Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 2- A sniper

In the first post of this series, I detailed the approach to team building I've got. Short version... Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams are the core of this year, and the future, and the Celtics should do everything possible to supplment those guys.

The first type of player that would help is a sharp shooter.

Kemba Walker is obviously on the roster, and word on the street is that he's pretty darn good. When healthy, he's downright unstoppable. So, in general, Kemba can be the right fit here.

But Kemba has some injury concerns, and isn't exactly getting younger.

Because of the financial situation the team is in (Keith Smith breaks it down here), I think it would be beneficial to keep Kemba, and then look to find someone in the draft who could be a fit next to the Core 4. To me, there are a few names that make sense, with Tyrese Haliburton being the absolute perfect fit (the idea of Haliburton and Smart feeding the wings, and cutting hard off of screens from Theis/one of the Williams boys is almost too much for me to take). Assuming no deal to move up in the draft though, Tyrell Terry and Desmond Bane would also be fantastic options.

Going the draft route, however, means the Celtics might not end up with immediate help here. Sure, Walker, Smart and Brown could continually man the guard spots (sometimes with all 3 of them on the court), but this set up allows Walker to be targeted late in games, and requies some really aggressive offense/defense switching when it's close and late. That's not the worst thing in the world.

The Celtics have Brad Wannamaker (if they resign him), Carson Edwards, Tremont Waters... Wannamaker would be nice to have back (Anything is Poddible accurately refers to him as 'sturdy'... which isn't a bad thing for a 4th guard who allows the team enough depth to play 3 guard lineups). Edwards had a good shooting day, once.

Again, the goal is to find someone who can fit in with the Core 4 for this season, and lots more seasons to come. As such, I'm hoping that the C's can unload a few spare parts and find a way to add Haliburton, Bane or Terry.

***I wrote this with the idea that Kemba won't be traded, a position that feels super justifiable. He's an all star, playing on a max contract, and might be viewed as damaged goods by other teams. That said, if Danny gets a deal that makes sense, we'd need to be in the market for a sniper that can help in the near term. Assuming there isn't a guard coming back in the Walker deal, my fallback option (borrowed from the Athletic), is Langston Galloway. He'd be a strong 6th man who can fit into a couple different versions of small ball for the Celtics.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 1

Though I'm usually a college basketball fan, the pandmeic elminated a lot of choices, but did open my eyes to how much fun the NBA can be. As with the Red Sox, I tend to have a Boston loyalty, making an offseason series of shadow GM post for the Celtics seem logical.

Here goes.

Yes, the Celtics lost to the Heat, while playing short handed (to be fair, karma wasn't kind to the Heat and the Lakers now have 17 titles after defeating a short handed team... heck Pat Reilly talked about how the lakers absolutely won, but the Heat could deserve an asterisk). That said, the Heat did exploit a number of issues besides the Celtics injuries (hello Zone defense).

For me, the core of this Celtis team, both right this minute, and over the next few years, is 4 players deep

• Jayson Tatum
• Jaylen Brown
• Marcus Smart
• Grant Williams

The 4 of them can all pass, play defense, hit 3s, and they can switch everything. It's 4/5th of the Warriors Death Lineup, but younger. They can all also play multiple positions, with Smart as a 1/2, Brown a 2/3, Tatum a 3/4 and Williams a 4/5.

In other words, there's a boatload of versatility here, so instead of searching for supprt players who can fill multiple roles, it's possible to augment these four guys with players who do one or two things really well.

Let's discuss the 4 players who'd be ideal suppport for Smart, Grant and the Jay's.

The first type of player that would fit here is another guard, ideally somone who can be a facilitator, but can also shoot the lights out (another sniper would give it the full on 5-out offense that Celtics fans have continually been craving). Though his defense leaves something to be desired, the reality is that Kemba Walker is already in green, and can absolutely be a perfect fit next to these guys. We saw the Celtics lineup of Walker, Smart, Tatum, Brown and Theis wreak havoc in the playoffs... it isn't hard to make a compelling argument that running it back has some serious merits... especially if Williams can soak up some of the minutes Theis misses due to the war on fouls. The picks won't be as aggressive with Grant out there, but the ball movement might actually be better with Williams as a 2nd/3rd facilitator.

The second thing this group could use is a point forward, somone who can serve as a secondary facilitator, fit into the switch-everything scheme, and might be able to give teams a different look (especially if this player is paired with Kemba, which allows him to play off the ball a bit more). This role should also be a player who alternates with Smart (and Tatum?) hanging out at the elbow against the zone. Fortunately for the Celtics, there's Gordon Hayward, who is on the roster, seems likely to opt-in, and fits this description to a T.

