Gordon Hayward Opted Out- Now What?

Celtics Blog has a tremendous primer on where the Celtics can go from here, while The Ringer makes a perfect case for Miles Turner being a target.

Assuming the Hayward Homecoming Hype is real, I'm now fully on board with this as a 1:1 deal. According to the Trade NBA machine, Gordon Hayward at $80 million over 4 years works perfect as a trade for Turner.

From there, I'm offering Shaq Harrison the full TPE ($9.0 million per year), and revisiting the idea of Ben Mclemore, this time with Robert WIlliams at the trade bait (Houston says they want a center).

If there's a way to get Jeff Green on the veteran's minimum, or Bi-Annual, I do that too. I'd also consider asking Wannamaker back for the minimum

• Guards- Kemba, Smart, Mclemore, Wannamaker, Pritchard
• Wings- Tatum, Brown, Harrison, Nesmith, Langford
• Bigs- Tyler, Theiss, G. Williams, Jeff Green, Fall

Let the season begin.

Three teams who crushed the NBA Draft

It's easy to look at my first big board and have a pretty good idea of who I think did well in the draft.

It feels unnatural to say, but the Knicks getting Toppin and Quickley is a good haul, and those are two guys who make that team better immediately (Everyone compares Toppin to Amare Stoudamire, but don't forget, some of Amare's best work came with Tyson Chandler as his rim protector. Toppin and Mitchell Robinson have that vibe for me, while RJ Barrett's a good piece, and Quickley should become the teams microwave scorer off the bench. Add a couple guards here, look to maintain room for a max FA next year, and the Knicks are heading in the right direction (yep, either hell froze over or they'll find some way to screw this up). I'd be even more impressed had they kept the rights to Bolmaro.

The Mavericks also had a day, adding Josh Green (jury's out), but also Tyrell Terry and Tyler Bey. Luka's getting new toys to play with, and I can't wait to see how Rick Carlysle, who's an offensive genius, deploys his new toys. I didn't love the deal to move Seth Curry, but it seems like the Mavs might be able to replace his prodicts pretty easily.

The Grizzlies added a sniper and a glue guy, both of whom are regularly classified among the toughest players in the class. I think, as a Celtics fan, I'd trade our 3 picks for the two guys the Grizz picked up, since Smart and Bane would look great together... and now Celtics fans everywhere can ask "why can't we get guys like that?" every time Bane hits a 3 coming off a perfect Tillman pick. Homerism aside, I love their haul.

Finally, honorable mention to the Kings, who got Haliburton (and drafted two guys I liked in Tillman and Martin Jr, but traded both) and Sixers who added some shooters along with a bruiser in Paul Reed, while completely revamping the roster with Dany Green and Seth Curry (and got out from Al Hordord's contract). Daryl Morey wasted no time, and the top teams in the east are going to be great this year.

Recapping the Celtics draft night (and predicting next steps)

Draft night came and went for the Celtics, who went in a different direction than I would have, but hey, when you've won championships and continually built a team that's competing like Danny Ainge has, you get the benefit of the doubt over an internet nobody.

Though I would have preferred a small trade up to secure Halliburton, using the 14th pick on Precious (then snagging Terry or Bane with 26 before dealing the 30th pick), the Celtics added a sniper and a backup PG, both of whom Danny seems to like (though he likes all his players, is my guess).

The next big issue ig Gordon Hayward's contract, which will be coming to a head in a few short hours. If there's a sign and trade to be made, even if it's just for the Trade Exception, it should be done (assuming Gordon wants out). If it's a deal for Myles Turner or Andre Dummond, the Celtics should do it.

If Gordon does leave, Shaq Harrison is my first, second, third and fifth phone call. He's look great in green, and since Bomlero is going to Minnesota, Harrison is the one guy who's available that fits into the Gordon Hayward/Evan Turner role seamlessly, both this year and for the next few.

The Rockets are seemingly wheeling and dealing... I'd connect with them right now to see if a Semi Ojeleye for Ben Mcloemore deal is of interest. Semi replaces some of that they lost in the Covington/Ariza deals for cheap, while mclemore fits like a glove for the Celtics (I'd also ask about trying a S&T for Jeff Green in the process).

Right now, the Celtics have a lot of young guys with potential, but could use another veteran or two on the bench. The Gordon Hayward conclusion will make it more obvious if it is 1 or 2 players they need, and theoretically, we should know what's happening by the end of the day.

NBA Draft Big Board

Though this draft has been called every name in the book, I think there are going to be some good players that come out of it.

For the Celtics, there are about 6 guys I really like:

• Precious Achiuwa- DPOY potential
• Tyrese Haliburton- I love the Jrue Holiday rumors... Holiday and Smart would be AMAZING together... Halliburton has that type of upside for me.
• Tyrell Terry- Best shooter in the draft? Yes please.
• Leondro Balmero- Brad Stevens gets a ton of mileage with this type of player. See Turner, Evan and Hayward, Gordon
• Tyler Bey- I don't know what to make of him. He's freakishly athletic, and hit 3's at a great clip (albeit in a small sample).
• Paul Reed- He's the non-stop motor type bruiser of choice for me.

Seeing any of those guys end up with the green will make me a very happy camper.

After them, however, there are a few other players I wouldn't be opposed to.

• Desmond Bane (similar enough to Smart but with better shooting?), Isiah Joe or Immanuel Quickley (the Ben Gordon comp is sticking with me)- The Celtics need an extra shooter or two, and one of these guys will end up being a very good one.
• Xavier Tillman- He feels like a Dan Theiss starter kit.
• Kenyon Martin Jr- Would be a final flyer, but there's potential for him to become a defensive monster if we miss on Achiuwa and Bey.

The draft can't come soon enough.

Three players the Celtics should consider for the veteran's minimum

I've found John Hollinger's series on The Athletic, which details his new projection system and offers insights into how much a free agent should, based on Hollinger's system, be paid next year. While some of John's conclusions caught me off guard (Jerami Grant as the biggest likely over-pay... the Syracuse homer in me was not impressed, John!), the series did make me recognize a few guys that could, theoretically be had for the veteran's minimum. If I were the Celtics, I'd be targeting the following role players for depth:

• Noah Vonleh- Assuming the Celtics can cleaer out some of the log jam in the front court (Enes Kanter, Vincent Poirier), Vonleh's an interesting 5th big man. He's been good at one thing or another (rarely more than one thing at a time), and he seems like someone who might be OK in Brad Steven's system.
• Glenn Robinson III- He's 6'7 and can shoot from 3... would a coach like Brad Stevens be able to turn him loose? If Gordon Hayward opts out (definitely possible), maybe this is a way they replace some of the offense they'd be losing.
• Jaylen Adams- He's not a big guy, at 6'2, but he could be a decent enough combo guard off the bench. He shot nearly 40% from 3 point land in college, and maybe ther'es soemthing here. For the Celtics, finding a 4th guard (behind Walker, Smart and Brown) feels like an important thing (Wanamaker is a good player, but I'd prefer someone with a little more upside. Maybe that's Jaylen Adams.

