Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 9- The Offseason

For someone who really isn't an NBA guy, this has turned into a pretty long series of posts. It began outling my Core-4 theory, which is simply that Smart, Brown Tatum and Grant Williams form an ideal complement to each other, and can be a death lineup over the next 5 years that contiues to add wrinkes and wreak havoc. Of course, basketball is played 5-on-5, so it's important to identify the missing pieces to support the Core-4.

• A sniper (who can ideally play both ways)
• A point-forward (that can take sompressure off the guards, and serve as a zone breaker).
• A center (that can defend the rim, set screens, and handle some dirty work).
• A stretch-4 (that fits into the mold of Tayshaun Prince or Jamario Moon).

Along the way, there was a bad idea, which was followed by some deeper thoughts and a draft overview.

TL;DR- a random dude on the interwebs wrote WAY too many words... and as it turns out... still had many more to write.

That brings me here... a post to outline my approach to the Celtics offseason.

Gordon Hayward is the biggest question. Will he opt-in? Does he want to play somewhere else? Celtics Blog offered a deep primer on the decision. If I were Brad Stevens or Danny Ainge, I'd ask him what he wants, and assuming it isn't "a date with the Hawks, peace-out dude"... I'd try to accomodate. There's value in being an executive who does right by your players.

For this reason, there won't be any discussion of a Kemba Walker deal here either. Kemba says he wants to learn to win, and I'm willing to let Brad Stevens teah him.

If Gordon wants to stay, I'm excited about it. My top 6 from a team that had a very realistic shot at the finals are all coming back. A little more depth (and some injury luck), and this was a championship team.

Let's assume Gordon opts in, and wants to come back, which to be frank, is the option I'm sort of hoping for. At that point, I am going to try to thread the needle, adding a couple veterans who can help the roster today. and using the draft to find a few projects that, in a couple years, could be the ideal supporting cast around Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams.

In an ideal world, I'd find a way to sign both Jeff Green and Langston Galloway. They'd slot in as backups, combining with Smart and the Williamses to give me a lengthy, strong 2-way second unit (I'm assuming that Hayward and Kemba would play a bunch together with some the second unit to keep the ball moving, meaning Smart and Grant play a lot with the Jays).

In fairness, I don't think this is an option, using only the MLE and a veteran's mimumum offer, so I'd focus on Green, and then look at some combination of the 14th pick, Semi Ojeleye and Romeo Langford (along with Poirier, if needed, for salary-mathcing purposes) as a trade package for a guard who can hit from deep (Ben Mclemore comes to mind; more in a minute).

The 14th pick is a super interesting asset to me, becasue if I can't do a deal for a sniper, I might just try to move up and ensure I get one of Precious Achiuwa (top target) or Tyrese Haliburton. Both would help the Celtics in the short and long term. Both have super high upsides.

This is the whole "thread the needle" point. Using the pick (or even dealing up) on Achiuwa likely limits my ability to deal for a guard. In trades, Mclemore is a target for me. The Rockets seems like a natural target. They have a new GM, we have a few pieces that could be interesting, including Semi, who fits into the mold of undersized, strong guy who hits occasional 3s (PJ Tucker part 2?). Does Semi + Langford for Mclemore get a deal through, allowing me to focus on Precious (and Bolmero) in the draft?

Actually, yes, it does:

In the draft, Precious is obviously the top target with (an upgrade on) the 14th pick. If I need the pick to deal for a sniper, I'm taking a few projects with the leftover picks, ideally ending up with a combination of Bolmero (draft and stash), Isiah Joe/Emmanuel Quickley and Kenyon Martin Jr.

The roster now looks like this:

• Guards- Walker, Smart, Mclemore, Quickley/Joe (development project)
• Wings-Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Bolmero (Stash)
• Bigs- Theis, Grant Williams, Jeff Green, Robert Williams, Precious or KJ Martin (development project)

The development projects listed there join Taco Fall and Tremont Waters in the G-league.

FWIW: this actually might be my perfect offseason. It's quaint, but it improves the Celtics' depth immensely, while also keeping an eye focused on a supporting cast for the prime years of my Core 4.