These guys need a center who can body up the big guys, open lanes via the pick, and serve as a defensive anchor. If this player can shoot it from 3, that's ideal, even if it's only a couple times per game. They have an option on this player with Theis, who is sort of a perfect glue guy for this roster. Again, if we assume Grant Williams soaks up some backup minutes at the 5, and that Robert Williams can also be a conributor (more on this in a further post), this position might be in good shape, despite thousands of variations of Gordon Hayward for Andre Drummond/Myles Turner deals basically flooding the Trade Machine.

That leaves open a roster spot that's been a blind spot for Danny Ainge for years... a stretch 4. James Posey was the last one the Celtics had (they won a championship with him). This position could also be a freakishly athletic pogo-stick of a player who happens to be a strong defender. My personal belief is that the Celtics would still be one title in front of the Lakers had Danny been able to find one of these guys in 2008. I know the Perk injury was an issue, but Phil Jackson's adjustment to move Lamar Odom to Point-4, which took Kevin Garnett, Boston's best interior defender, out to the 3 point line (while Gasol feasted on a worn-out Rasheed Wallace) was the straw that broke the camel's back. As I recall, Jamario Moon was available that season at the trade deadline for a used basketball and a half drunken diet coke. Moon would have allowed Garnett to go head to head with Gasol (or allowed Garnett and Wallace to each play ~30 minutes, staying fresh), and instead of the 17-17 we're at with titles... it'd be 18-16.

That would bring us to an 8 man rotation, which means 8 guys who play 30 minutes per night (seems ideal), and then you can look at the rest of the bench as player to develop (and/or specialists).

Over the next few posts, I'll delve into each of the positions I think the Celtics should be looking at, with options (short and long term) on how to fill the roles.

2020 Draft Day 2 diary

If you missed yesterday's post, my fake Padres added Patrick Bailey and Tanner Witt (battery of the future?).

(2:00pm PT) Coming into the day, here is my board:

• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

With the 45th pick, I'm taking Sam Weatherly

(3:22pm) As the second round concludes, I'm worried no one has drafted Witt in real life, who's rumored to have a first round asking price. I was hopeful Cleveland, TB or LAD would have hopped in at the end of the 2nd, because those feel like 3 amazing landing spots for him (the Dodgers grabbing Landon Knack at the end of the round makes me wonder if they'll do it in the 2nd supplemental, and I'm crossing my fingers).

(3:31) Nope. They took Beeter... Miller, Knack and Beeter is a heck of a draft haul.

(3:49) The Astros took Santos, and it's making me think that I will end up needing to remember an extra pick next year. Onto the 3rd round, where I'm hoping for Halter.

(4:00) I'm wondering if this is one of those drafts where I got too cute, went too deep, and will end up signing like... 1 player.

(4:08) Colby Halter is there, and I'm excited to add him (who knows if he'll sign at this point?). In real-life, the Padres snagged Cole Wilcox, who feels like a steal if he signs.

(4:25)- Weatherly and Calabrese go back to back in real life... Powell is next on my board.

(4:53)- Powell goes to Was.

(5:10)<---Have to log off for a bit.. Will recap the rest of the draft in hindsight.

Houston took Tyler Brown? Thought he wasn't going to sign. Gah!

Frasso goes to the Blue Jays

Tyler McDonough is the pick in the 4th.

Little goes to the Cubs

Really like the Brewers pick of Wiemer. He was on an early follow list for me, but didn't make the final version

Ward would be my final pick here.

I very much like the Angels pick of Mason Hickman.

My final draft ends up with

• Patrick Bailey
• Tanner Witt (I'm guessing he goes to college)
• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter (Seems college bound)
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward

It will be interesting to see if any of the guys I drafted here sign for the $20k allotment...otherwise, I'm looking at Bailey and Weatherly... and nothing more.

The knowledge gap in what a team knows vs what the random dude on the internet knows is tremendous... Witt and Halter are guys who may have had a high signing request. Their real agent didn't return my pretend call.

2020 Draft Day 1

Came into the day with the following as my big board:

• Nick Gonzales
• Emerson Hancock
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Mick Abel
• Reid Detmers
• Tanner Witt
• Bobby Miller
• Tanner Burns
• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell... Also, see note below... this guy could go anywhere on my board from the Halter pick.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

Gonzales goes 7, Hancock 6, and Meyer 3, meaning at 8, I'm taking Patrick Bailey. Welcome aboard, Patrick. Loved this piece in The Athletic.

Abel goes 15 and Detmers 10, meaning Tanner Witt is my pick at 34.

Important to note, Bobby Miller (29) and Tanner Burns (36) are also now off the board.

Heading into day 2, the board looks like this:

• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

More to come.

