Friday, June 7, 2019

2019 Draft Diary

Below is my big board, broken down by picks
  • Adley Rutschman- Can't be surprised to see him go first overall
  • Andrew Vaughn- Leading up to the draft, there were many rumors of him slipping to 6... I was hoping
  • CJ Abrams- With the 6th pick, the Padres take CJ Abrams :-)
  • Logan Davidson- He goes at 29. I was higher on him than most, but also hoped against hope he'd slip to round 2.
  • Bryson Stott- Slipped to 14, but was never really in reach
  • Alek Manoah- Went at 11.
  • Corbin Carroll- Great pick by the DBacks at 16

Obviously, I managed to get Abrams, so the idea of floating a player fell apart (likely for the better).

  • Cavaco (depending)
  • Leiter (depending)
  • Young (depending)

With no float candidate, I'm back at it.

  • Michael Massey- With the 45th pick, the Padres select Mike Massey. In real life, he goes at pick 109 to KC, so I may be a little high, but that's OK. He's a gamer.
  • Josh Jung- I was obviously too low on him
  • Kyle McCann- With the 84th pick, the Padres select Kyle McCann. In reality he goes 134 to Oakland... and given the Driscoll pick, I'm not sure this is the right pick. That said, if he ends up at 1b, that's OK too.
  • Andre Pallante- With the 114th pick, the Padres Select Andre Pallante. In realty, he went 125 to STL.
  • Michael Busch- I was obviously way too low on this guy, but am excited to see him play with my hometown Dodgers
  • Sebastian Keane- With the 143rd pick, the Padres select Sebastian Keane. In reality, he left at pick 347 (the 11th round) to the Red Sox. Is he signable?
  • Jacob Wallace- He went number 100 to Colorado
  • Greame Stinson- He went 128 to TB, who will no doubt turn him into a monster
  • Andre Lipcius- He went 83rd to the Tigers. A really good pick for them.
  • Jake Mangum- He went to the Mets at 118 (the Mets draft is super interesting)
  • Anthony Prato- With the 173rd pick, the Padres select Anthony Prato, In reality he went 209 to the Twins
  • Logan Driscoll- With the 73rd pick, the Padres Selected Logan Driscoll*
  • Ryan Ward- With the 203rd pick, the Padres select Ryan Ward. In reality he went 251 to the Dodgers
  • Jeff Belge- With the 233rd pick, the Padres select Jeff Belge. In reality, he went to STL with pick 551

At this point, I'm going to see if any float candidates are left, and if so, I'm taking them... you never know.

  • Jack Leiter- With the 263 pick, the Padres select Jack Leiter. In reality he went to the Yankees at pick 615. Let's see what happens
  • Carter Young- With the 293 pick, the Padres Select Carter Young. In reality, he went undrafted

Some thoughts heading into Day 3. I was obviously super low on a couple players (Jung, Busch, etc). In previous years, I've left players that I like who were suspected to be first rounders off my board entirely, and when one of them fell, I stuck to the board and missed out. So I don't mind those misses.

The total draft haul looks like this:

Hitters

  • Abrams- SS
  • Massey- 2b
  • McCann C/1b
  • Driscoll- C
  • Prato- 2b
  • Ward- OF

Pitchers

  • Pallante- SP
  • Keane- SP
  • Belge- RP
  • Leiter- SP (unlikely to sign)

The real life pick of Driscoll, who was much lower on my board, would have probably precluded me from picking McCann, in which case I'd have liked to have found another pitcher (though if you bump McCann, I still don't get access to Wallace of Stinson, so maybe it doesn't matter).

It's obviously college hitter-heavy, but the idea of Abrams and Keane combining to offer some upside in a largely safe draft isn't the worst thing in the world (in fact, that's kind of my ideal draft). Keane signing or not has the potential to make or break this draft.

A few players I should have, in hindsight, had on the board.