Regarding two players I'm quite smitten with, Jeff Green came in as a suggested $3.2 million price, which seems logical (and I stand by my assertion that I'd give Green the full MLE if Hayward opts in). Shaq Harrison, my Hayward replacement if it comes to it, checks in at more than $8 million, though Hollinger labels it something that will surprise people. Jared Weiss wrote a piece discussing Harrison, as well. In the event of a Hayward departure, Harrison gets the first offer of my full MLE... and I hope like heck that he takes it.

The very real Gordon Hayward Opt Out Conundrum

I wrote a bunch of offseaosn blogs, without ever really considering that Gordon could, in fact, opt out of his deal and leave the Celtics over the cap, and with nothing to show for a tremendous player's departure.

So, it only seems logical to address this possibility, because it probably means running it back with Smart, Walker, Tatum, Brown and Theis as starters, Grant and Robert Williams as depth bigs... and realistically, not more much.

If Gordon leaves, it opens up a higher MLE for the Celtics, though I'm not sure it changes all that much from my previous post (other than not trading for Andre Drummond).

Shaq Harrison remains my top target, and maybe there's a way to split the MLE to get ahold of Jeff Green too?

The Semi & Romeo/Ben Mclemore deal also seems too good to be true (meaning the Rockets probably decline), but still seems to make sense in my mind.

• Guards- Walker, Smart, Mclemore, Harrison (depending on matchups), Draft pick (Joe/Quickley)
• Wings- Brown, Tatum, Harrison, Bolmero (maybe? Depends on how long Harrison is signed for*)
• Bigs- Theis, Grant Williams, Robert Williams, Jeff Green, draft project (Precious/Tyler Bey/KJ Martin or Paul Reed)

It's less top heavy, but more balanced. This group might not have as strong a 6th man (Hayward leaving means Smart starts), but it feels deeper and more versatile than last year's roster. Somehow, I'm pretty OK with this group. It's sort of a clear pecking order, there's room for growth, and there's a lot of different styles this team can play.

Harrison is a swiss army knife that Brad Stevens will use all over the court, the center spot is 3 deep (and hella versatile), Green and Mclemore add some veteran support.

I can get behind this roster.

*If we were to sign Harrison for more than a year, I would drop Bolmero further down my big board, instead looking at Tyler Bey at the end of the first round, and grabbing him at 26 if possible.

Are the Rockets and Celtics are perfect trade partners

I had one of those "why didn't this come to me sooner?" moments today when thinking about Daryl Morey and what his new role wth Philadelphia means. On one hand, the team just got a lot stronger. On the other, Morey came from a role in Boston... it's not crazy he and Danny Ainge would have similar taste in players.

In other words, did the Rockets just hand the keys to a roster full of players who fit what the Celtics want to do to someone who, maybe wants to make his own mark on the Houston franchise? And if so... just how many matches can we come up with?

In an eaelier post, I references the idea of Ben Mclemore for some combination fo Semi Ojeleye/Carsen Edwards/Romeo Langford/ late first round pick. Maybe I was aiming a little lower than I should have been.

What are the chances that the Rockets are looking at something bigger:

If the Rockets decide to roll with a real center, does Robert Williams get a deal done for PJ Tucker, who can play with Theis or Grent Williams, as well as handling time at the 5 with two wings and two guards as part of a true 5 out offense, and Ben Mclemore, whose scoring punch would be a welcome addition?

For the Rockets, they can run it back, for the most part, albeit with a more athletic center (or you know... an actual center), along with some youth in Langford, and a PJ Tucker starter kit in Semi.

It's not my ideal swap, but it's not bad.

Of course, then there's also the blockbuster.

Houston pairs Russ with a pair of all star level players, while also getting 3 young pieces. Boston adds Harden... and becomes basically unstoppable. Yeah... that's not going to happen.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 9- The Offseason

For someone who really isn't an NBA guy, this has turned into a pretty long series of posts. It began outling my Core-4 theory, which is simply that Smart, Brown Tatum and Grant Williams form an ideal complement to each other, and can be a death lineup over the next 5 years that contiues to add wrinkes and wreak havoc. Of course, basketball is played 5-on-5, so it's important to identify the missing pieces to support the Core-4.

• A sniper (who can ideally play both ways)
• A point-forward (that can take sompressure off the guards, and serve as a zone breaker).
• A center (that can defend the rim, set screens, and handle some dirty work).
• A stretch-4 (that fits into the mold of Tayshaun Prince or Jamario Moon).

Along the way, there was a bad idea, which was followed by some deeper thoughts and a draft overview.

TL;DR- a random dude on the interwebs wrote WAY too many words... and as it turns out... still had many more to write.

That brings me here... a post to outline my approach to the Celtics offseason.

Gordon Hayward is the biggest question. Will he opt-in? Does he want to play somewhere else? Celtics Blog offered a deep primer on the decision. If I were Brad Stevens or Danny Ainge, I'd ask him what he wants, and assuming it isn't "a date with the Hawks, peace-out dude"... I'd try to accomodate. There's value in being an executive who does right by your players.

For this reason, there won't be any discussion of a Kemba Walker deal here either. Kemba says he wants to learn to win, and I'm willing to let Brad Stevens teah him.

If Gordon wants to stay, I'm excited about it. My top 6 from a team that had a very realistic shot at the finals are all coming back. A little more depth (and some injury luck), and this was a championship team.

Let's assume Gordon opts in, and wants to come back, which to be frank, is the option I'm sort of hoping for. At that point, I am going to try to thread the needle, adding a couple veterans who can help the roster today. and using the draft to find a few projects that, in a couple years, could be the ideal supporting cast around Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams.

In an ideal world, I'd find a way to sign both Jeff Green and Langston Galloway. They'd slot in as backups, combining with Smart and the Williamses to give me a lengthy, strong 2-way second unit (I'm assuming that Hayward and Kemba would play a bunch together with some the second unit to keep the ball moving, meaning Smart and Grant play a lot with the Jays).

In fairness, I don't think this is an option, using only the MLE and a veteran's mimumum offer, so I'd focus on Green, and then look at some combination of the 14th pick, Semi Ojeleye and Romeo Langford (along with Poirier, if needed, for salary-mathcing purposes) as a trade package for a guard who can hit from deep (Ben Mclemore comes to mind; more in a minute).

The 14th pick is a super interesting asset to me, becasue if I can't do a deal for a sniper, I might just try to move up and ensure I get one of Precious Achiuwa (top target) or Tyrese Haliburton. Both would help the Celtics in the short and long term. Both have super high upsides.

