Gordon Hayward Opted Out- Now What?

Celtics Blog has a tremendous primer on where the Celtics can go from here, while The Ringer makes a perfect case for Miles Turner being a target.

Assuming the Hayward Homecoming Hype is real, I'm now fully on board with this as a 1:1 deal. According to the Trade NBA machine, Gordon Hayward at $80 million over 4 years works perfect as a trade for Turner.

From there, I'm offering Shaq Harrison the full TPE ($9.0 million per year), and revisiting the idea of Ben Mclemore, this time with Robert WIlliams at the trade bait (Houston says they want a center).

If there's a way to get Jeff Green on the veteran's minimum, or Bi-Annual, I do that too. I'd also consider asking Wannamaker back for the minimum

• Guards- Kemba, Smart, Mclemore, Wannamaker, Pritchard
• Wings- Tatum, Brown, Harrison, Nesmith, Langford
• Bigs- Tyler, Theiss, G. Williams, Jeff Green, Fall

Let the season begin.

Three teams who crushed the NBA Draft

It's easy to look at my first big board and have a pretty good idea of who I think did well in the draft.

It feels unnatural to say, but the Knicks getting Toppin and Quickley is a good haul, and those are two guys who make that team better immediately (Everyone compares Toppin to Amare Stoudamire, but don't forget, some of Amare's best work came with Tyson Chandler as his rim protector. Toppin and Mitchell Robinson have that vibe for me, while RJ Barrett's a good piece, and Quickley should become the teams microwave scorer off the bench. Add a couple guards here, look to maintain room for a max FA next year, and the Knicks are heading in the right direction (yep, either hell froze over or they'll find some way to screw this up). I'd be even more impressed had they kept the rights to Bolmaro.

The Mavericks also had a day, adding Josh Green (jury's out), but also Tyrell Terry and Tyler Bey. Luka's getting new toys to play with, and I can't wait to see how Rick Carlysle, who's an offensive genius, deploys his new toys. I didn't love the deal to move Seth Curry, but it seems like the Mavs might be able to replace his prodicts pretty easily.

The Grizzlies added a sniper and a glue guy, both of whom are regularly classified among the toughest players in the class. I think, as a Celtics fan, I'd trade our 3 picks for the two guys the Grizz picked up, since Smart and Bane would look great together... and now Celtics fans everywhere can ask "why can't we get guys like that?" every time Bane hits a 3 coming off a perfect Tillman pick. Homerism aside, I love their haul.

Finally, honorable mention to the Kings, who got Haliburton (and drafted two guys I liked in Tillman and Martin Jr, but traded both) and Sixers who added some shooters along with a bruiser in Paul Reed, while completely revamping the roster with Dany Green and Seth Curry (and got out from Al Hordord's contract). Daryl Morey wasted no time, and the top teams in the east are going to be great this year.

Recapping the Celtics draft night (and predicting next steps)

Draft night came and went for the Celtics, who went in a different direction than I would have, but hey, when you've won championships and continually built a team that's competing like Danny Ainge has, you get the benefit of the doubt over an internet nobody.

Though I would have preferred a small trade up to secure Halliburton, using the 14th pick on Precious (then snagging Terry or Bane with 26 before dealing the 30th pick), the Celtics added a sniper and a backup PG, both of whom Danny seems to like (though he likes all his players, is my guess).

The next big issue ig Gordon Hayward's contract, which will be coming to a head in a few short hours. If there's a sign and trade to be made, even if it's just for the Trade Exception, it should be done (assuming Gordon wants out). If it's a deal for Myles Turner or Andre Dummond, the Celtics should do it.

If Gordon does leave, Shaq Harrison is my first, second, third and fifth phone call. He's look great in green, and since Bomlero is going to Minnesota, Harrison is the one guy who's available that fits into the Gordon Hayward/Evan Turner role seamlessly, both this year and for the next few.

The Rockets are seemingly wheeling and dealing... I'd connect with them right now to see if a Semi Ojeleye for Ben Mcloemore deal is of interest. Semi replaces some of that they lost in the Covington/Ariza deals for cheap, while mclemore fits like a glove for the Celtics (I'd also ask about trying a S&T for Jeff Green in the process).

Right now, the Celtics have a lot of young guys with potential, but could use another veteran or two on the bench. The Gordon Hayward conclusion will make it more obvious if it is 1 or 2 players they need, and theoretically, we should know what's happening by the end of the day.

NBA Draft Big Board

Though this draft has been called every name in the book, I think there are going to be some good players that come out of it.

