I like Chase Headley, quite a bit (in fact, I've got him signed for 3 more years on my fantasy team).
But this signing, along with the Red Sox addition of Kung Fu Panda got me thinking... which 3b this off season will bring the most bang for the buck?
So, I present, a tale of 3b's.
- 3b number 1- He's 30 years old, and his last 3 seasons of WAR are 7.2, 3.6 and 4.4. Steamer predicts a 3.5 WAR season in 2015, while a 3,2,1 regression aims higher, at 4.6 (amazing seasons tend to do skew the numbers a bit).
- 3b number 2- He's also 30 years old, and his 3 last seasons of WAR are 2.5, 3.5 and 1.8. Steamer pegs him for 2.1 in 2015, while the same regression from before puts him at 2.4
- 3b number 3- He's younger, at 28, and his last 3 years of WAR are 2.6, 2.3 and 3.0. Steamer has him at 3.6 this year, but the afore mentioned regression says otherwise, pegging him at 2.7.
Player 1 is obviously Headley (that 7.2 WAR year is insane, and shows that the guy has talent), who signed for 4 years and $52 million.
Player 3 is Sandoval, who signed for 5 years and $95 million.
Player 2 signed for 3 years, and $23 million. He's a SS in name, but said he would consider switching to 2b or 3b (he's played those positioned in the past, and his time at 3b hasn't been embarrassing). He's Jed Lowrie.
I said it on Twitter yesterday:
I like the Jed Lowrie deal for the #Astros. Seat warmer at SS until Correa is ready, and then becomes the team's 3b for a few years.
— Mike Bush (@mikebush) December 15, 2014Source: FanGraphs -- Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval
Tough to argue if only because the $$ signs floating around Panda Bear and Headley are insane. But it does appear that Lowrie has been much less consistent than the other two, which is saying something when the other two are Sandoval and Headley. Though maybe Lowrie is gaining more consistency as he ages. All that said, I think the point is that the three teams involved are playing different games, almost different sports. The Yankees and Red Sox play in their own sandbox, seemingly reacting only to the other and ignoring other teams that move past them, yet strive for winning every (well most every) year. While the Astros know they are not playing to win in 2015 and maybe not 2016 and are waiting for guys like Correa, Springer and a few others (though I hope they're not banking on Appel anymore) to blossom so they can compete in the small window of time that they hold those players rights.
ReplyDeleteBaseball teams do not operate in a rational system of assigning value to players so there is really no way rational stats can be applied to say which signing was better.
Nice blog Mike! I'm following it.
I'm not sure I agree entirely with you there RP. If you look at what the Sox did with Lester, they set a value, and stuck to their guns.
ReplyDeleteOf course, there is no award for "most efficient dollar allocation," so you're right in that yeah, these two teams seem willing to pay (or better said, establish) market value.
Thanks for the follow!