This is the whole "thread the needle" point. Using the pick (or even dealing up) on Achiuwa likely limits my ability to deal for a guard. In trades, Mclemore is a target for me. The Rockets seems like a natural target. They have a new GM, we have a few pieces that could be interesting, including Semi, who fits into the mold of undersized, strong guy who hits occasional 3s (PJ Tucker part 2?). Does Semi + Langford for Mclemore get a deal through, allowing me to focus on Precious (and Bolmero) in the draft?

Actually, yes, it does:

In the draft, Precious is obviously the top target with (an upgrade on) the 14th pick. If I need the pick to deal for a sniper, I'm taking a few projects with the leftover picks, ideally ending up with a combination of Bolmero (draft and stash), Isiah Joe/Emmanuel Quickley and Kenyon Martin Jr.

The roster now looks like this:

• Guards- Walker, Smart, Mclemore, Quickley/Joe (development project)
• Wings-Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Bolmero (Stash)
• Bigs- Theis, Grant Williams, Jeff Green, Robert Williams, Precious or KJ Martin (development project)

The development projects listed there join Taco Fall and Tremont Waters in the G-league.

FWIW: this actually might be my perfect offseason. It's quaint, but it improves the Celtics' depth immensely, while also keeping an eye focused on a supporting cast for the prime years of my Core 4.

****Moving on to Hayward wanting to go to Indiana.

If Gordon wants to go to Indiana.. I'm going to accomodate it, and my suggested approach would be as follows:

Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum and Drummond start games for me, and can be one version of a 4-out offense. Jeremy Lamb is my new 6th man. Drummond plays a lot with our second string, because having a big down low to truly bully second units for other teams mitigates some of the depth issues... and because Dan Theis has proven himself capable of being a key cog with the other 4 starters.

I'd immediately throw my full MLE at Shaq Harrison, because he fits the Point-Forward role, can be a backup to at least 3 spots (PG, SG and SF), and he's a tremendous defender.

Ironically, the drum I've been beating this whole series about a stretch 4 is going to go unanswered, barring Jeff Green accepting the veteran's minimum (seems unlikely). As such, in this version of reality, I'm probably going to keep Semi Ojeleye, who can, at the very least, get in the way of guys like Giannis and Lebron.

Depth chart is:

• PG- Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart (starter)
• SG- Marcus Smart, Jeremy Lamb, Jaylen Brown (depending on matchups)
• SF-Jaylen Brown, Shaq Harrison, Jason Tatum (again, matchups), Semi Ojeleye
• PF- Jason Tatum, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye
• C- Drummond, Theis, Robert Williams

It makes me sad to give up my Jeff Green pipe-dream here, but Harrison is too valuable a contributor in this version of the Celtics to forego.

My draft approach here actually doesn't change from the previous version. Precious is the target at 14 (and I'm willing to deal up to get him). Bolmero and Quickley/Joe are who I'm hoping for at 26 and 30.

***The curious case of Robert Williams

The depth charts above leave open an interesting issue: Daniel Theis will be a free agenct after this season, and as the team is constructed, Robert Williams is his heir apparent. The challenge, however, is that Theis is more of a dirty-work glue-guy (which seems to be something Brad Stevens likes in his centers), and Williams has a much different skill set.

This makes me debate William's role, in the short and long term. A trio of the Williamses and Precious seems like it would be super athletic and could give other teams fits moving forward... but it lacks a certain toughness. I keep coming back to Paul Reed as another draft project to target, not at the expense of the guys I've already mentioned, but as a Theis replacement in a year (or maybe a little further out). I love the idea of using Grant as a smallball 5, but Steve Kerr showed with Draymond (and Spolstra with Bam this year) that you can't have the small ball 5 take abuse in the post for 30 minutes per game in the regular season. This means the Celtics will need to have a backup C, who theoretically plays 15-20 minutes per game in the regular season (Grant plays a lot of 4, and slides down to the 5 to close out most games... at least until the playoffs roll around). Maybe there's a way to buy an extra early second round pick to get ahold of Reed and have extra options moving forwrd. This would give us another year to really identify what we have with Timelord, see how it fits into what we want to do, and then make a more educated decision on who will be the defensive anchor for the next few years of the Core 4.

This also makes me want to see what teams might be willing to offer for Robert Williams, beauty being in the eye of the beholder and all. Is there a team drafting in the top 10 or so that might be willing to part with a pick for Williams and the 30th pick? If so, does it make a Halliburton/Precious draft a possibility?

Tangentially related, Paul Reed is particularly interesting if Gordon Hayward opts in; at that point, we're not going to improve the 5 all that much, unless we're using the MLE on Harry Giles (I get the allure, but think Green is a better target for the roster as currently built). Reed, Grant Williams and Precious could be a really interesting trio of bigs in a couple years, and it wouldn't be awful for Reed to be understudy to Theis, Precious to be understudy to Green, and Grant to bounce back and forth between thr 4 and the 5.

Assuming Gordon stays, I'd like to see the Celtics pick up a veteran 3rd guard (along with someone to groom as his replacement) and a veteran stretch 4 (again, along with someone to groom into his replacement). I'd also love to see them get ahold of Bolmero, as a Hayward replacement possibility in a year.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 8- The draft

This draft is super interesting.

As has been explained on every site that addresses it, there's no clear cut number one pick. There's a top tier of ~3 players, but I'm going to assume the Celtics won't have the ammo to trade up into the top 3 picks to get Ball, Wiseman or Edwards (no, Bill Simmons, we're not trading Marcus Smart), and to be frank, that's OK with me. I don't see any of those guys as a fit for the Celtics as constructed anyway.

There are two players I really love in this draft:

• Precious Achiuwa- In the rant about a stretch 4, I mentioned Precious as someone I think can be a defensive menace and DPOY over time. That makes him my top target.
• Tyrese Haliburton- Haliburton is my second favorite player in this draft, a near Macrus Smart clone who can play next to the original in the same way the Raptors use two point guards and wreak havoc.

There's a version of this draft where the Celtics could end up with both, and I'll explore that in the next post (the idea would be to take a step back this year, but get to the point where in a couple years, the Celtics have the core 4 in their prime, and a wicked group of supporting players.

After those two, I have a couple of players that I really like, who seem to fit what the Celtics do, and could be really interesting.

• Leondro Bolmero- I love this guy. I think he'll grow into a very similar player to Gordon Hayward (if Hayward opts-in and stays in Boston, we'd have his replacement in 12 months, assuming Hayward signs elsewhere as a free agent).

From there, things get interesting. I'd like a sniper, and there are 3 that could be a fit.

