Thursday, June 11, 2020

2020 Draft Day 2 diary

If you missed yesterday's post, my fake Padres added Patrick Bailey and Tanner Witt (battery of the future?).

(2:00pm PT) Coming into the day, here is my board:

  • Sam Weatherly
  • Colby Halter
  • David Calabrese
  • Holden Powell
  • Tyler McDonough
  • Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
  • John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell.
  • Patrick Riley
  • Kevin Abel
  • Luke Little
  • Adam Seminaris
  • Stephen Odina
  • Nick Frasso
  • Jason Savacool
  • Alex Toral

With the 45th pick, I'm taking Sam Weatherly

(3:22pm) As the second round concludes, I'm worried no one has drafted Witt in real life, who's rumored to have a first round asking price. I was hopeful Cleveland, TB or LAD would have hopped in at the end of the 2nd, because those feel like 3 amazing landing spots for him (the Dodgers grabbing Landon Knack at the end of the round makes me wonder if they'll do it in the 2nd supplemental, and I'm crossing my fingers).

(3:31) Nope. They took Beeter... Miller, Knack and Beeter is a heck of a draft haul.

(3:49) The Astros took Santos, and it's making me think that I will end up needing to remember an extra pick next year. Onto the 3rd round, where I'm hoping for Halter.

(4:00) I'm wondering if this is one of those drafts where I got too cute, went too deep, and will end up signing like... 1 player.

(4:08) Colby Halter is there, and I'm excited to add him (who knows if he'll sign at this point?). In real-life, the Padres snagged Cole Wilcox, who feels like a steal if he signs.

(4:25)- Weatherly and Calabrese go back to back in real life... Powell is next on my board.

(4:53)- Powell goes to Was.

(5:10)<---Have to log off for a bit.. Will recap the rest of the draft in hindsight.

Houston took Tyler Brown? Thought he wasn't going to sign. Gah!

Frasso goes to the Blue Jays

Tyler McDonough is the pick in the 4th.

Little goes to the Cubs

Really like the Brewers pick of Wiemer. He was on an early follow list for me, but didn't make the final version

Ward would be my final pick here.

I very much like the Angels pick of Mason Hickman.

My final draft ends up with

  • Patrick Bailey
  • Tanner Witt (I'm guessing he goes to college)
  • Sam Weatherly
  • Colby Halter (Seems college bound)
  • Tyler McDonough
  • Braden Ward

It will be interesting to see if any of the guys I drafted here sign for the $20k allotment...otherwise, I'm looking at Bailey and Weatherly... and nothing more.

The knowledge gap in what a team knows vs what the random dude on the internet knows is tremendous... Witt and Halter are guys who may have had a high signing request. Their real agent didn't return my pretend call.

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

2020 Draft Day 1

Came into the day with the following as my big board:
  • Nick Gonzales
  • Emerson Hancock
  • Max Meyer
  • Patrick Bailey
  • Mick Abel
  • Reid Detmers
  • Tanner Witt
  • Bobby Miller
  • Tanner Burns
  • Sam Weatherly
  • Colby Halter
  • David Calabrese
  • Holden Powell
  • Tyler McDonough
  • Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
  • John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell... Also, see note below... this guy could go anywhere on my board from the Halter pick.
  • Patrick Riley
  • Kevin Abel
  • Luke Little
  • Adam Seminaris
  • Stephen Odina
  • Nick Frasso
  • Jason Savacool
  • Alex Toral

Gonzales goes 7, Hancock 6, and Meyer 3, meaning at 8, I'm taking Patrick Bailey. Welcome aboard, Patrick. Loved this piece in The Athletic.

Abel goes 15 and Detmers 10, meaning Tanner Witt is my pick at 34.

Important to note, Bobby Miller (29) and Tanner Burns (36) are also now off the board.

Heading into day 2, the board looks like this:

  • Sam Weatherly
  • Colby Halter
  • David Calabrese
  • Holden Powell
  • Tyler McDonough
  • Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
  • John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell.
  • Patrick Riley
  • Kevin Abel
  • Luke Little
  • Adam Seminaris
  • Stephen Odina
  • Nick Frasso
  • Jason Savacool
  • Alex Toral

More to come.

