2018 Draft Big Board

Running quick this year: 1- Casey Mize 2- Jonathan India 3- Nick Madrigal 4- Griffin Roberts 5- Tim Cate 6- Matt Mclain (HS) 7- Colton Eastman 8- Davis Martin 9- John Aiello 10- Matt Mercer 11- Zac Susi 12- Joe Demers 13- Nick Northcut (HS) 14- Tarik Skubal 15- Mickey Gasper- Senior sign from Bryant 16- Jarren Durran 17- Alonso Jones

2017 draft big board and outcome

I really dropped the ball in terms of getting this put together in advance. I'm still mocking as the Padres, and this may be the first time in my draft mocking days that I've had a top 5 pick. My big board coming into the draft was actually kind of small.

• Keston Hiura- He's the best hitter in the draft, and has proven it against his peers on the international stage.
• Brandon McKay- I love his pitching numbers, and it helps that he can hit too (national league team and all)
• Evan White- Let's be clear, I'm assuming there is no way White makes it to me in the 2nd round (and I'm guessing one of Hiura or McKay end up on the team). But this is my perfect world, hope and pray scenario
• Quentin Holmes- The guy has 80 speed, and seems to be known all over as a gamer. I'm guessing this is my 2nd round pick, if everything goes well.
• Keegan Thompson- Love him. Have mock drafted him twice. I'm finally getting my guy, I hope.
• Nick Allen- Little guy with great D. I can't imagine he'll be around... BA seems to have him as a 1st rounder in podcasts.
• James Karinchak- A NE arm with great stuff and who showed 1st round abilities.
• Justin Yurchak- This Binghamton guy is somehow a personal cheeseball
• David Banuelos-He's a defensive stud. He might only make the majors as a backup catcher,, but at this point, that's still a steal
• Tarik Skubal- Hes hurt, but he might be a stud in a couple years
• Chase Pinder- Every time I saw Clemson on TV, this guy did something great. I don't know if he's a corner OF, or CF, but he's a gamer.
• Andrew Beckwith- Carried his team to a College WS a year ago. Never got right.
• Mason Hickman- Here's my other HS guy. I don't imagine he signs, but he and Holmes would be a coup.

The draft starts, and a couple HS kids go off the board. I'm going to keep the surprises going, and take Hiura. with pick 3. McKay comes off the board one pick later, and White at 17. At this point, I'm holding my breath that Holmes is there when I get to pick again. Oh yeah, I miss on high upside OF a lot, and somehow refuse to learn my lesson there.

Tanner Houck and Seth Romero come off the board back to back, and I like both picks. Houck very nearly made my big board, and Romero probably would have been on there, especially in the 3rd round for me, due to what seems like a serious case of being a knucklehead.

Pick 39 comes along, and I'm taking Holmes.

Pick 69 comes along, and I'm taking Thompson

Pick 78 comes, and I'm taking Allen

Pick 108 comes, and I'm taking Karinchak

Pick 138 comes along, and I'm grabbing Yurchak.

Banuelos comes off the board at 153, which is a little sad, but I'me basically smitten at this point.

• Pick 3- Keston Hiura (picked 9th in real life, Milwaukee)
• Pick 39- Quentin Holmes (Picked 64 in real life, Cleveland)
• Pick 69- Keegan Thompson (picked 105 in real life, ChC)
• Pick 78- Nick Allen (picked 81 in real life, Oak)
• Pick 108- James Karinchak (Picked 282 in real life, Cleveland)
• Pick 138- Justin Yurchak (picked 357 in real life, ChW)
• Pick 168- Tarik Skubal (Picked 862 in real life, Ari)
• Pick 198- Chase Pinder (went 214 in real life)
• Pick 228- Andrew Beckwith (went 960 in real life, KC)
• Pick 258- Mason Hickman (undrafted in real life)

I don't think some of these guys will sign, but I have to say, this is just about my perfect draft.

A belated Draft Diary

Coming into the second day of the draft, my big board looked like this:

• Belge
• Thompson
• Taylor
• Hampson (goes slightly before I would have taken him)
• Calica
• Schmidt
• York
• Moseley
• Jordan (goes in the 8th round to the Orioles)
• Hammond

That all ends up going as follows:

• Round 3, Pick 85- Jeff Belge (in real life he goes WAY later...the 32nd round... I'll end up with an extra pick next year, since Belge didn't sign)
• Round 4, Pick 114- Keegan Thompson (In real life he went in the 33rd, and he didn't sign... I'm sad he doesn't sign)
• Round 5, Pick 144- Kobie Taylor (In real life, he went in the 15th round, but signed for far more than the $100K slot... taking a $359K bonus. I'm thrilled to land him for that cost.
• Round 6, Pick 174- Andrew Calica (he went in the 11th in real life, and signed for $100k).
• Round 7, Pick 204- Clate Schmidt (he went in the 20th, and BA says he signed)
• Round 8, Pick 234- Trey York (he goes in the 9th in real life, signing for $25k... I'm thrilled to add him)
• Roung 9, Pick 264- Mitchell Jordan (he went to the A's in real life, 28 picks later, signing for $200k).
• Round 10, Pick 294- Cooper Hammond- Went undrafted.