• Tyrell Terry- Potentially the best shooter in this class, and the Celtics could use another floor spacer. Terry would be heir-apparent to Kemba Walker, and could also play with Marcus Smart.
• Isiah Joe- I *think* that I like Joe better than Terry, because his fit is a little easier given the current team. Joe's big enough to play the 2 guard next to Kemba (a Kemba/Terry back court will likely get pushed around a bunch, and isn't usable against certain teams). There's also the chance Joe ends up being a better shooter than Terry.
• Emmanuel Quickley- If the Celtics miss out on Haliburton, Terry and Joe, there's a super shiny consolidation prize in Quickley. The Ringer's scouting report compares him to Ben Gordon (microwave scorer), BJ Armstrong (multiple time champion), and Jeff Hornacek (HOF). I mean... that's some lofty darn company. He's smaller than I'd like (so is Terry), so his fit next to Kemba isn't ideal. But my goodness, those comps are amazing.

In terms of other players, there are a few more that largely fit as bigs (though the first one comes with a question mark about his position)

• Tyler Bey- To be totally transparent, I have no idea what to make of Tyler Bey. He's potentially a power forward that can switch everything (The Ringer's draft guide calls him a defensive lynchpin). Depending on the source he's listed as a big, a wing, or a guard who's got some length. He doesn't have a tremendous handle, but he can be a 3 and D guy who's also bigger than some of the folks who might be defending him... All I know is that his versatility seems like somehting Brad Stevens would take advantage of.... and that's not a bad thing. Over time, he could legitimately by the team's 6th man who's actually the primary backup for all 5 spots on the floor. Because he fits everywhere (and no where), I'm kind of smitten.
• Killian Tillie- He's sort of a poor man's Daniel Theiss, albeit with injury concerns and a better deep ball. If you're betting on talent, and considering a load management strategy (as a way to keep him healthy), He's a really interesting part of a 3-headed monster at the 5.
• Paul Reed This guy is interesting to me as someone who might be groomed into Daniel Theis' role. I don't love him as a 4, but as a hustle guy who does the dirty work, I'm absolutely on board.
• Kenyon Martin Jr- If the Celtics miss on Precious, I'm OK with Martin as a consolation prize, albeit one who needs some extra development time.

This draft has a lot of "choose your own adventure" for me. It all starts with the 14th pick. If there's a (reasonable) way to move up to ensure Precious is available, I make the move. He's going to be a stud, especially in a Brad Stevens defense.

However, if ther'es no way to get Precious or Halibutron, I maintain the hypothesis from the state of the roster post, it could make sense to deal the 14th pick for a pick next year. In that case, the Celtics could reasonably end up with Bolmero, Joe and KJ Martin this year (plus future assets as we start to rebuild our war chest). While none would contribute too much immediately (Joe has potential, of course), that's an amazing haul, and would provide a longer term fit for 3 of the 4 support roles I want to have players in around the Core 4. This approach is like a college team looking at an incoming freshman class and red-shirting a few guys. I'm perfectly OK with this, and think the Celtics could develop all 3 into major contributors.

All told, this draft is fascinating, and I can't wait to see what comes of it.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 7- State of the Roster

Did you know that the Celtics had 7 rookies on the team last year?

My guess is that you did... because it is on every mock draft, Celtics message board, rumor website, basketball podcast, blog, and I'm pretty sure it's been graffiti'd onto multiple walls in the Boston Garden.

Yes, the team has 4 draft picks (including their second rounder), and yes, the roster is incredibly full already, meaning that something has to give.

We've alread covered what the team needs, and in truth, it isn't hard to break it down to one type of player (a stretch 4) as the main target.

Walker, Smart, Brown as guards, Hayward and Tatum as forwards, Theiss and the Williams(es) is a pretty compelling 8 man roster... throw in Jeff Green and it's a heck of a lineup.

Noticeable absent are Carsen Edwards, Brad Wannameker, Semi Ojeleye, Tremont Waters, Enes Kanter, Javonte Green, Voncent Poirier, etc.

My feeling is that there should be an opportunity to consolidate some of these guys, and also to start to load up the cupboard with extra picks moving forward. Dallas is said to be looking for 3 and D players... would they kick a 2nd round pick in a couple years over for Semi? Can we connect with someone who was super high on Langford last year at the draft and try to deal him, maybe even along with a lower first round pick this year, for a future 1st rounder (or maybe packaging Langford with a pick to move up a few slots)?

I've been writing this series so far with the idea of an 8 man roation, but in truth, given the injury histories of Hayward and Walker, it's probably better to roll 9 or 10 deep, though it's hard to get to 9 or 10 deep with talented players (and again, limited roster slots). This breaks out to 3 bigs, 3 wings, and 3 guards (which means we can always play some combination of 1-2 guards, 1-2 wings, and 1-2 bigs, depending on matchups). The idea of adding Green (a 3rd 'big' to go with Theis and Grant Williams) leaves the team short one guard, especially given Walker's knee (let's assume that Boston press gets to spend next season talking about 'maintenence days' with Kemba). Wanamaker or a better combo guard can fit in here pretty easily... but again, it's a full roster already. This also leaves means when Theis is in foul trouble (or the Celtics are playing against a team with a strong big), there isn't a real backup center as part of this 9 man approach.

So, we look at consolidating. Dealing up in the draft or dealing out of the draft (Langford plus the 30th pick for a first rounder next year, or 3 years out?) both work. A draft and stash move with Bolmero could also be good.

The other issue at hand here is where we can find a player who might help immediately, to serve as a sort of bridge between the aging guys (Kemba and Hayward) and the Core 4.

All this was a very rambling, stream of conscience way of saying that this offseason will be complicated. The Celtics can look for teams that had a belief in a younger player, and try to trade for future assets. Or they can try to find teams that have seen the best in one of these young guys and hope there's some institutional memory (maybe the Cavs remember Carsen Edwards having a hot few minutes?).

In thinking this post through, I realize I'll need to expand my possible trade targets/lists in an actual shadow offseason, since trades that send 2-3 players out and get one back could (will?) be the best way to truly improve this roster and get the Celtics ready for banner number 18.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 6- a Pipe Dream

Daryl Morey is taking the Sixers job, which seems... odd. He's coming into a weird situation where Co-GM (Co-to-the-GM for Office fans?) Elton Brand has already hired a coach in Doc Rivers, added some assistants, and doesn't actually have a roster that fits together (or come CLOSE to the small ball approach Morey seems to love).

So, let's go crazy:

The Celtics give up Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, and a boatload of young talent. They get Ben Simmons, who Brad Stevens would use all over the court, and next to Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams... might just put up a triple double every night. Harris comes off the bench as a substitute for... well, literally all 5 starters. It's a positionless, future-of-basketball type lineup... and because of the situation with the fit on the Sixers roster... it's not entirely crazy*

The Rockets get, essentially, almost a full lineup as they clear the deck chairs, and can then deal Westbrook if they see fit. Desite what they've said about remaining competitive, maybe there's a chance they want to start fresh with a new coach and new GM.

