Wednesday, July 7, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Big Board

This year is a weird one, for any number of reasons (pandemic, different information than is typical based on timeframes, deeper draft, etc).

I find that there's a pretty clear top 4 for me, and it doesn't include a HS short stop:

  • Sal Frelick- This guy seems like a Johny Damon clone. He's a quality hitter, has good speed, and plays a quality CF.
  • Jack Leiter-The strongest pitcher in this draft, in terms of highest floor (with a high ceiling).
  • Kumar Rocker- The highest upside of any pitcher in this draft. I think he has a higher upside than Leiter, but I also think he's got a lower floor.
  • Matt McLain- He's easily an up the middle player (SS possibly, but CF or 2b as a fall back).

From there, I swerve a bit into the high school hitter pool, with:

  • Jordan Lawler- He's been falling on draft boards and predictions, and is no longer seen as the top SS in the draft. I actually think this is mainly prospect fatigue more than anything else.
  • Khalil Watson- I love this guy's upside.

I'm picking as the Padres, which means those 6 guys are super likely to be gone, and hey, that's OK (it means the major league team didn't suck this year).

There are 5 college players I'm pretty smitten with, and 4 HSers.

On the college side, I really like:

  • Mike McGreevy- This guy is a pitcher's pitcher, coupling good stuff with tremendous command.
  • Andrew Abbott- I know he's probably going to end up in the bullpen, but boy, he's got great stuff.
  • Cody Morissette- He had a down year (at one point, he was being comp'd to Chase Utley... which... wow!) That said, I see a lot of Joey Wendle in his game.
  • Tyler McDonough- Poor man's Ben Zobrist? I mean, if there is a way to land Morisette and McDonough, it would be a great pair of chess pieces that could both be used all over the diamond.
  • Seth Stevenson-The Temple JC product has top of the scale speed, could stick at SS, and fits into what I'm trying do to here. I find that a mix of line drive hitters and speed demons (little pirahnas) is the way I want to build.

In terms of high schoolers, there are 4 players I'd target:

  • Chase Petty- This guy has a chance to be an ace... even if HS pitchers are risky as can be.
  • Peyton Stovall- I think this guy will be the best hitter to come out of this draft.
  • Josh Baez- Baez is a complete departure from the player type I seem to be most interested in, but he's got super star upside, and fits into the one demographic I can't resist... New England players who are committed to Vanderbilt (see Diaz, Isan)
  • Maddux Bruns- He doesn't always know where it's going, but his stuff is tremendous, and I get a weird "Jon lester" vibe from him.

The rest of the draft has a few guys I like, but the 15 guys above are my top targets.

I'd be happy to add any of the following, in order:

  • Jacob Steinmetz- He's a NY guy originally, who's been successful in Florida. He's rising up boards, but is a guy I'd love to add to my franchise.
  • Jaden Hill-I don't know what to make of his health, but if I'm adding him as a 4th or 5th player in a draft (assuming a couple of my top 15 are already on my roster), I'm loving him as a flyer.
  • Aaron Zavala- He's way too low to actually make it to me, but he's a patient hitter who makes contact (possible 2 hitter?).
  • Kevin Kopps- I don't know if he is a starter, opener, headliner, multi-inning RP who handles the 6th and 7th (or 7th and 8th)... I just know the guy can pitch more than one inning, and will get his opportunitities.
  • Seth Lonsway- The best curve ball in the draft?
  • Tanner Bibee- I'm a sucker for the top players in the Big West... this year, Bibee fits the bill
  • Connor Kokx-The Lpnog Beach State product hits the heck out of the ball, runs well, and has a chance to be a really good sleeper
  • Kevin Abel- He's been injured, and he's more famous due to a tremendous run a couple years ago... but he's a big game pitcher (clutch even?), and this late in my list, he's a nice get.
  • Braiden Ward- He's a burner who can hit a bit, and will definitely play CF as a pro. Sure, he might end up a 5th OF (pinch runner, defensive replacement), but that's OK with me.
Combining everything into one full board:
  • Frelick
  • Leiter
  • Rocker
  • McLain
  • Lawler
  • Watson
  • Stovall- (I'm doing a game theory thing here... I like Petty a little bit better, but I think Petty's more likely to be available with my second pick than Stovall is)
  • McGreevy
  • Abbott
  • Petty
  • Baez
  • Morisette
  • Mcdonough
  • Bruns
  • Stevenson
  • Steinmetz
  • Hill
  • Zavala
  • Kopps
  • Lonsway
  • Bibee
  • Kokx
  • Abel
  • Ward

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