****Moving on to Hayward wanting to go to Indiana.

If Gordon wants to go to Indiana.. I'm going to accomodate it, and my suggested approach would be as follows:

Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Drummond start games for me, and can be one version of a 4-out offense. Jeremy Lamb is my new 6th man. Drummond plays a lot with our second string, because having a big down low to truly bully second units for other teams mitigates some of the depth issues... and because Dan Theis has proven himself capable of being a key cog with the other 4 starters.

I'd immediately throw my full MLE at Shaq Harrison, because he fits the Point-Forward role, can be a backup to at least 3 spots (PG, SG and SF), and he's a tremendous defender.

Ironically, the drum I've been beating this whole series about a stretch 4 is going to go unanswered, barring Jeff Green accepting the veteran's minimum (seems unlikely). As such, in this version of reality, I'm probably going to keep Semi Ojeleye, who can, at the very least, get in the way of guys like Giannis and Lebron.

Depth chart is:

• PG- Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart (starter)
• SG- Marcus Smart, Jeremy Lamb, Jaylen Brown (depending on matchups)
• SF-Jaylen Brown, Shaq Harrison, Jason Tatum (again, matchups), Semi Ojeleye
• PF- Jason Tatum, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye
• C- Drummond, Theis, Robert Williams

It makes me sad to give up my Jeff Green pipe-dream here, but Harrison is too valuable a contributor in this version of the Celtics to forego.

My draft approach here actually doesn't change from the previous version. Precious is the target at 14 (and I'm willing to deal up to get him). Bolmero and Quickley/Joe are who I'm hoping for at 26 and 30.

***The curious case of Robert Williams

The depth charts above leave open an interesting issue: Daniel Theis will be a free agenct after this season, and as the team is constructed, Robert Williams is his heir apparent. The challenge, however, is that Theis is more of a dirty-work glue-guy (which seems to be something Brad Stevens likes in his centers), and Williams has a much different skill set.

This makes me debate William's role, in the short and long term. A trio of the Williamses and Precious seems like it would be super athletic and could give other teams fits moving forward... but it lacks a certain toughness. I keep coming back to Paul Reed as another draft project to target, not at the expense of the guys I've already mentioned, but as a Theis replacement in a year (or maybe a little further out). I love the idea of using Grant as a smallball 5, but Steve Kerr showed with Draymond (and Spolstra with Bam this year) that you can't have the small ball 5 take abuse in the post for 30 minutes per game in the regular season. This means the Celtics will need to have a backup C, who theoretically plays 15-20 minutes per game in the regular season (Grant plays a lot of 4, and slides down to the 5 to close out most games... at least until the playoffs roll around). Maybe there's a way to buy an extra early second round pick to get ahold of Reed and have extra options moving forwrd. This would give us another year to really identify what we have with Timelord, see how it fits into what we want to do, and then make a more educated decision on who will be the defensive anchor for the next few years of the Core 4.

This also makes me want to see what teams might be willing to offer for Robert Williams, beauty being in the eye of the beholder and all. Is there a team drafting in the top 10 or so that might be willing to part with a pick for Williams and the 30th pick? If so, does it make a Halliburton/Precious draft a possibility?

Tangentially related, Paul Reed is particularly interesting if Gordon Hayward opts in; at that point, we're not going to improve the 5 all that much, unless we're using the MLE on Harry Giles (I get the allure, but think Green is a better target for the roster as currently built). Reed, Grant Williams and Precious could be a really interesting trio of bigs in a couple years, and it wouldn't be awful for Reed to be understudy to Theis, Precious to be understudy to Green, and Grant to bounce back and forth between thr 4 and the 5.

Assuming Gordon stays, I'd like to see the Celtics pick up a veteran 3rd guard (along with someone to groom as his replacement) and a veteran stretch 4 (again, along with someone to groom into his replacement). I'd also love to see them get ahold of Bolmero, as a Hayward replacement possibility in a year.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 8- The draft

This draft is super interesting.

As has been explained on every site that addresses it, there's no clear cut number one pick. There's a top tier of ~3 players, but I'm going to assume the Celtics won't have the ammo to trade up into the top 3 picks to get Ball, Wiseman or Edwards (no, Bill Simmons, we're not trading Marcus Smart), and to be frank, that's OK with me. I don't see any of those guys as a fit for the Celtics as constructed anyway.