The Sixers get Daryl Morey's binky (James Harden) along with the best facilitator Harden has played with (aside from Chris Paul). They also get out from Tobias Harris' contract.

To me, Ben Simmons is just about the player I'd most want to see on a Brad Stevens roster. He can handle the Evan Turner role (point forward), slide down to the dunker position against smaller players (everyone in general... but imagine the Heat using Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson to defend against one of Tatum, Brown or Simmons), facilite, run the point and get out into space. The Celtics might be the most fun team in basketball after a deal like this.

*Who am I kidding, there's no earthly reason for the Sixers to even think about this deal.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 5- A stretch 4

In the first part of this series, I shared that the Stretch 4 position is, in my eyes, Danny Ainge's blind spot. In 2008, a Jamario Moon-type player (that is, a freakishly athletic combo forward who catch switch everything, and give players like Lebron trouble) would have won the Celtics an extra title with KG, Pierce, and Rondo.

The Celtics haven't had this type of player since James Posey, and it's been a thorn in their side, every single year. Heck, this year, the Heat took old friend Jae Crowder and turned him lose in the role, with tremendous success (Crowder isn't as athletic as Moon, or a few other players I'll mention here... but he shoots better than most of them).

Jerami Grant is the ideal fit for this Celtics team. He can be a 4 that's able to switch everything, provide tremendous help defense, shoot 3's, dunk over everyone, and yeah... the list goes on and on. The problem, of course, is that Jerami Grant isn't walking through that door. He's going to get paid a lot more than the Celtics can offer in free agency, and as explained previously, the C's can't do a sign and trade because of where they are in terms of the cap.

So, that means we're looking elsewhere.

In terms of trade options, James Johnson in Minnesota could work. He's quite pricey though, so there's no obvious fit for a deal here.

Danillo Gallinari fits the mold here, but seems likely to get more than the Celtics can offer in free agency. Though his defense leaves something to be desired for this role, he's a lights out shooter.

If Gallo's too expensive, well, the free agent pickings are actually pretty slim. Thabo Sefolosha? Meh. Marvin WIlliams? Bring back Semi? It's bleak.

There is, however, one name on the free agent list that makes some sense... even if there are Celtics fans who will hate this. Jeff Green could be a perfectly viable do-everything 4 who plays with Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Willams, facilitates like a maniac, makes the right reads/passes, hits corner 3s, and dives down to the dunker spot when guarded by a guard. Am I crazy to think that, on a minimum salary contract, this is the exact right player for the Celtics as currently constructed?

In the draft, there are a few guys that seems like they could fill this role over time... Precious Achiuwa is the top target for me, and if I were the Celtics, I'd happily consider moving up to get him. He's freakishly athletic, and could legimately end up in the defensive player of the year discussion if essentially turned into a free safety with lots of length and strong defenders around him.

Though he's not my preferred choice, I feel like Jaden McDaniels checks a lot of the boxes I'm looking at, as well as being a guy that falls into the Celtics' typical wheelhouse (highly regarded HS player who struggles in their first year at college).

Paul Reed from DePaul has a lot of the attributes I'm seeking here, and could be a fit. Should that fail... a lot of the same things can be said about Kenyon Martin Jr (the C's have apparently already spoken with him), who will need more development time, and could be a guy the Celtics look at later.

Next up, a pipedream (or 2), a state of the roster, and a draft big board, and then a full offseason plan to wrap everything together.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts - Part 4- The Center Position

Let me start by saying that Daniel Theis is a fantastic starting 5 for the Celtics, as currently constructed. I'm also, as mentioned previously, a fan of the C's using Grant Williams at the 5 as part of a death lineup, with Tatum, Brown, Smart and Walker/(Athletic4 TBD- post to come) in an offense/defense switcheroo.

This means we're realistically looking at a backup center, who ideally, does something that Theis doesn't as a way to add some variety, for something like 15-20 minutes per game. Let's explore some options here:

• The Andre Drummond/Gordon Hayward swap has been beaten into the ground on the Trade Machine, and it does, sort of make sense. Drummond would likely displace Theis as a starter, and there's soemthing to be said for having a beast down low that can carry the team when shooting slumps come. Against the Heat, the Celtics went into long droughts. Having a guy on the block who can occasionally be the focal point would be great. That said, Drummond isn't a guy who can be part of a lineup to close things out (awful foul shooting), which might actually be OK, since the Celtics can theoretically use him with bench players as a way to add consistency over 48 minutes. I thoroughly believe this is the role the Enes Kanter was always meant to fill, but his liability on defense suh that he never really got to do so (small spurts here and there excepted).
• Miles Turner is another guy who's getting a ton of digital heat as a possible solution for the Celtics, and I think he fits better with what the Celtics are trying to do (5-out offense). He and theis seem to be remarkably similar to me (Turner perhaps a little more lengthy and athletic, Theis a little more fundamentally sound).
• Harry Giles has gogtten a ton of press as a potential option as well, likely for the Celtics MLE. He's friends with Tatum (I don't love the precident of going hunting for one of his buddies), but more importantly, he's got tremendous talent and versatility. Depending on the direction the Celtics go with other targets, Giles could be a short term platoon with Theis, and possibly a longer term starter with the Core 4.
• It's impossible to do a post about the Celtics' center position (and future) without a shout to Robert Williams, who to be clear, belongs in the conversation. If we're looking for a big guy with athleticism, one that brings a dimension that Theis doesn't, and one who can contribute in a bunch of ways, thinking of this guy as one who might take "the leap" isn't the worst thing in the world. Again, there are a lot of variables out there, but Williams should have strong trade value if he's shopped, or could be the Celtics longer term answer at the 5. And that's the rub... is Williams worh more as a trade piece to help balance this roster than he is as a support piece around the Core 4?

A couple quick things here:

The name Enes Kanter isn't listed as an actual option, despite havign the option to come back to the Celtics on a $5 million player option. Short version: I don't think he's coming back. Whether it's by trade (meaning he opts in) or him simply opting out, I don't see a situation where he plays for the Green again, and I took his full page ad in the Boston Globe to be him thinking the same. I'll explore his role in the offseason in another post.

Taco Fall also isn't mentioned here. I've been focusing very heavuly on a top 8 or 9 player group with these posts so far, and will do one that includes a few players who should be focused on development. Fall is in this bucket, with the idea that he could be called upon in the event of injury to handle the backup 5 monutes that aren't used by Grant Williams in a small-ball way.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 3- a Point Forward

My basis for this exercise can be found here. TL;DR version- Smart, Brown Tatum and Grant WIlliams are the core of this team, both today and over the next few years. They need a few players to support them, including a sniper, a point forward, a center (coming soon) and a stretch-4 (same).

