Cincinnati- What are you doing kids? Walt Jocketty has a FAR more extensive resume than I do, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt. But, in total, he's dealt away Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, Cody Ross, Adam Duvall and Keury Mella. It's a classic "quantity over quality" approach, and one I'm not smitten with. If the return is Finnegan and Mondesi from KC and Christian Arroyo from SF, I'm FAR more on board. I didn't love what he did here (I'm sure he'll bookmark this post and send me a nice note when 4 of those guys are all-stars).

As of this posting, it's 2:38 ET, and word on the street is that we'll see many, MANY more deal at the deadline. I'm sure there will be more to discuss.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Trade Deadline for the Shadow Padres

With the trade deadline looming, it seems like a good time to see if the Padres would be buyers or sellers. There have to be a million ways to figure this out, but for purposes of this exercise, I'm going to keep it simple.

I'm going to look at the WAR my team would have accumulated, and the WAR that the real Padres have accumulated. If I have more wins than they do, I'll add to their win total. If they have more, I'll subject.

That seems like a simply way to determine how many wins my team would have.

Players on both rosters

Players on my rosterPlayers on their roster
PlayerWarPlayerWarPlayerWar
Yonder Alonso0.7Yasmani Grandal1.8Clint Barmes0.9
Jed Gyroko0.0Jung Ho Kang2.5Matt Kemp0.5
Will Venable0.4Jed Lowrie0.8Craig Kimbrel0.0
Ian Kennedy0.1Nori Aoki1.7Will Middlebrooks-1
Cory Luebke-0.1Jace Peterson0.5Will Myers0.5
Tyson Ross0.2Everth Cabrera-0.8Derek Norris1.7
Andrew Cashner-0.2Cameron Maybin0.7James Shields0.1
Odrasmer Despagne-0.1Jake Fox0.0Justin Upton3.1
Joaquin Benoit0.0Jake Elmore-0.7Melvin Upton0.1
Dale Thayer0.0Seth Smith1.6Brett Wallace0.2
Shawn Kelley0.00.2
Austin Hedges0.1Sum8.1Sum6.1
Brandon Morrow-0.1
Josh Johnson0.0
Robbie Erlin-0.5
Casey Kelly0.0
Cory Spangenberg0.9

In short, I'm 2 wins better than the real life Padres, which means instead of 47 and 52, I'm 49 and 50; 5.5 games out of the wild card, but still with 4 teams in front of me. Basically, I'm not terrible enough to blow it up entirely, but it's also safe to say this won't be a playoff season for me.

If it were me, I'd open up negotiations with Ian Kennedy right now. If we can strike a deal that keeps him here for a few years, I'm 100% in favor. if not, I'm looking REALLY hard at whether or not he is worth a first round tender at the end of the season. At $16.5 million, he'd be my highest paid player, BY FAR, and I'm not sure I'm OK with that.

I'm also putting Will Venable, Shawn Kelley and Joaquin Benoit on the block. Venable will probably be traded in real life, and since h's a FA at the end of the season, I'm wishing him well (note: I really love Will Venable... for years, he's just seemed like a guy who knows how to play). I suspect Kelley won't bring back a ton. For Benoit, If someone wants a "proven closer," even one who's signed for another year, well, there's probably a deal to be made.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Draft Signings post deadline

PlayerSigning BonusSlotDifference
Daz Cameron$4,000,000$2,962,100-$1,037,900
John AielloNA$1,506,400-$1,506,400
Riley Ferrell$1,000,000$1,178,400+$178,400
Rhett Wiseman$554,100$687,300+$133,200
Justin Garza$169,900$484,000+$314,100
Elih MarreroNA$362,300$362,300
Joe DemersNA$271,300$271,300
Riley ThompsonNA$271,300$271,300
Kyle MolnarNA$203,300$203,300
Sutton Whitting$100,000$172,000+$72,000
Chandler DayNANANA
Cole IrvinNANANA
Nick Madrigal/td>NANANA
David Lucroy$100,000$100kNA
Luke Willis$100,000NANA
In total, that puts me $27,600 over my slot value, which means I can close the deal with the players who signed. This draft will essentially be made or broken depending on how Daz Cameron turns out.

The All Time Favorite Team- 5th Starter

His fastball was, in a good day, in the low 70's. But that wasn't his bread ad butter. No, for Tim Wakefield, a 60 MPH butterfly-like knuckle ball was how he'd be successful. And while he wasn't drafted by the Red Sox, he will always be a member of Red Sox nation.

In 2003, after giving up the homerun to Aaron Bleeping Boone, he feared that he'd be treated like Billy Buckner in Boston.

12 months later, he'd volunteer to pitch in relief, giving up a start in the playoffs, and setting off the most magical run I've ever seen in Baseball.

Inside the numbers... the guy had 200 Wins (186 with the Sox). In his first year with the Sox, he rattled off 27 starts, put up 195 innings, and had an ERA of 2.95. It would be one of 2 seasons where his ERA was under 3 in more than 150 IP. He pitched more than 180 IP in a season 9 times, retired with 2 World Series rings, and covered every role imaginable on a pitching staff (evem notching 15 saves in 1999).

If you want to see what Red Sox fans thought of Wakefield, head over to the tribute thread on Sons of Sam Horn.

Tim Wakefield is my number 5 starter.