2020 Big Board

Because of the oddities of this draft, I'm going to include a few contingencies in y big board... which seems like the best way to approach things:

Here is the board:

• Nick Gonzales- I had him below Hancock, but elite hitters are tough to find
• Emerson Hancock
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Mick Abel- I'm moving him ahead of Detmers. He's the top HS RHP... and might be slipping due to uncertainty
• Reid Detmers
• Tanner Witt
• Bobby Miller
• Tanner Burns
• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell- Moved him up to make it more likely we land him (assuming we don't draft McMillon)
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell... Also, see note below... this guy could go anywhere on my board from the Halter pick.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

Tyler Brown has been dropped from the list because he says he's going back to school.

There is a version of this draft that started off with 2 or 3 HS prospects (it wouldn't be crazy to get Abel, Witt and Halter). If that happens, I'm going to nee to use my 4th and 5th round picks on seniors to create some financial flexibility. The idea here is to say "after 3 HS players are picked, I'm switching to college seniors"... and that list is as follows:

• John McMillon- He's the only one who's also on my big board.
• Kyle Mora
• Luke Smith
• Duke Ellis

I'd offer the full $20k to any player on my board who isn't drafted... I'm going to assume my team's owner isn't being penny-wise and pound-foolish.

Wednesday can't come soon enough!

Franchise Draft Update 2016-2019

I got to thinking that it might be worth a look back to see where I hit, and perhaps where I missed, in recent drafts before the 2020 MLB draft is upon us.

2016 Draft Haul-

• Dakota Hudson
• Chris Okey
• Anthony Kay
• Ronnie Dawson
• Logan Gray- 2016 me is stunned this guy isn't on a hall of fame trajectory
• Kobie Taylor
• Andrew Calica
• Clate Schmidt
• Trey York
• Mitchell Jordan

In 2016, the two players I really wanted to get a hold of that I didn't were Garret Hampson (he's quite good) and Ryan Moseley (who's in th Dodger system).

2017 Draft Haul-

• Keston Hiura
• Quentin Holmes
• Keegan Thompson
• Nick Allen
• James Karinchak
• Justin Yurchak
• Chase Pinder
• Andrew Beckwith (went 960 in real life, KC)

Though he didn't sign this year, I also drafted Tarik Skubal. Talk about one who got away*.

2018 Draft Haul-

• Griffin Roberts
• Nick Northcut
• Colton Eastman
• Davis Martin
• John Aiello
• Matt Mercer
• Zac Susi
• Joe Demers
• Tarik Skubal *or not
• Mickey Gasper

I had to retrofit this one a bit, assuming the same decision early in the draft with Roberts and Northcut, but actually extending out the board.

The good news is that I stuck to my guns on Skubal, who turns this disaster of a draft into a not-so-bad haul, even if it went a very round about way to getting there. Jarren Duran was too low on my board, and is the one that got away here.

2019 Draft Haul-

• CJ Abrams
• Michael Massey
• Logan Driscoll
• Kyle McCann
• Andre Pallante
• Anthony Prato
• Ryan Ward
• Jeff Belge

Sebastian Keane is a guy I would have loved to have signed here, but it wasn't meant to be.

Breaking this into tiers (using Fangraphs' Board) with a major hat tip to Eric (and Kiley) based on Future Value (and prospect ranking in parenthesis):

55

• CJ Abrams (number 22)

50

• Tarik Skubal (number 53)
• James Karinchak (Number 115)

45

• Anthony Kay
• Nick Allen

40+

• Mike Massey

40

• Ronnie Dawson
• Kyle McCann

35+

• Andre Pallante
• Griffin Roberts
• Matt Mercer
• Logan Driscoll
• Quentin Holmes
• Keegan Thompson

Three of the top 115 prospects feels light, though it also excludes Hiura and Hudson, who are already contributing in the majors.

All told, it's possible that the makings/majority of a big league pitching staff are here, with Hudson, Skubal, and Kay forming the basis of a rotation (Thompson and Pallante on the way), and Karinchak, Mercer and any hopes of a bounceback for Roberts being a potentially good section of the bullpen.

I've got a lot of catching, for better or worse, and the middle of the diamond looks really good from a depth chart perspective (Abrams and Hiura could be a very interesting pair, and Allen would be a great trade chip or defensive sub, while Massey is also still there improving).

It's not a perfect system by any stretch of the imagination, but it isn't a bad one either. Lots of role players/trade chips, and a few really strong core players.

Looking forward to seeing what we can add to it in a week!

6/8/2020 Editor's note... changed Nick Allen to 45 FV and added Kyle McCann because of an update on Fangraphs

Early 2020 MLB Draft Big Board

This draft is incredibly hard to figure out. It's SO short. It's SO deep.

It's SO... complicated.

Usually, a few weeks before the draft I end up feeling like it would be great to trade down and end up with a few players who fit into my typical draft approach.

That is:

• College kids who've performed well against the cream of the crop, either on the Cape or Team USA (ideally pitchers who look like they can be innings eaters or hitters who fall into the 2b/3b/RF player type),
• A couple super high upside HSers to dream on (athletic pitchers or guys with tremendous up-the-middle tools).
• At least one college reliever that may or may not be able to move quickly, or develop into a multi-inning opener/headliner.