This post is about the point forward role, which should be a guy who can do a little bit of everything. The ideal candidate here is a guy like Gordon Hayward (hey... wait a minute!), but with his status up in the air due to a player option, this feels like a positoon worth exploring further in depth.

If Hayward opts in, and there's no deal to be had to add some more balance to the roster, that's a great spot for the Celtics to be in. Hayward is an ideal piece here, and I love the idea of rolling Kemba and Hwyard with some bench players to ensure the Celtics don't go through crazy scoring droughts. They can be tremendous together. I also love how much the ball movement improves when Hayward is on the court with the Jay's.

However, even if he opts in, there's a chance this is Hayward's last season with the Celtics, so finding a player who can handle this role over the long term feels prudent. That might mean looking at the draft, or it could be making a deal for a player currently in the NBA.

If we assume that Hayward won't be back next year (and a trade won't include some sort of point forward coming back), there are a few options I'd want the Celtics to explore.

There has been a lot of buzz about old friend Evan Turner coming back, but I'd rather focus on a younger version of Turner, Shaq Harrison from Chicago. he's a weird player, and a weird fit, but he's 6'7, a capabale ball handler, a switch-everything defender, and can play a bunch of positions. I think he'd be tremendous looking over the top of a zone from the elbow, and while his outside shooting leaves something to be desired, putting him on the floor with a few guys who can shoot will limit the issue.

Regardless of what happens with Hayward, I love the idesa of a draft and stash with Leondro Bolmaro, who's essentially a Gordon Hayward starter kit, and could step in next year to the role Hayward (or Harrison) would be handling this year.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 2- A sniper

In the first post of this series, I detailed the approach to team building I've got. Short version... Smart, Brown, Tatum and Grant Williams are the core of this year, and the future, and the Celtics should do everything possible to supplment those guys.

The first type of player that would help is a sharp shooter.

Kemba Walker is obviously on the roster, and word on the street is that he's pretty darn good. When healthy, he's downright unstoppable. So, in general, Kemba can be the right fit here.

But Kemba has some injury concerns, and isn't exactly getting younger.

Because of the financial situation the team is in (Keith Smith breaks it down here), I think it would be beneficial to keep Kemba, and then look to find someone in the draft who could be a fit next to the Core 4. To me, there are a few names that make sense, with Tyrese Haliburton being the absolute perfect fit (the idea of Haliburton and Smart feeding the wings, and cutting hard off of screens from Theis/one of the Williams boys is almost too much for me to take). Assuming no deal to move up in the draft though, Tyrell Terry and Desmond Bane would also be fantastic options.

Going the draft route, however, means the Celtics might not end up with immediate help here. Sure, Walker, Smart and Brown could continually man the guard spots (sometimes with all 3 of them on the court), but this set up allows Walker to be targeted late in games, and requies some really aggressive offense/defense switching when it's close and late. That's not the worst thing in the world.

The Celtics have Brad Wannamaker (if they resign him), Carson Edwards, Tremont Waters... Wannamaker would be nice to have back (Anything is Poddible accurately refers to him as 'sturdy'... which isn't a bad thing for a 4th guard who allows the team enough depth to play 3 guard lineups). Edwards had a good shooting day, once.

Again, the goal is to find someone who can fit in with the Core 4 for this season, and lots more seasons to come. As such, I'm hoping that the C's can unload a few spare parts and find a way to add Haliburton, Bane or Terry.

***I wrote this with the idea that Kemba won't be traded, a position that feels super justifiable. He's an all star, playing on a max contract, and might be viewed as damaged goods by other teams. That said, if Danny gets a deal that makes sense, we'd need to be in the market for a sniper that can help in the near term. Assuming there isn't a guard coming back in the Walker deal, my fallback option (borrowed from the Athletic), is Langston Galloway. He'd be a strong 6th man who can fit into a couple different versions of small ball for the Celtics.

Some Random Celtics Thoughts- Part 1

Though I'm usually a college basketball fan, the pandmeic elminated a lot of choices, but did open my eyes to how much fun the NBA can be. As with the Red Sox, I tend to have a Boston loyalty, making an offseason series of shadow GM post for the Celtics seem logical.

Here goes.

Yes, the Celtics lost to the Heat, while playing short handed (to be fair, karma wasn't kind to the Heat and the Lakers now have 17 titles after defeating a short handed team... heck Pat Reilly talked about how the lakers absolutely won, but the Heat could deserve an asterisk). That said, the Heat did exploit a number of issues besides the Celtics injuries (hello Zone defense).

For me, the core of this Celtis team, both right this minute, and over the next few years, is 4 players deep

• Jayson Tatum
• Jaylen Brown
• Marcus Smart
• Grant Williams

The 4 of them can all pass, play defense, hit 3s, and they can switch everything. It's 4/5th of the Warriors Death Lineup, but younger. They can all also play multiple positions, with Smart as a 1/2, Brown a 2/3, Tatum a 3/4 and Williams a 4/5.

In other words, there's a boatload of versatility here, so instead of searching for supprt players who can fill multiple roles, it's possible to augment these four guys with players who do one or two things really well.

Let's discuss the 4 players who'd be ideal suppport for Smart, Grant and the Jay's.

The first type of player that would fit here is another guard, ideally somone who can be a facilitator, but can also shoot the lights out (another sniper would give it the full on 5-out offense that Celtics fans have continually been craving). Though his defense leaves something to be desired, the reality is that Kemba Walker is already in green, and can absolutely be a perfect fit next to these guys. We saw the Celtics lineup of Walker, Smart, Tatum, Brown and Theis wreak havoc in the playoffs... it isn't hard to make a compelling argument that running it back has some serious merits... especially if Williams can soak up some of the minutes Theis misses due to the war on fouls. The picks won't be as aggressive with Grant out there, but the ball movement might actually be better with Williams as a 2nd/3rd facilitator.

The second thing this group could use is a point forward, somone who can serve as a secondary facilitator, fit into the switch-everything scheme, and might be able to give teams a different look (especially if this player is paired with Kemba, which allows him to play off the ball a bit more). This role should also be a player who alternates with Smart (and Tatum?) hanging out at the elbow against the zone. Fortunately for the Celtics, there's Gordon Hayward, who is on the roster, seems likely to opt-in, and fits this description to a T.

These guys need a center who can body up the big guys, open lanes via the pick, and serve as a defensive anchor. If this player can shoot it from 3, that's ideal, even if it's only a couple times per game. They have an option on this player with Theis, who is sort of a perfect glue guy for this roster. Again, if we assume Grant Williams soaks up some backup minutes at the 5, and that Robert Williams can also be a conributor (more on this in a further post), this position might be in good shape, despite thousands of variations of Gordon Hayward for Andre Drummond/Myles Turner deals basically flooding the Trade Machine.