For the Celtics, there are about 6 guys I really like:

• Precious Achiuwa- DPOY potential
• Tyrese Haliburton- I love the Jrue Holiday rumors... Holiday and Smart would be AMAZING together... Halliburton has that type of upside for me.
• Tyrell Terry- Best shooter in the draft? Yes please.
• Leondro Balmero- Brad Stevens gets a ton of mileage with this type of player. See Turner, Evan and Hayward, Gordon
• Tyler Bey- I don't know what to make of him. He's freakishly athletic, and hit 3's at a great clip (albeit in a small sample).
• Paul Reed- He's the non-stop motor type bruiser of choice for me.

Seeing any of those guys end up with the green will make me a very happy camper.

After them, however, there are a few other players I wouldn't be opposed to.

• Desmond Bane (similar enough to Smart but with better shooting?), Isiah Joe or Immanuel Quickley (the Ben Gordon comp is sticking with me)- The Celtics need an extra shooter or two, and one of these guys will end up being a very good one.
• Xavier Tillman- He feels like a Dan Theiss starter kit.
• Kenyon Martin Jr- Would be a final flyer, but there's potential for him to become a defensive monster if we miss on Achiuwa and Bey.

The draft can't come soon enough.

Three players the Celtics should consider for the veteran's minimum

I've found John Hollinger's series on The Athletic, which details his new projection system and offers insights into how much a free agent should, based on Hollinger's system, be paid next year. While some of John's conclusions caught me off guard (Jerami Grant as the biggest likely over-pay... the Syracuse homer in me was not impressed, John!), the series did make me recognize a few guys that could, theoretically be had for the veteran's minimum. If I were the Celtics, I'd be targeting the following role players for depth:

• Noah Vonleh- Assuming the Celtics can cleaer out some of the log jam in the front court (Enes Kanter, Vincent Poirier), Vonleh's an interesting 5th big man. He's been good at one thing or another (rarely more than one thing at a time), and he seems like someone who might be OK in Brad Steven's system.
• Glenn Robinson III- He's 6'7 and can shoot from 3... would a coach like Brad Stevens be able to turn him loose? If Gordon Hayward opts out (definitely possible), maybe this is a way they replace some of the offense they'd be losing.
• Jaylen Adams- He's not a big guy, at 6'2, but he could be a decent enough combo guard off the bench. He shot nearly 40% from 3 point land in college, and maybe ther'es soemthing here. For the Celtics, finding a 4th guard (behind Walker, Smart and Brown) feels like an important thing (Wanamaker is a good player, but I'd prefer someone with a little more upside. Maybe that's Jaylen Adams.

Regarding two players I'm quite smitten with, Jeff Green came in as a suggested $3.2 million price, which seems logical (and I stand by my assertion that I'd give Green the full MLE if Hayward opts in). Shaq Harrison, my Hayward replacement if it comes to it, checks in at more than $8 million, though Hollinger labels it something that will surprise people. Jared Weiss wrote a piece discussing Harrison, as well. In the event of a Hayward departure, Harrison gets the first offer of my full MLE... and I hope like heck that he takes it.

The very real Gordon Hayward Opt Out Conundrum

I wrote a bunch of offseaosn blogs, without ever really considering that Gordon could, in fact, opt out of his deal and leave the Celtics over the cap, and with nothing to show for a tremendous player's departure.

So, it only seems logical to address this possibility, because it probably means running it back with Smart, Walker, Tatum, Brown and Theis as starters, Grant and Robert Williams as depth bigs... and realistically, not more much.

If Gordon leaves, it opens up a higher MLE for the Celtics, though I'm not sure it changes all that much from my previous post (other than not trading for Andre Drummond).

Shaq Harrison remains my top target, and maybe there's a way to split the MLE to get ahold of Jeff Green too?

The Semi & Romeo/Ben Mclemore deal also seems too good to be true (meaning the Rockets probably decline), but still seems to make sense in my mind.

• Guards- Walker, Smart, Mclemore, Harrison (depending on matchups), Draft pick (Joe/Quickley)
• Wings- Brown, Tatum, Harrison, Bolmero (maybe? Depends on how long Harrison is signed for*)
• Bigs- Theis, Grant Williams, Robert Williams, Jeff Green, draft project (Precious/Tyler Bey/KJ Martin or Paul Reed)

It's less top heavy, but more balanced. This group might not have as strong a 6th man (Hayward leaving means Smart starts), but it feels deeper and more versatile than last year's roster. Somehow, I'm pretty OK with this group. It's sort of a clear pecking order, there's room for growth, and there's a lot of different styles this team can play.

Harrison is a swiss army knife that Brad Stevens will use all over the court, the center spot is 3 deep (and hella versatile), Green and Mclemore add some veteran support.

I can get behind this roster.

*If we were to sign Harrison for more than a year, I would drop Bolmero further down my big board, instead looking at Tyler Bey at the end of the first round, and grabbing him at 26 if possible.