Monday, June 8, 2020

2020 Big Board

Because of the oddities of this draft, I'm going to include a few contingencies in y big board... which seems like the best way to approach things:

Here is the board:

  • Nick Gonzales- I had him below Hancock, but elite hitters are tough to find
  • Emerson Hancock
  • Max Meyer
  • Patrick Bailey
  • Mick Abel- I'm moving him ahead of Detmers. He's the top HS RHP... and might be slipping due to uncertainty
  • Reid Detmers
  • Tanner Witt
  • Bobby Miller
  • Tanner Burns
  • Sam Weatherly
  • Colby Halter
  • David Calabrese
  • Holden Powell- Moved him up to make it more likely we land him (assuming we don't draft McMillon)
  • Tyler McDonough
  • Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
  • John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell... Also, see note below... this guy could go anywhere on my board from the Halter pick.
  • Patrick Riley
  • Kevin Abel
  • Luke Little
  • Adam Seminaris
  • Stephen Odina
  • Nick Frasso
  • Jason Savacool
  • Alex Toral

Tyler Brown has been dropped from the list because he says he's going back to school.

There is a version of this draft that started off with 2 or 3 HS prospects (it wouldn't be crazy to get Abel, Witt and Halter). If that happens, I'm going to nee to use my 4th and 5th round picks on seniors to create some financial flexibility. The idea here is to say "after 3 HS players are picked, I'm switching to college seniors"... and that list is as follows:

  • John McMillon- He's the only one who's also on my big board.
  • Kyle Mora
  • Luke Smith
  • Duke Ellis

I'd offer the full $20k to any player on my board who isn't drafted... I'm going to assume my team's owner isn't being penny-wise and pound-foolish.

Wednesday can't come soon enough!

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Franchise Draft Update 2016-2019

I got to thinking that it might be worth a look back to see where I hit, and perhaps where I missed, in recent drafts before the 2020 MLB draft is upon us.

2016 Draft Haul-

  • Dakota Hudson
  • Chris Okey
  • Anthony Kay
  • Ronnie Dawson
  • Logan Gray- 2016 me is stunned this guy isn't on a hall of fame trajectory
  • Kobie Taylor
  • Andrew Calica
  • Clate Schmidt
  • Trey York
  • Mitchell Jordan
In 2016, the two players I really wanted to get a hold of that I didn't were Garret Hampson (he's quite good) and Ryan Moseley (who's in th Dodger system).

2017 Draft Haul-

  • Keston Hiura
  • Quentin Holmes
  • Keegan Thompson
  • Nick Allen
  • James Karinchak
  • Justin Yurchak
  • Chase Pinder
  • Andrew Beckwith (went 960 in real life, KC)
Though he didn't sign this year, I also drafted Tarik Skubal. Talk about one who got away*.

2018 Draft Haul-

  • Griffin Roberts
  • Nick Northcut
  • Colton Eastman
  • Davis Martin
  • John Aiello
  • Matt Mercer
  • Zac Susi
  • Joe Demers
  • Tarik Skubal *or not
  • Mickey Gasper
I had to retrofit this one a bit, assuming the same decision early in the draft with Roberts and Northcut, but actually extending out the board.

The good news is that I stuck to my guns on Skubal, who turns this disaster of a draft into a not-so-bad haul, even if it went a very round about way to getting there. Jarren Duran was too low on my board, and is the one that got away here.

2019 Draft Haul-

  • CJ Abrams
  • Michael Massey
  • Logan Driscoll
  • Kyle McCann
  • Andre Pallante
  • Anthony Prato
  • Ryan Ward
  • Jeff Belge
Sebastian Keane is a guy I would have loved to have signed here, but it wasn't meant to be.

Breaking this into tiers (using Fangraphs' Board) with a major hat tip to Eric (and Kiley) based on Future Value (and prospect ranking in parenthesis):

55

  • CJ Abrams (number 22)
50
  • Tarik Skubal (number 53)
  • James Karinchak (Number 115)
45
  • Anthony Kay
  • Nick Allen
40+
  • Mike Massey
40
  • Ronnie Dawson
  • Kyle McCann
35+
  • Andre Pallante
  • Griffin Roberts
  • Matt Mercer
  • Logan Driscoll
  • Quentin Holmes
  • Keegan Thompson

Three of the top 115 prospects feels light, though it also excludes Hiura and Hudson, who are already contributing in the majors.

All told, it's possible that the makings/majority of a big league pitching staff are here, with Hudson, Skubal, and Kay forming the basis of a rotation (Thompson and Pallante on the way), and Karinchak, Mercer and any hopes of a bounceback for Roberts being a potentially good section of the bullpen.

I've got a lot of catching, for better or worse, and the middle of the diamond looks really good from a depth chart perspective (Abrams and Hiura could be a very interesting pair, and Allen would be a great trade chip or defensive sub, while Massey is also still there improving).

It's not a perfect system by any stretch of the imagination, but it isn't a bad one either. Lots of role players/trade chips, and a few really strong core players.

Looking forward to seeing what we can add to it in a week!

6/8/2020 Editor's note... changed Nick Allen to 45 FV and added Kyle McCann because of an update on Fangraphs