That leaves open a roster spot that's been a blind spot for Danny Ainge for years... a stretch 4. James Posey was the last one the Celtics had (they won a championship with him). This position could also be a freakishly athletic pogo-stick of a player who happens to be a strong defender. My personal belief is that the Celtics would still be one title in front of the Lakers had Danny been able to find one of these guys in 2008. I know the Perk injury was an issue, but Phil Jackson's adjustment to move Lamar Odom to Point-4, which took Kevin Garnett, Boston's best interior defender, out to the 3 point line (while Gasol feasted on a worn-out Rasheed Wallace) was the straw that broke the camel's back. As I recall, Jamario Moon was available that season at the trade deadline for a used basketball and a half drunken diet coke. Moon would have allowed Garnett to go head to head with Gasol (or allowed Garnett and Wallace to each play ~30 minutes, staying fresh), and instead of the 17-17 we're at with titles... it'd be 18-16.

That would bring us to an 8 man rotation, which means 8 guys who play 30 minutes per night (seems ideal), and then you can look at the rest of the bench as player to develop (and/or specialists).

Over the next few posts, I'll delve into each of the positions I think the Celtics should be looking at, with options (short and long term) on how to fill the roles.

2020 Draft Day 2 diary

If you missed yesterday's post, my fake Padres added Patrick Bailey and Tanner Witt (battery of the future?).

(2:00pm PT) Coming into the day, here is my board:

• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

With the 45th pick, I'm taking Sam Weatherly

(3:22pm) As the second round concludes, I'm worried no one has drafted Witt in real life, who's rumored to have a first round asking price. I was hopeful Cleveland, TB or LAD would have hopped in at the end of the 2nd, because those feel like 3 amazing landing spots for him (the Dodgers grabbing Landon Knack at the end of the round makes me wonder if they'll do it in the 2nd supplemental, and I'm crossing my fingers).

(3:31) Nope. They took Beeter... Miller, Knack and Beeter is a heck of a draft haul.

(3:49) The Astros took Santos, and it's making me think that I will end up needing to remember an extra pick next year. Onto the 3rd round, where I'm hoping for Halter.

(4:00) I'm wondering if this is one of those drafts where I got too cute, went too deep, and will end up signing like... 1 player.

(4:08) Colby Halter is there, and I'm excited to add him (who knows if he'll sign at this point?). In real-life, the Padres snagged Cole Wilcox, who feels like a steal if he signs.

(4:25)- Weatherly and Calabrese go back to back in real life... Powell is next on my board.

(4:53)- Powell goes to Was.

(5:10)<---Have to log off for a bit.. Will recap the rest of the draft in hindsight.

Houston took Tyler Brown? Thought he wasn't going to sign. Gah!

Frasso goes to the Blue Jays

Tyler McDonough is the pick in the 4th.

Little goes to the Cubs

Really like the Brewers pick of Wiemer. He was on an early follow list for me, but didn't make the final version

Ward would be my final pick here.

I very much like the Angels pick of Mason Hickman.

My final draft ends up with

• Patrick Bailey
• Tanner Witt (I'm guessing he goes to college)
• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter (Seems college bound)
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward

It will be interesting to see if any of the guys I drafted here sign for the $20k allotment...otherwise, I'm looking at Bailey and Weatherly... and nothing more.

The knowledge gap in what a team knows vs what the random dude on the internet knows is tremendous... Witt and Halter are guys who may have had a high signing request. Their real agent didn't return my pretend call.

2020 Draft Day 1

Came into the day with the following as my big board:

• Nick Gonzales
• Emerson Hancock
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Mick Abel
• Reid Detmers
• Tanner Witt
• Bobby Miller
• Tanner Burns
• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell... Also, see note below... this guy could go anywhere on my board from the Halter pick.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

Gonzales goes 7, Hancock 6, and Meyer 3, meaning at 8, I'm taking Patrick Bailey. Welcome aboard, Patrick. Loved this piece in The Athletic.

Abel goes 15 and Detmers 10, meaning Tanner Witt is my pick at 34.

Important to note, Bobby Miller (29) and Tanner Burns (36) are also now off the board.

Heading into day 2, the board looks like this:

• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

More to come.

2020 Big Board

Because of the oddities of this draft, I'm going to include a few contingencies in y big board... which seems like the best way to approach things:

Here is the board:

• Nick Gonzales- I had him below Hancock, but elite hitters are tough to find
• Emerson Hancock
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Mick Abel- I'm moving him ahead of Detmers. He's the top HS RHP... and might be slipping due to uncertainty
• Reid Detmers
• Tanner Witt
• Bobby Miller
• Tanner Burns
• Sam Weatherly
• Colby Halter
• David Calabrese
• Holden Powell- Moved him up to make it more likely we land him (assuming we don't draft McMillon)
• Tyler McDonough
• Braden Ward- Would remove him from the list if we get Calabrese
• John McMillon- Would not take him if we get Powell... Also, see note below... this guy could go anywhere on my board from the Halter pick.
• Patrick Riley
• Kevin Abel
• Luke Little
• Adam Seminaris
• Stephen Odina
• Nick Frasso
• Jason Savacool
• Alex Toral

Tyler Brown has been dropped from the list because he says he's going back to school.

There is a version of this draft that started off with 2 or 3 HS prospects (it wouldn't be crazy to get Abel, Witt and Halter). If that happens, I'm going to nee to use my 4th and 5th round picks on seniors to create some financial flexibility. The idea here is to say "after 3 HS players are picked, I'm switching to college seniors"... and that list is as follows:

• John McMillon- He's the only one who's also on my big board.
• Kyle Mora
• Luke Smith
• Duke Ellis

I'd offer the full $20k to any player on my board who isn't drafted... I'm going to assume my team's owner isn't being penny-wise and pound-foolish.

Wednesday can't come soon enough!

Franchise Draft Update 2016-2019

I got to thinking that it might be worth a look back to see where I hit, and perhaps where I missed, in recent drafts before the 2020 MLB draft is upon us.

2016 Draft Haul-

• Dakota Hudson
• Chris Okey
• Anthony Kay
• Ronnie Dawson
• Logan Gray- 2016 me is stunned this guy isn't on a hall of fame trajectory
• Kobie Taylor
• Andrew Calica
• Clate Schmidt
• Trey York
• Mitchell Jordan

In 2016, the two players I really wanted to get a hold of that I didn't were Garret Hampson (he's quite good) and Ryan Moseley (who's in th Dodger system).