Are the Rockets and Celtics are perfect trade partners

I had one of those "why didn't this come to me sooner?" moments today when thinking about Daryl Morey and what his new role wth Philadelphia means. On one hand, the team just got a lot stronger. On the other, Morey came from a role in Boston... it's not crazy he and Danny Ainge would have similar taste in players.

In other words, did the Rockets just hand the keys to a roster full of players who fit what the Celtics want to do to someone who, maybe wants to make his own mark on the Houston franchise? And if so... just how many matches can we come up with?

In an eaelier post, I references the idea of Ben Mclemore for some combination fo Semi Ojeleye/Carsen Edwards/Romeo Langford/ late first round pick. Maybe I was aiming a little lower than I should have been.

What are the chances that the Rockets are looking at something bigger:

If the Rockets decide to roll with a real center, does Robert Williams get a deal done for PJ Tucker, who can play with Theis or Grent Williams, as well as handling time at the 5 with two wings and two guards as part of a true 5 out offense, and Ben Mclemore, whose scoring punch would be a welcome addition?

For the Rockets, they can run it back, for the most part, albeit with a more athletic center (or you know... an actual center), along with some youth in Langford, and a PJ Tucker starter kit in Semi.

It's not my ideal swap, but it's not bad.

Of course, then there's also the blockbuster.

Houston pairs Russ with a pair of all star level players, while also getting 3 young pieces. Boston adds Harden... and becomes basically unstoppable. Yeah... that's not going to happen.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 9- The Offseason

For someone who really isn't an NBA guy, this has turned into a pretty long series of posts. It began outling my Core-4 theory, which is simply that Smart, Brown Tatum and Grant Williams form an ideal complement to each other, and can be a death lineup over the next 5 years that contiues to add wrinkes and wreak havoc. Of course, basketball is played 5-on-5, so it's important to identify the missing pieces to support the Core-4.

• A sniper (who can ideally play both ways)
• A point-forward (that can take sompressure off the guards, and serve as a zone breaker).
• A center (that can defend the rim, set screens, and handle some dirty work).
• A stretch-4 (that fits into the mold of Tayshaun Prince or Jamario Moon).

Along the way, there was a bad idea, which was followed by some deeper thoughts and a draft overview.

TL;DR- a random dude on the interwebs wrote WAY too many words... and as it turns out... still had many more to write.

That brings me here... a post to outline my approach to the Celtics offseason.

Gordon Hayward is the biggest question. Will he opt-in? Does he want to play somewhere else? Celtics Blog offered a deep primer on the decision. If I were Brad Stevens or Danny Ainge, I'd ask him what he wants, and assuming it isn't "a date with the Hawks, peace-out dude"... I'd try to accomodate. There's value in being an executive who does right by your players.

For this reason, there won't be any discussion of a Kemba Walker deal here either. Kemba says he wants to learn to win, and I'm willing to let Brad Stevens teah him.

If Gordon wants to stay, I'm excited about it. My top 6 from a team that had a very realistic shot at the finals are all coming back. A little more depth (and some injury luck), and this was a championship team.

Let's assume Gordon opts in, and wants to come back, which to be frank, is the option I'm sort of hoping for. At that point, I am going to try to thread the needle, adding a couple veterans who can help the roster today. and using the draft to find a few projects that, in a couple years, could be the ideal supporting cast around Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams.

In an ideal world, I'd find a way to sign both Jeff Green and Langston Galloway. They'd slot in as backups, combining with Smart and the Williamses to give me a lengthy, strong 2-way second unit (I'm assuming that Hayward and Kemba would play a bunch together with some the second unit to keep the ball moving, meaning Smart and Grant play a lot with the Jays).

In fairness, I don't think this is an option, using only the MLE and a veteran's mimumum offer, so I'd focus on Green, and then look at some combination of the 14th pick, Semi Ojeleye and Romeo Langford (along with Poirier, if needed, for salary-mathcing purposes) as a trade package for a guard who can hit from deep (Ben Mclemore comes to mind; more in a minute).

The 14th pick is a super interesting asset to me, becasue if I can't do a deal for a sniper, I might just try to move up and ensure I get one of Precious Achiuwa (top target) or Tyrese Haliburton. Both would help the Celtics in the short and long term. Both have super high upsides.

This is the whole "thread the needle" point. Using the pick (or even dealing up) on Achiuwa likely limits my ability to deal for a guard. In trades, Mclemore is a target for me. The Rockets seems like a natural target. They have a new GM, we have a few pieces that could be interesting, including Semi, who fits into the mold of undersized, strong guy who hits occasional 3s (PJ Tucker part 2?). Does Semi + Langford for Mclemore get a deal through, allowing me to focus on Precious (and Bolmero) in the draft?