I'm also a sucker for players from non-powerhouse baseball areas (Northeast, Pacific Northwest, Nevada) and I can't get enough of the Big West.

The decision a few years back to use the Padres was a good one; in a 5 round draft, having an extra pick in the mid-30s feels like a crazy blessing.

My top 5 players have pretty much been set in stone all year, in no small part because of the shortened season.

• Emerson Hancock
• Nick Gonzales
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Reid Detmers

I debate Hancock vs Gonzales, a lot (though I suspect neither will be there at the 8th pick). If they were both somehow there at the 8th pick, I'd probably lean hitter (and Gonzales fits in with the Huira pick a few years back).

Coming into the draft, I feel relatively good that at least one of my top 4 players will be there. Detmers is sort of my safety pick. However, if all this goes to hell (assuming Torkelson Martin and those 5 are the first 7 picks), I'm going to look at

• Mick Abel

HS pitchers are always risky, but it seems like the pendulum has swung too far right now... and it's possible that Abel at 8 is somehow a reach pick according to the industry, and not high enough because of risk aversion. Abel vs Detmers was actually a big debate for me.

With the 34th pick, I've got the desire to play a lotto ticket. If he's there, I'm taking

• Tanner Witt

He's a two way player who's been (loosely) comp'd to Kris Bryant as a hitter. However, if I go with Abel in the first (not likely, but possible), I'd want to be certain I get one of the following college pitchers (over Witt):

• Bobby Miller- Showed the sort of progress I'd want to see a pitcher make, and comes from a great school in Louisville (Dan McDonnell was effusive in his praise for this guy on a D1Baseball Podcast)
• Tanner Burns- He's got ace=level stuff, and can be an innings eater.
• Sam Weatherly- This guy checks a lot of boxes. He's got experience starting and relieving. he was in the middle of a tremendous breakout. I absolutely over=-value Clemson pitchers.

Those guys are also my top targets with the 45th pick.

Here is the rest of my big board, with some comments here and there:

• Colby Halter- He's higher on my board than most, but he's a gamer who will be a first rounder in a few years.
• Tyler Brown- He's a relief pitcher with 3 quality pitches, and not a ton of mileage on his arm. There's a chance he's a full-fledged starter, but he could also end up being a headliner (throwing 4 or 5 innings as the second pitcher on a given day). Lately, I've come around on the idea of carrying 4 workhorse SPs, and a couple opener/headliner types of pitchers. Brown fits into that development mold (He and Weatherly would make for an interesting piggyback option),
• David Calabrese- He's a Canadian HSer with good plate discipline and tremendous speed. It isn't a draft unless I reach for a stolen base threat.
• Kevin Abel- Oregon State- Was once a sure fire first round pick (and College WS hero). He'd be a good get.
• Tyler McDonough- NC State- Switch hitting grinder with experience at catcher, 2b and CF
• Braiden Ward- Washington- If I get Calabrese, I'd drop Ward to my 'sign after the draft' list. If I miss on Calabrese, I bump him up in front of Abel.
• Patrick Riley- Northeast player who are heading to Vandy are my heroin (Isan Diaz, Rhett Wiseman and Kobie Taylor are previous examples, and I hate myself for not having Treyjean Fletcher ranked well on last year's board).
• Luke Little- San Jacito- I know he doesn't *really* throw 105.... but he's the sort of high end flame thrower who could end up dominating out of the pen.
• Adam Seminaris- LB State- He was carving this year... would have loved to see his final stat line. And I do love my Dirt Dogs
• Stephen Ondina- PR (little guy who can run)
• Holden Powell- UCLA- If I get Brown and/or Weatherly, I'm not sure I keep Powell on my list.
• Nick Frasso- LMU- A Frday starter with good stuff.
• Jason Savacool- Upstate NY and MD commit
• Alex Toral- My system has quite a few power hitting, lousy fielding 1b/DH types, but Toral was a guy I liked coming out of HS.

I think my ideal draft haul is either 4 college players and 2 HSers, or 3 and 3.

For purposes of this draft, I'd offer the full $20k teams are allowed to bid to undrafted FAs to everyone left on the list who isn't picked.

The length of the draft makes this a hard one to figure out. I could walk out of a typical draft with Weatherly, Brown, McDonough and Ward on the college side, Halter and Riley on the HS side, and be perfectly happy.

Thinking outside the box... there's might be a way to line up those 4 college players and shoot the moon (grabbing Abel and Witt 8th and 34th as a way to inject a ton of upside, balanced by the 4 safer college picks as the draft moves on, though this misses on Halter). Feels like what the Mets tried a year ago, and given the oddity of this draft... might make sense as a way to Zig when everyone else is allegedly going to Zag.