There are two players I really love in this draft:

• Precious Achiuwa- In the rant about a stretch 4, I mentioned Precious as someone I think can be a defensive menace and DPOY over time. That makes him my top target.
• Tyrese Haliburton- Haliburton is my second favorite player in this draft, a near Macrus Smart clone who can play next to the original in the same way the Raptors use two point guards and wreak havoc.

There's a version of this draft where the Celtics could end up with both, and I'll explore that in the next post (the idea would be to take a step back this year, but get to the point where in a couple years, the Celtics have the core 4 in their prime, and a wicked group of supporting players.

After those two, I have a couple of players that I really like, who seem to fit what the Celtics do, and could be really interesting.

• Leondro Bolmero- I love this guy. I think he'll grow into a very similar player to Gordon Hayward (if Hayward opts-in and stays in Boston, we'd have his replacement in 12 months, assuming Hayward signs elsewhere as a free agent).

From there, things get interesting. I'd like a sniper, and there are 3 that could be a fit.

• Tyrell Terry- Potentially the best shooter in this class, and the Celtics could use another floor spacer. Terry would be heir-apparent to Kemba Walker, and could also play with Marcus Smart.
• Isiah Joe- I *think* that I like Joe better than Terry, because his fit is a little easier given the current team. Joe's big enough to play the 2 guard next to Kemba (a Kemba/Terry back court will likely get pushed around a bunch, and isn't usable against certain teams). There's also the chance Joe ends up being a better shooter than Terry.
• Emmanuel Quickley- If the Celtics miss out on Haliburton, Terry and Joe, there's a super shiny consolidation prize in Quickley. The Ringer's scouting report compares him to Ben Gordon (microwave scorer), BJ Armstrong (multiple time champion), and Jeff Hornacek (HOF). I mean... that's some lofty darn company. He's smaller than I'd like (so is Terry), so his fit next to Kemba isn't ideal. But my goodness, those comps are amazing.

In terms of other players, there are a few more that largely fit as bigs (though the first one comes with a question mark about his position)

• Tyler Bey- To be totally transparent, I have no idea what to make of Tyler Bey. He's potentially a power forward that can switch everything (The Ringer's draft guide calls him a defensive lynchpin). Depending on the source he's listed as a big, a wing, or a guard who's got some length. He doesn't have a tremendous handle, but he can be a 3 and D guy who's also bigger than some of the folks who might be defending him... All I know is that his versatility seems like somehting Brad Stevens would take advantage of.... and that's not a bad thing. Over time, he could legitimately by the team's 6th man who's actually the primary backup for all 5 spots on the floor. Because he fits everywhere (and no where), I'm kind of smitten.
• Killian Tillie- He's sort of a poor man's Daniel Theiss, albeit with injury concerns and a better deep ball. If you're betting on talent, and considering a load management strategy (as a way to keep him healthy), He's a really interesting part of a 3-headed monster at the 5.
• Paul Reed This guy is interesting to me as someone who might be groomed into Daniel Theis' role. I don't love him as a 4, but as a hustle guy who does the dirty work, I'm absolutely on board.
• Kenyon Martin Jr- If the Celtics miss on Precious, I'm OK with Martin as a consolation prize, albeit one who needs some extra development time.

This draft has a lot of "choose your own adventure" for me. It all starts with the 14th pick. If there's a (reasonable) way to move up to ensure Precious is available, I make the move. He's going to be a stud, especially in a Brad Stevens defense.

However, if ther'es no way to get Precious or Halibutron, I maintain the hypothesis from the state of the roster post, it could make sense to deal the 14th pick for a pick next year. In that case, the Celtics could reasonably end up with Bolmero, Joe and KJ Martin this year (plus future assets as we start to rebuild our war chest). While none would contribute too much immediately (Joe has potential, of course), that's an amazing haul, and would provide a longer term fit for 3 of the 4 support roles I want to have players in around the Core 4. This approach is like a college team looking at an incoming freshman class and red-shirting a few guys. I'm perfectly OK with this, and think the Celtics could develop all 3 into major contributors.