Actually, yes, it does:

In the draft, Precious is obviously the top target with (an upgrade on) the 14th pick. If I need the pick to deal for a sniper, I'm taking a few projects with the leftover picks, ideally ending up with a combination of Bolmero (draft and stash), Isiah Joe/Emmanuel Quickley and Kenyon Martin Jr.

The roster now looks like this:

• Guards- Walker, Smart, Mclemore, Quickley/Joe (development project)
• Wings-Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Bolmero (Stash)
• Bigs- Theis, Grant Williams, Jeff Green, Robert Williams, Precious or KJ Martin (development project)

The development projects listed there join Taco Fall and Tremont Waters in the G-league.

FWIW: this actually might be my perfect offseason. It's quaint, but it improves the Celtics' depth immensely, while also keeping an eye focused on a supporting cast for the prime years of my Core 4.

****Moving on to Hayward wanting to go to Indiana.

If Gordon wants to go to Indiana.. I'm going to accomodate it, and my suggested approach would be as follows:

Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Drummond start games for me, and can be one version of a 4-out offense. Jeremy Lamb is my new 6th man. Drummond plays a lot with our second string, because having a big down low to truly bully second units for other teams mitigates some of the depth issues... and because Dan Theis has proven himself capable of being a key cog with the other 4 starters.

I'd immediately throw my full MLE at Shaq Harrison, because he fits the Point-Forward role, can be a backup to at least 3 spots (PG, SG and SF), and he's a tremendous defender.

Ironically, the drum I've been beating this whole series about a stretch 4 is going to go unanswered, barring Jeff Green accepting the veteran's minimum (seems unlikely). As such, in this version of reality, I'm probably going to keep Semi Ojeleye, who can, at the very least, get in the way of guys like Giannis and Lebron.

Depth chart is:

• PG- Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart (starter)
• SG- Marcus Smart, Jeremy Lamb, Jaylen Brown (depending on matchups)
• SF-Jaylen Brown, Shaq Harrison, Jason Tatum (again, matchups), Semi Ojeleye
• PF- Jason Tatum, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye
• C- Drummond, Theis, Robert Williams

It makes me sad to give up my Jeff Green pipe-dream here, but Harrison is too valuable a contributor in this version of the Celtics to forego.

My draft approach here actually doesn't change from the previous version. Precious is the target at 14 (and I'm willing to deal up to get him). Bolmero and Quickley/Joe are who I'm hoping for at 26 and 30.

***The curious case of Robert Williams

The depth charts above leave open an interesting issue: Daniel Theis will be a free agenct after this season, and as the team is constructed, Robert Williams is his heir apparent. The challenge, however, is that Theis is more of a dirty-work glue-guy (which seems to be something Brad Stevens likes in his centers), and Williams has a much different skill set.

This makes me debate William's role, in the short and long term. A trio of the Williamses and Precious seems like it would be super athletic and could give other teams fits moving forward... but it lacks a certain toughness. I keep coming back to Paul Reed as another draft project to target, not at the expense of the guys I've already mentioned, but as a Theis replacement in a year (or maybe a little further out). I love the idea of using Grant as a smallball 5, but Steve Kerr showed with Draymond (and Spolstra with Bam this year) that you can't have the small ball 5 take abuse in the post for 30 minutes per game in the regular season. This means the Celtics will need to have a backup C, who theoretically plays 15-20 minutes per game in the regular season (Grant plays a lot of 4, and slides down to the 5 to close out most games... at least until the playoffs roll around). Maybe there's a way to buy an extra early second round pick to get ahold of Reed and have extra options moving forwrd. This would give us another year to really identify what we have with Timelord, see how it fits into what we want to do, and then make a more educated decision on who will be the defensive anchor for the next few years of the Core 4.

This also makes me want to see what teams might be willing to offer for Robert Williams, beauty being in the eye of the beholder and all. Is there a team drafting in the top 10 or so that might be willing to part with a pick for Williams and the 30th pick? If so, does it make a Halliburton/Precious draft a possibility?

Tangentially related, Paul Reed is particularly interesting if Gordon Hayward opts in; at that point, we're not going to improve the 5 all that much, unless we're using the MLE on Harry Giles (I get the allure, but think Green is a better target for the roster as currently built). Reed, Grant Williams and Precious could be a really interesting trio of bigs in a couple years, and it wouldn't be awful for Reed to be understudy to Theis, Precious to be understudy to Green, and Grant to bounce back and forth between thr 4 and the 5.

Assuming Gordon stays, I'd like to see the Celtics pick up a veteran 3rd guard (along with someone to groom as his replacement) and a veteran stretch 4 (again, along with someone to groom into his replacement). I'd also love to see them get ahold of Bolmero, as a Hayward replacement possibility in a year.