If I had it to do again, I'd move Logan Gray down a bit, so that I can snag Hampson. I'd move Moseley up a bit so that he ends up on my roster as well.

Dollar wise, I end up far under the bonus allotment, which actually makes me a little sad. I should have done a better job in making sure there was an injury risk or HS player I was really interested in.

Padres Shadow Draft for Day 2

Recapping day 1, I've added a pair of college pitchers, and a trio of hitters. Hudson, Kay, Okey, Dawson and Gray feels like a strong haul for the first day. Based on what's left form my big board, I'm going to shift some guys around, trying to add some upside. Going into today, my big board now reads:

• Belge
• Thompson
• Taylor
• Hampson
• Calica
• Schmidt
• York
• Moseley
• Jordan
• Hammond

If I land two of the top 3 here (Belge, Thompson, Taylor), I'm going to move Schmidt of York up to and a senior sign and open up some funds.

Enjoy the draft!

Padres Shadow Draft Day 1

Day one is in the books, and man, it was an odd one. Here is how things go for me:

• Ray- Goes 5th to the Brewers.... there was a brief moment where I was hoping he'd make it to me.
• Senzel- 2nd pick in the draft. The Reds have something in mind, and I like what they're doing with this pick.
• Hudson- With the 8th pick in the draft, Hudson is there, and I'm taking him. The Padres IRL are trying to be clever with the Quantril pick, so it will be fun to compare these two careers. Also, IRL, Hudson couldn't have landed in a better spot. Upon seeing the Cardinals stop his free fall, the only reaction is "yup, that makes sense."
• Pint- Went 4th to the Rockies. I can't imagine that's going to help his career.
• Dunn-The Mets grab him at 19. I was REALLY hoping he'd slide to the 24th pick.
• Anderson- The 3rd pick? Anyone who listed to Jonah Keri's podcast with John Copolella knew something crazy was goig to happen at the 3rd pick. This was that surprise.
• Perez- Remember that note about Hudson and "of course they did"... same thing here.
• OkeyI'm excited to land Okey with the 24th pick. He's going to be a stud. IRL, he goes at the top of the 2nd round to the Reds, so this isn't too much of a reach.
• KayLoving this pick for me too. IRL, Kay goes a few picks later (to the Mets, whose big board seems to look a lot like moie)
• Dawson- IRL, he goes 61 to the Dodger, so I grabbed him a few picks early.
• Gray- At 71, I'm picking up Logan Gray.
• Jefferies- Goes to the As befoe I have a chance to draft him
• Hampson
• Belge
• Moseley
• Taylor
• Calica
• Thompson
• Schmidt
• York
• Jordan
• Hammond

MLB Draft Day Big Board

It's draft day!!!!... which means it's time to roll out my full blown big board. Part 1 of the preview can be found here. Part 2 here, and part 3 here.

This post is a compilation and update to those posts, and will also add some comparisons of where my rankings are vs where the industry is. I'm going to keep the majority of post 3 on the side this year, with the idea that different players I referenced in the 3rd post might become more valuable depending on how things go. For example, if Delvin Perez falls to me, I'll plan to bump someone like Clate Schmidt up a bunch of my board (senior sign + later-than-expected HS'er should leave me room to sign everyone.

One more thing... D1 posted its top 150 prospects draft prospects (I left their rankings out since they're subscriber only), whereas BA did 500, and so did PG. If you're reading this blog, you either have WAY too much time on your hands, or you're someone who should try to support those sites. They're incredible.

Without further ado:

Player	School	Level	Notes	BA Rank	PG Rank
Corey Ray	Louisville	JR	Ray has been at the top of my board for around 18 months. Nothing hes's done made me change my mind.	7	3
Nick Senzel	Tennessee	JR	Nothing has changed here	6	7
Dakota Hudson	Mississippi State	JR	Nothing has changed here, either	14	15
Riley Pint	St. Thomas Aquinas	HS	The first HS on my board. I can't imagine he is falling to the 8th pick, but stranger things have happened	2	2
Justin Dunn	Boston College	JR	Here is the first diversion for me from my first draft board. Dunn's stock is soaring, in part because of how he's pitched in the post season.	22	33
Ian Anderson	Shenendehowa	HS	If he lasts until my back to back picks, this would be a steal	12	9
Delvin Perez	International Baseball Academy,PR	HS	Getting popped for PED's has me worried, but with 3 pick in the first round, I'd roll the dice	9	9
Chris Okey	Clemson	JR	nothing changed here	52	47
Anthony Kay	Connecticut	JR	nothing changed here	35	43
Ronnie Dawson	Ohio State	JR	He's had some serious helium, so I'm moving him up to make sure I'm in striking distance when the 3rd round comes around (maybe even the 2nd round)	53	143
Logan Gray	Austin Peay	JR	I don't understand how this guy is ranked so low. I can't get the Ryan Braun comp out of my head	169	140
Daulton Jefferies	Cal	JR	A missed season hurts, but it could also mean more bullets in the gun	61	45
Garrett Hampson	Long Beach State	JR	I've flip flopped on whether Hampson or Solak fits into my draft board, and on decision day, I can't get away from the idea that Hampson has a higher upside (and a lower floor). I think I'm putting Hampson here so that all of the pitching staffs on his teams get to play with a quality SS (probably a philosophical thought for another day)	156	201
Jeff Belge	Henniger	HS	He slots in nicely here, and with the actual draft, might slide up depending on how things are going	68	168
Ryan Moseley	Texas Tech	JR	nothing changed here	NA	NA
Kobie Taylor	Portsmouth	HS	He might move up in the actual draft	259	351
Andrew Calica	UC Santa Barbara	JR	nothing changed here	235	251
Keegan Thompson	Auburn	JR	I'm moving him up a bit, because I think he's going to be a tremendous value	232	392
Clate Schmidt	Clemson	SR	nothing changed here	493	NA
Trey York	Eastern Tennessee	SR	nothing changed here	NA	NA
Mitchell Jordan	Stetson	JR	nothing changed here	418	NA
Cooper Hammond	Miami	JR	nothing changed here	NA	NA