All told, this draft is fascinating, and I can't wait to see what comes of it.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 7- State of the Roster

Did you know that the Celtics had 7 rookies on the team last year?

My guess is that you did... because it is on every mock draft, Celtics message board, rumor website, basketball podcast, blog, and I'm pretty sure it's been graffiti'd onto multiple walls in the Boston Garden.

Yes, the team has 4 draft picks (including their second rounder), and yes, the roster is incredibly full already, meaning that something has to give.

We've alread covered what the team needs, and in truth, it isn't hard to break it down to one type of player (a stretch 4) as the main target.

Walker, Smart, Brown as guards, Hayward and Tatum as forwards, Theiss and the Williams(es) is a pretty compelling 8 man roster... throw in Jeff Green and it's a heck of a lineup.

Noticeable absent are Carsen Edwards, Brad Wannameker, Semi Ojeleye, Tremont Waters, Enes Kanter, Javonte Green, Voncent Poirier, etc.

My feeling is that there should be an opportunity to consolidate some of these guys, and also to start to load up the cupboard with extra picks moving forward. Dallas is said to be looking for 3 and D players... would they kick a 2nd round pick in a couple years over for Semi? Can we connect with someone who was super high on Langford last year at the draft and try to deal him, maybe even along with a lower first round pick this year, for a future 1st rounder (or maybe packaging Langford with a pick to move up a few slots)?

I've been writing this series so far with the idea of an 8 man roation, but in truth, given the injury histories of Hayward and Walker, it's probably better to roll 9 or 10 deep, though it's hard to get to 9 or 10 deep with talented players (and again, limited roster slots). This breaks out to 3 bigs, 3 wings, and 3 guards (which means we can always play some combination of 1-2 guards, 1-2 wings, and 1-2 bigs, depending on matchups). The idea of adding Green (a 3rd 'big' to go with Theis and Grant Williams) leaves the team short one guard, especially given Walker's knee (let's assume that Boston press gets to spend next season talking about 'maintenence days' with Kemba). Wanamaker or a better combo guard can fit in here pretty easily... but again, it's a full roster already. This also leaves means when Theis is in foul trouble (or the Celtics are playing against a team with a strong big), there isn't a real backup center as part of this 9 man approach.

So, we look at consolidating. Dealing up in the draft or dealing out of the draft (Langford plus the 30th pick for a first rounder next year, or 3 years out?) both work. A draft and stash move with Bolmero could also be good.

The other issue at hand here is where we can find a player who might help immediately, to serve as a sort of bridge between the aging guys (Kemba and Hayward) and the Core 4.

All this was a very rambling, stream of conscience way of saying that this offseason will be complicated. The Celtics can look for teams that had a belief in a younger player, and try to trade for future assets. Or they can try to find teams that have seen the best in one of these young guys and hope there's some institutional memory (maybe the Cavs remember Carsen Edwards having a hot few minutes?).

In thinking this post through, I realize I'll need to expand my possible trade targets/lists in an actual shadow offseason, since trades that send 2-3 players out and get one back could (will?) be the best way to truly improve this roster and get the Celtics ready for banner number 18.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 6- a Pipe Dream

Daryl Morey is taking the Sixers job, which seems... odd. He's coming into a weird situation where Co-GM (Co-to-the-GM for Office fans?) Elton Brand has already hired a coach in Doc Rivers, added some assistants, and doesn't actually have a roster that fits together (or come CLOSE to the small ball approach Morey seems to love).

So, let's go crazy:

The Celtics give up Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, and a boatload of young talent. They get Ben Simmons, who Brad Stevens would use all over the court, and next to Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams... might just put up a triple double every night. Harris comes off the bench as a substitute for... well, literally all 5 starters. It's a positionless, future-of-basketball type lineup... and because of the situation with the fit on the Sixers roster... it's not entirely crazy*

The Rockets get, essentially, almost a full lineup as they clear the deck chairs, and can then deal Westbrook if they see fit. Desite what they've said about remaining competitive, maybe there's a chance they want to start fresh with a new coach and new GM.

