Shadow Padres Draft Philosphy

I mentioned previously that I am not doing the Matt Kemp deal. I'm also going to pass on the Justin Upton (makes more than $10 million coming from outside the organization) and I'm going to pass on the WIl Myers deal (the reasoning for this is in an upcoming post... but suffice to say, there is one player in that deal I don't want to give up).

Forgive me the sports crossover here, but Jimmy Johnson (the football coach), had a draft philosophy that was along the lines of "make a list of all the available players you'd want on your roster, and go from there." In my case, that means making the list, and first breaking it into tiers.

• Tier 1- if these guys fall to me, I'm a happy camper. Generally speaking, this tier is around 4-6 players, is likely a mix of the cream of the crop, and guys with a chance to fall some a specific reason (perhaps a hamate injury sapped a player's power and dropped his stock a bit?).
• Tier 2- If we assume the draft goes according to plan, this is the list of guys I am hoping to pull at least one player from, and possibly 2 players depending on where I am drafting and how many early picks I have.
• Tier 3- I try to find one or 2 college players that I think will make it to the show. Generally speaking, if a pitcher is described as having "upside of a work horse SP," or an OF is described as a "tweener with a high OBP," I'm pouncing
• Tier 4- The Lotto ticket. While I acknowledge that there are high school players with exceptional baseball tools, and it's easy to dream on their upside, I'd prefer to wait a little while into the draft before making a move. Guys in BaseballAmerica's top 250 can be found after the 3rd or 4th round, generally with signability concerns.
• Tier 5- College Seniors and Relievers- It rarely makes sense to draft a reliever in the first two or three rounds (there are exceptions), but in a world where Craig Breslow gets $2 million, and Wesley Wright gets something similar, developing bull pen arms, and saving a couple million here and there, is worth the draft pick. Also, in order to sign Tier 4 players, you need to find a couple of college seniors in the first 10 rounds of every draft.
• Tier 6- The 11th round pick. This is a guy you don't think will sign, but you're going to give it your all. He is a fall back to a tier 4 player not falling.
• Tier 7- Binkies- Everyone has them. It could be a guy who throws 100 MPH but has no idea where it is going. Maybe it is a guy who happens to share your alma mater. Heck, maybe it us a guy with a crazy name that you can imagine various announcers tripping over. Generally speaking, I'm hoping to find my binky in the 12th round.

After I've got my list of players broken in Tiers (especially tier 1 and 2), I start to put an order on the list.

In tier 1 and 2, I'm generally looking to land college players who I think will contribute in some way (remember, drafted player contribute both by making it to the majors, an by playing well enough in the minors to be used as trade fodder). However, as I said, I recognize that there are HS players with unique enough skills that they belong in the upper tiers.

If I come out of a draft feeling like I've added between 4 and 7 potential contributors, a lotto ticket and a binky, I've done really well.

Identifying which player belongs in which tier is part art, part science. Of course, stats play an important part of the equation (especially college stats), and I personally put a higher weight on stats against top competition (for example, Team USA and the Cape Cod League are two places where a prospect can make major moves in my draft board).

In addition, there are specific college programs that I think do a really great job developing certain types of players.

My next posts will be a review of my tiers for the 2014 draft (hint: Trea Turner was high up in my top tier), with examples of what makes a prospect someone I'm intrigued with.