There it is

Happy Draft Day!

Ten more players on my big board

In some years, I've ended up with a surplus of guys on my big board, and in some, I've run out of players within the first 3 rounds.

I think my first couple posts, which identify a dozen college players, and five high school players, should give me a good start. But in case I end up with a situation where I need to draft more players, here's a set of ten more players I'm thinking about.

This list isn't in any sort of order (that might come with a final, inclusive big board post... though I might need to highlight where specific players fall into the mix if that's the case... Or I might leave it as is, to create some flexibility). Here is my college list of additional prospects:

• Garret Hampson- Hampson and Okey were two of my favorite players from the 2013 draft, and he barely missed my top 12 (in fact, it was a toss up between Hampson and Solak... the latter making it because of a stronger bat... though as we get closer... these two might swap spots).
• Mike Shawaryn- This guy was a work horse for a bunch of years in college, and in his draft year, he seems to have run out of steam. Whether it is because of an injury (which seems likely) or fatigue, I'd be thrilled to land this guy, tell him to go home and rest up for spring training (no touching a baseball), and seeing what I have next year.
• Keegan Thompson- Keegan Thompson is a SP at Auburn, who just missed a season with Tommy John surgery. He was also the ace of the 2012 Team USA under 18 team that brought home the gold medal (against Cuba, in the gold medal game, all he did was throw a complete game shut out with 12 Ks, seriously). It seems there should be a very real chance he goes back to college for his senior year, but maybe he can be talked into joining the pros. If so, I want it to be in my system.
• Zack Brown- Here is a guy whose sinker has been compared to a bowling ball. He's been up and down as a college player, but he's a terrific pitcher and workhorse.
• Clate Schmidt- Schmidt had been largely pedestrian this year, but his scouting report shows a guy who's won some big games, basically, by out-competing everyone he faces and pitching off a killer changeup. Here's the thing... coming out of HS, his scouting report was a guy with terrific stuff. He was diagnosed with cancer (the Red Sox did something really cool, drafting Schmidt and letting him talk to Jon Lester). Another year cancer free (which is awesome) and another year Chemo-Free (again, bigger than the game here, but an amazing story), I'm betting more of his strength comes back. Yes, he's a senior sign, but more importantly, he'l pitch in the majors, and be an amazing story.
• Andrew Calica- He's an OBP machine who switch hits and plays strong CF defense. Sign me up.
• Trey York- This senior sign from Eastern Tennessee is a 2b who has the following credits under his belt from this past year: More XBH than K's, a nearly equal K:BB ratio, double digit HR and SB, a 70% SB success rate. Sign me up, please.
• Brian Dalbec- There is no way this guy makes it to me, but every time I hear his game and think about his game, I keep coming back to one name: Micah Owings
• Mitchall Jordan- I don't know what to make of this guy. On the Cape... he was Greg Maddux. Seriously... just... just... just... ok. I don't know what changed, but I'm hoping my scouts and coaches do, since Jordan proved capable of dominating against guys his age.

Let me also tack on a couple more HS players.

• Dylan Carson- Carson is a Cal State Fullerton commit. The switch hitting 1b has been comp'd to a very young Mark Teixeira, who was a terrific player for a long time (and still is). Snagging Carson would be a nice later round pick up.
• Kobie Taylor- As far as HS players go, "Northeast athlete that's been recruited to Vanderbilt" falls very, VERY high on my list of types. Isan Diaz, Rhett Wiseman, and now Kobie Taylor. There's a good chance this is the guy I try to put on my roster, and then spend every dollar I've got from under slot deals on.

With a week left before the draft, my next couple posts will focus on putting some order into a big board, and then doing some comparisons on how players line up across the land (using public sources as a baseline). As with last year, I'm also planning to do a shadow draft.