The Sixers get Daryl Morey's binky (James Harden) along with the best facilitator Harden has played with (aside from Chris Paul). They also get out from Tobias Harris' contract.

To me, Ben Simmons is just about the player I'd most want to see on a Brad Stevens roster. He can handle the Evan Turner role (point forward), slide down to the dunker position against smaller players (everyone in general... but imagine the Heat using Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson to defend against one of Tatum, Brown or Simmons), facilite, run the point and get out into space. The Celtics might be the most fun team in basketball after a deal like this.

*Who am I kidding, there's no earthly reason for the Sixers to even think about this deal.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 5- A stretch 4

In the first part of this series, I shared that the Stretch 4 position is, in my eyes, Danny Ainge's blind spot. In 2008, a Jamario Moon-type player (that is, a freakishly athletic combo forward who catch switch everything, and give players like Lebron trouble) would have won the Celtics an extra title with KG, Pierce, and Rondo.

The Celtics haven't had this type of player since James Posey, and it's been a thorn in their side, every single year. Heck, this year, the Heat took old friend Jae Crowder and turned him lose in the role, with tremendous success (Crowder isn't as athletic as Moon, or a few other players I'll mention here... but he shoots better than most of them).

Jerami Grant is the ideal fit for this Celtics team. He can be a 4 that's able to switch everything, provide tremendous help defense, shoot 3's, dunk over everyone, and yeah... the list goes on and on. The problem, of course, is that Jerami Grant isn't walking through that door. He's going to get paid a lot more than the Celtics can offer in free agency, and as explained previously, the C's can't do a sign and trade because of where they are in terms of the cap.

So, that means we're looking elsewhere.

In terms of trade options, James Johnson in Minnesota could work. He's quite pricey though, so there's no obvious fit for a deal here.

Danillo Gallinari fits the mold here, but seems likely to get more than the Celtics can offer in free agency. Though his defense leaves something to be desired for this role, he's a lights out shooter.

If Gallo's too expensive, well, the free agent pickings are actually pretty slim. Thabo Sefolosha? Meh. Marvin WIlliams? Bring back Semi? It's bleak.

There is, however, one name on the free agent list that makes some sense... even if there are Celtics fans who will hate this. Jeff Green could be a perfectly viable do-everything 4 who plays with Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Willams, facilitates like a maniac, makes the right reads/passes, hits corner 3s, and dives down to the dunker spot when guarded by a guard. Am I crazy to think that, on a minimum salary contract, this is the exact right player for the Celtics as currently constructed?

In the draft, there are a few guys that seems like they could fill this role over time... Precious Achiuwa is the top target for me, and if I were the Celtics, I'd happily consider moving up to get him. He's freakishly athletic, and could legimately end up in the defensive player of the year discussion if essentially turned into a free safety with lots of length and strong defenders around him.

Though he's not my preferred choice, I feel like Jaden McDaniels checks a lot of the boxes I'm looking at, as well as being a guy that falls into the Celtics' typical wheelhouse (highly regarded HS player who struggles in their first year at college).

Paul Reed from DePaul has a lot of the attributes I'm seeking here, and could be a fit. Should that fail... a lot of the same things can be said about Kenyon Martin Jr (the C's have apparently already spoken with him), who will need more development time, and could be a guy the Celtics look at later.

Next up, a pipedream (or 2), a state of the roster, and a draft big board, and then a full offseason plan to wrap everything together.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts - Part 4- The Center Position

Let me start by saying that Daniel Theis is a fantastic starting 5 for the Celtics, as currently constructed. I'm also, as mentioned previously, a fan of the C's using Grant Williams at the 5 as part of a death lineup, with Tatum, Brown, Smart and Walker/(Athletic4 TBD- post to come) in an offense/defense switcheroo.

