- A sniper (who can ideally play both ways)
- A point-forward (that can take sompressure off the guards, and serve as a zone breaker).
- A center (that can defend the rim, set screens, and handle some dirty work).
- A stretch-4 (that fits into the mold of Tayshaun Prince or Jamario Moon).
Along the way, there was a bad idea, which was followed by some deeper thoughts and a draft overview.
TL;DR- a random dude on the interwebs wrote WAY too many words... and as it turns out... still had many more to write.
That brings me here... a post to outline my approach to the Celtics offseason.
Gordon Hayward is the biggest question. Will he opt-in? Does he want to play somewhere else? Celtics Blog offered a deep primer on the decision. If I were Brad Stevens or Danny Ainge, I'd ask him what he wants, and assuming it isn't "a date with the Hawks, peace-out dude"... I'd try to accomodate. There's value in being an executive who does right by your players.
For this reason, there won't be any discussion of a Kemba Walker deal here either. Kemba says he wants to learn to win, and I'm willing to let Brad Stevens teah him.
If Gordon wants to stay, I'm excited about it. My top 6 from a team that had a very realistic shot at the finals are all coming back. A little more depth (and some injury luck), and this was a championship team.
Let's assume Gordon opts in, and wants to come back, which to be frank, is the option I'm sort of hoping for. At that point, I am going to try to thread the needle, adding a couple veterans who can help the roster today. and using the draft to find a few projects that, in a couple years, could be the ideal supporting cast around Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams.
In an ideal world, I'd find a way to sign both Jeff Green and Langston Galloway. They'd slot in as backups, combining with Smart and the Williamses to give me a lengthy, strong 2-way second unit (I'm assuming that Hayward and Kemba would play a bunch together with some the second unit to keep the ball moving, meaning Smart and Grant play a lot with the Jays).
In fairness, I don't think this is an option, using only the MLE and a veteran's mimumum offer, so I'd focus on Green, and then look at some combination of the 14th pick, Semi Ojeleye and Romeo Langford (along with Poirier, if needed, for salary-mathcing purposes) as a trade package for a guard who can hit from deep (Ben Mclemore comes to mind; more in a minute).
The 14th pick is a super interesting asset to me, becasue if I can't do a deal for a sniper, I might just try to move up and ensure I get one of Precious Achiuwa (top target) or Tyrese Haliburton. Both would help the Celtics in the short and long term. Both have super high upsides.
This is the whole "thread the needle" point. Using the pick (or even dealing up) on Achiuwa likely limits my ability to deal for a guard. In trades, Mclemore is a target for me. The Rockets seems like a natural target. They have a new GM, we have a few pieces that could be interesting, including Semi, who fits into the mold of undersized, strong guy who hits occasional 3s (PJ Tucker part 2?). Does Semi + Langford for Mclemore get a deal through, allowing me to focus on Precious (and Bolmero) in the draft?
Actually, yes, it does:
In the draft, Precious is obviously the top target with (an upgrade on) the 14th pick. If I need the pick to deal for a sniper, I'm taking a few projects with the leftover picks, ideally ending up with a combination of Bolmero (draft and stash), Isiah Joe/Emmanuel Quickley and Kenyon Martin Jr.
The roster now looks like this:
- Guards- Walker, Smart, Mclemore, Quickley/Joe (development project)
- Wings-Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Bolmero (Stash)
- Bigs- Theis, Grant Williams, Jeff Green, Robert Williams, Precious or KJ Martin (development project)
The development projects listed there join Taco Fall and Tremont Waters in the G-league.
FWIW: this actually might be my perfect offseason. It's quaint, but it improves the Celtics' depth immensely, while also keeping an eye focused on a supporting cast for the prime years of my Core 4.
****Moving on to Hayward wanting to go to Indiana.
If Gordon wants to go to Indiana.. I'm going to accomodate it, and my suggested approach would be as follows:
Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Drummond start games for me, and can be one version of a 4-out offense. Jeremy Lamb is my new 6th man. Drummond plays a lot with our second string, because having a big down low to truly bully second units for other teams mitigates some of the depth issues... and because Dan Theis has proven himself capable of being a key cog with the other 4 starters.
I'd immediately throw my full MLE at Shaq Harrison, because he fits the Point-Forward role, can be a backup to at least 3 spots (PG, SG and SF), and he's a tremendous defender.
Ironically, the drum I've been beating this whole series about a stretch 4 is going to go unanswered, barring Jeff Green accepting the veteran's minimum (seems unlikely). As such, in this version of reality, I'm probably going to keep Semi Ojeleye, who can, at the very least, get in the way of guys like Giannis and Lebron.
Depth chart is:
- PG- Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart (starter)
- SG- Marcus Smart, Jeremy Lamb, Jaylen Brown (depending on matchups)
- SF-Jaylen Brown, Shaq Harrison, Jason Tatum (again, matchups), Semi Ojeleye
- PF- Jason Tatum, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye
- C- Drummond, Theis, Robert Williams
It makes me sad to give up my Jeff Green pipe-dream here, but Harrison is too valuable a contributor in this version of the Celtics to forego.
My draft approach here actually doesn't change from the previous version. Precious is the target at 14 (and I'm willing to deal up to get him). Bolmero and Quickley/Joe are who I'm hoping for at 26 and 30.
***The curious case of Robert Williams
The depth charts above leave open an interesting issue: Daniel Theis will be a free agenct after this season, and as the team is constructed, Robert Williams is his heir apparent. The challenge, however, is that Theis is more of a dirty-work glue-guy (which seems to be something Brad Stevens likes in his centers), and Williams has a much different skill set.
This makes me debate William's role, in the short and long term. A trio of the Williamses and Precious seems like it would be super athletic and could give other teams fits moving forward... but it lacks a certain toughness. I keep coming back to Paul Reed as another draft project to target, not at the expense of the guys I've already mentioned, but as a Theis replacement in a year (or maybe a little further out). I love the idea of using Grant as a smallball 5, but Steve Kerr showed with Draymond (and Spolstra with Bam this year) that you can't have the small ball 5 take abuse in the post for 30 minutes per game in the regular season. This means the Celtics will need to have a backup C, who theoretically plays 15-20 minutes per game in the regular season (Grant plays a lot of 4, and slides down to the 5 to close out most games... at least until the playoffs roll around). Maybe there's a way to buy an extra early second round pick to get ahold of Reed and have extra options moving forwrd. This would give us another year to really identify what we have with Timelord, see how it fits into what we want to do, and then make a more educated decision on who will be the defensive anchor for the next few years of the Core 4.
This also makes me want to see what teams might be willing to offer for Robert Williams, beauty being in the eye of the beholder and all. Is there a team drafting in the top 10 or so that might be willing to part with a pick for Williams and the 30th pick? If so, does it make a Halliburton/Precious draft a possibility?
Tangentially related, Paul Reed is particularly interesting if Gordon Hayward opts in; at that point, we're not going to improve the 5 all that much, unless we're using the MLE on Harry Giles (I get the allure, but think Green is a better target for the roster as currently built). Reed, Grant Williams and Precious could be a really interesting trio of bigs in a couple years, and it wouldn't be awful for Reed to be understudy to Theis, Precious to be understudy to Green, and Grant to bounce back and forth between thr 4 and the 5.
Assuming Gordon stays, I'd like to see the Celtics pick up a veteran 3rd guard (along with someone to groom as his replacement) and a veteran stretch 4 (again, along with someone to groom into his replacement). I'd also love to see them get ahold of Bolmero, as a Hayward replacement possibility in a year.
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