  • Trejyn Fltcher- OF-He would have continued my love of New England HS players with a Vanderbilt commit (Rhett Wiseman and Isan Diaz being previous examples)
  • Seth Johnson- SS/SP- Went at 40 to the Rays and has a lot of upside.
  • Noah Song- Potentially the best SP to come out of this draft.

*I'm going out of order here, because I sort of have to. Since the Padres took him in real life, there is no way to know where he would have fallen. I'm super stoked to get him.

Sunday, June 2, 2019

2019 MLB Draft Big Board

Years ago, I made the decision to shadow draft as the Padres, so I'll keep that running. Having the 6th pick in the draft is... nice. But maybe a little confusing. Baseball America, D1 Baseball, and basically every other website covering the draft say there is a clear top 6 in the draft, but I'm only in on three of the 6... which means in this shadow round... I may draft a player at 6 that isn't expected, and then have a list of guys I'm trying to float to 48.

Here goes.

My top three (in order) are Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and CJ Abrams.

If one of those three is there, I draft him, and move along happily. However, if they are all off the board, things get a little crazy. Logan Davidson, Bryson Stott, Alek Manoah, and Corbin Carroll are numbers 4-7 on my board. Drafting one of them means I'm going to do everything I can to float one of the following players:

  • Keoni Cavaco
  • Jack Leiter
  • Carter Young*

Here is the overall board (kind of).

HS
PlayerSchoolNotes
Adley RutschmanOregon StateTruly the best player in the draft
Andrew VaughnCalKeston Hiura part 2?
CJ AbramsHS in GARafael Furcal? Kenny Lofton? Maybe?
Logan DavidsonClemsonHealthy Jed Lowrie
Bryson StottUNLVElite SS with a bat? Yes please.
Alek ManoahWest VirginiaThe best (readily available) college arm in the draft
Corbin CarrollEveryone thinks he will hit

---break---

Cavaco (depending)

Leiter (depending)

Young (depending)

PlayerSchoolNotes
Michael MasseyIllinoisHe simply hits. Nothing more
Josh JungTexas TechI see a lot of Troy Glaus in his game
Kyle McCannGA TechI know this is a lazy comp, but this feels like a poor man's Kyle Schwarber
Andre Pallante UC Irvine Some folks see a reliever, but he's got a 4 pitch mix and I'm going to let him start until he proves he can't.
Michael Busch UNCAnyone who knows me gets why this is my pick)
Sebastian Keane Mass HS Ignoring Carter Young, he is my perfect 11th round pick
Jacob Wallace UCONN I think he is one of the top 3 relievers in this draft
Greame StinsonDukeSimilar to Wallace, but higher variation in floor and ceiling for me>
Andre Lipcius TennesseeComing into the year, I had this guy as a top 30 pick and a Nick Senzel comp.
Jake MangumMississippi StateSenior sign with a chance to be a Robbie Grossman clone
Anthony Pratto UCONN A littler guy with great OBP who's likely to play 2b
Logan DriscollGeorge MasonI'm a sucker for a lefty catcher, and even more so when they went to my alma mater.
Ryan Ward Bryant University >It isn't a draft if I'm not the high person on a Bryant draft pick
Jeff Belge St. Johns I was a fan coming out of HS, even shadow drafted him.

*An aside on Carter Young. As a 16 year old, playing on Team USA's U18 team, Young basically lived on the bases (a .429 OBP, which was among the team leaders, despite him being 2 year younger than most of his competition). He's struggled with mechanics and his swing, and to be fair, there is no player for whom "he should go to college" rings true. At Vandy, there's an excellent chance he rediscovers his swing, and ends up as a first round pick in 3 years. That said, I get "winner" vibes from him... and if I were running a major league team, he'd be VERY high on my target list this year. Irrational comp that has no backing: Switch Hitting Derek Jeter (no pressure Carter). I've talked in the past about making my 11th round pick be a guy I can dream on... This is that pick.