This means we're realistically looking at a backup center, who ideally, does something that Theis doesn't as a way to add some variety, for something like 15-20 minutes per game. Let's explore some options here:

• The Andre Drummond/Gordon Hayward swap has been beaten into the ground on the Trade Machine, and it does, sort of make sense. Drummond would likely displace Theis as a starter, and there's soemthing to be said for having a beast down low that can carry the team when shooting slumps come. Against the Heat, the Celtics went into long droughts. Having a guy on the block who can occasionally be the focal point would be great. That said, Drummond isn't a guy who can be part of a lineup to close things out (awful foul shooting), which might actually be OK, since the Celtics can theoretically use him with bench players as a way to add consistency over 48 minutes. I thoroughly believe this is the role the Enes Kanter was always meant to fill, but his liability on defense suh that he never really got to do so (small spurts here and there excepted).
• Miles Turner is another guy who's getting a ton of digital heat as a possible solution for the Celtics, and I think he fits better with what the Celtics are trying to do (5-out offense). He and theis seem to be remarkably similar to me (Turner perhaps a little more lengthy and athletic, Theis a little more fundamentally sound).
• Harry Giles has gogtten a ton of press as a potential option as well, likely for the Celtics MLE. He's friends with Tatum (I don't love the precident of going hunting for one of his buddies), but more importantly, he's got tremendous talent and versatility. Depending on the direction the Celtics go with other targets, Giles could be a short term platoon with Theis, and possibly a longer term starter with the Core 4.
• It's impossible to do a post about the Celtics' center position (and future) without a shout to Robert Williams, who to be clear, belongs in the conversation. If we're looking for a big guy with athleticism, one that brings a dimension that Theis doesn't, and one who can contribute in a bunch of ways, thinking of this guy as one who might take "the leap" isn't the worst thing in the world. Again, there are a lot of variables out there, but Williams should have strong trade value if he's shopped, or could be the Celtics longer term answer at the 5. And that's the rub... is Williams worh more as a trade piece to help balance this roster than he is as a support piece around the Core 4?

A couple quick things here:

The name Enes Kanter isn't listed as an actual option, despite havign the option to come back to the Celtics on a $5 million player option. Short version: I don't think he's coming back. Whether it's by trade (meaning he opts in) or him simply opting out, I don't see a situation where he plays for the Green again, and I took his full page ad in the Boston Globe to be him thinking the same. I'll explore his role in the offseason in another post.

Taco Fall also isn't mentioned here. I've been focusing very heavuly on a top 8 or 9 player group with these posts so far, and will do one that includes a few players who should be focused on development. Fall is in this bucket, with the idea that he could be called upon in the event of injury to handle the backup 5 monutes that aren't used by Grant Williams in a small-ball way.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 3- a Point Forward

My basis for this exercise can be found here. TL;DR version- Smart, Brown Tatum and Grant WIlliams are the core of this team, both today and over the next few years. They need a few players to support them, including a sniper, a point forward, a center (coming soon) and a stretch-4 (same).

This post is about the point forward role, which should be a guy who can do a little bit of everything. The ideal candidate here is a guy like Gordon Hayward (hey... wait a minute!), but with his status up in the air due to a player option, this feels like a positoon worth exploring further in depth.

If Hayward opts in, and there's no deal to be had to add some more balance to the roster, that's a great spot for the Celtics to be in. Hayward is an ideal piece here, and I love the idea of rolling Kemba and Hwyard with some bench players to ensure the Celtics don't go through crazy scoring droughts. They can be tremendous together. I also love how much the ball movement improves when Hayward is on the court with the Jay's.

However, even if he opts in, there's a chance this is Hayward's last season with the Celtics, so finding a player who can handle this role over the long term feels prudent. That might mean looking at the draft, or it could be making a deal for a player currently in the NBA.

If we assume that Hayward won't be back next year (and a trade won't include some sort of point forward coming back), there are a few options I'd want the Celtics to explore.

There has been a lot of buzz about old friend Evan Turner coming back, but I'd rather focus on a younger version of Turner, Shaq Harrison from Chicago. he's a weird player, and a weird fit, but he's 6'7, a capabale ball handler, a switch-everything defender, and can play a bunch of positions. I think he'd be tremendous looking over the top of a zone from the elbow, and while his outside shooting leaves something to be desired, putting him on the floor with a few guys who can shoot will limit the issue.

Regardless of what happens with Hayward, I love the idesa of a draft and stash with Leondro Bolmaro, who's essentially a Gordon Hayward starter kit, and could step in next year to the role Hayward (or Harrison) would be handling this year.