2017 Draft Haul-

• Keston Hiura
• Quentin Holmes
• Keegan Thompson
• Nick Allen
• James Karinchak
• Justin Yurchak
• Chase Pinder
• Andrew Beckwith (went 960 in real life, KC)

Though he didn't sign this year, I also drafted Tarik Skubal. Talk about one who got away*.

2018 Draft Haul-

• Griffin Roberts
• Nick Northcut
• Colton Eastman
• Davis Martin
• John Aiello
• Matt Mercer
• Zac Susi
• Joe Demers
• Tarik Skubal *or not
• Mickey Gasper

I had to retrofit this one a bit, assuming the same decision early in the draft with Roberts and Northcut, but actually extending out the board.

The good news is that I stuck to my guns on Skubal, who turns this disaster of a draft into a not-so-bad haul, even if it went a very round about way to getting there. Jarren Duran was too low on my board, and is the one that got away here.

2019 Draft Haul-

• CJ Abrams
• Michael Massey
• Logan Driscoll
• Kyle McCann
• Andre Pallante
• Anthony Prato
• Ryan Ward
• Jeff Belge

Sebastian Keane is a guy I would have loved to have signed here, but it wasn't meant to be.

Breaking this into tiers (using Fangraphs' Board) with a major hat tip to Eric (and Kiley) based on Future Value (and prospect ranking in parenthesis):

55

• CJ Abrams (number 22)

50

• Tarik Skubal (number 53)
• James Karinchak (Number 115)

45

• Anthony Kay
• Nick Allen

40+

• Mike Massey

40

• Ronnie Dawson
• Kyle McCann

35+

• Andre Pallante
• Griffin Roberts
• Matt Mercer
• Logan Driscoll
• Quentin Holmes
• Keegan Thompson

Three of the top 115 prospects feels light, though it also excludes Hiura and Hudson, who are already contributing in the majors.

All told, it's possible that the makings/majority of a big league pitching staff are here, with Hudson, Skubal, and Kay forming the basis of a rotation (Thompson and Pallante on the way), and Karinchak, Mercer and any hopes of a bounceback for Roberts being a potentially good section of the bullpen.

I've got a lot of catching, for better or worse, and the middle of the diamond looks really good from a depth chart perspective (Abrams and Hiura could be a very interesting pair, and Allen would be a great trade chip or defensive sub, while Massey is also still there improving).

It's not a perfect system by any stretch of the imagination, but it isn't a bad one either. Lots of role players/trade chips, and a few really strong core players.

Looking forward to seeing what we can add to it in a week!

6/8/2020 Editor's note... changed Nick Allen to 45 FV and added Kyle McCann because of an update on Fangraphs

Early 2020 MLB Draft Big Board

This draft is incredibly hard to figure out. It's SO short. It's SO deep.

It's SO... complicated.

Usually, a few weeks before the draft I end up feeling like it would be great to trade down and end up with a few players who fit into my typical draft approach.

That is:

• College kids who've performed well against the cream of the crop, either on the Cape or Team USA (ideally pitchers who look like they can be innings eaters or hitters who fall into the 2b/3b/RF player type),
• A couple super high upside HSers to dream on (athletic pitchers or guys with tremendous up-the-middle tools).
• At least one college reliever that may or may not be able to move quickly, or develop into a multi-inning opener/headliner.

I'm also a sucker for players from non-powerhouse baseball areas (Northeast, Pacific Northwest, Nevada) and I can't get enough of the Big West.

The decision a few years back to use the Padres was a good one; in a 5 round draft, having an extra pick in the mid-30s feels like a crazy blessing.

My top 5 players have pretty much been set in stone all year, in no small part because of the shortened season.

• Emerson Hancock
• Nick Gonzales
• Max Meyer
• Patrick Bailey
• Reid Detmers

I debate Hancock vs Gonzales, a lot (though I suspect neither will be there at the 8th pick). If they were both somehow there at the 8th pick, I'd probably lean hitter (and Gonzales fits in with the Huira pick a few years back).

Coming into the draft, I feel relatively good that at least one of my top 4 players will be there. Detmers is sort of my safety pick. However, if all this goes to hell (assuming Torkelson Martin and those 5 are the first 7 picks), I'm going to look at

• Mick Abel

HS pitchers are always risky, but it seems like the pendulum has swung too far right now... and it's possible that Abel at 8 is somehow a reach pick according to the industry, and not high enough because of risk aversion. Abel vs Detmers was actually a big debate for me.

With the 34th pick, I've got the desire to play a lotto ticket. If he's there, I'm taking

• Tanner Witt

He's a two way player who's been (loosely) comp'd to Kris Bryant as a hitter. However, if I go with Abel in the first (not likely, but possible), I'd want to be certain I get one of the following college pitchers (over Witt):

• Bobby Miller- Showed the sort of progress I'd want to see a pitcher make, and comes from a great school in Louisville (Dan McDonnell was effusive in his praise for this guy on a D1Baseball Podcast)
• Tanner Burns- He's got ace=level stuff, and can be an innings eater.
• Sam Weatherly- This guy checks a lot of boxes. He's got experience starting and relieving. he was in the middle of a tremendous breakout. I absolutely over=-value Clemson pitchers.

Those guys are also my top targets with the 45th pick.

Here is the rest of my big board, with some comments here and there:

• Colby Halter- He's higher on my board than most, but he's a gamer who will be a first rounder in a few years.
• Tyler Brown- He's a relief pitcher with 3 quality pitches, and not a ton of mileage on his arm. There's a chance he's a full-fledged starter, but he could also end up being a headliner (throwing 4 or 5 innings as the second pitcher on a given day). Lately, I've come around on the idea of carrying 4 workhorse SPs, and a couple opener/headliner types of pitchers. Brown fits into that development mold (He and Weatherly would make for an interesting piggyback option),
• David Calabrese- He's a Canadian HSer with good plate discipline and tremendous speed. It isn't a draft unless I reach for a stolen base threat.
• Kevin Abel- Oregon State- Was once a sure fire first round pick (and College WS hero). He'd be a good get.
• Tyler McDonough- NC State- Switch hitting grinder with experience at catcher, 2b and CF
• Braiden Ward- Washington- If I get Calabrese, I'd drop Ward to my 'sign after the draft' list. If I miss on Calabrese, I bump him up in front of Abel.
• Patrick Riley- Northeast player who are heading to Vandy are my heroin (Isan Diaz, Rhett Wiseman and Kobie Taylor are previous examples, and I hate myself for not having Treyjean Fletcher ranked well on last year's board).
• Luke Little- San Jacito- I know he doesn't *really* throw 105.... but he's the sort of high end flame thrower who could end up dominating out of the pen.
• Adam Seminaris- LB State- He was carving this year... would have loved to see his final stat line. And I do love my Dirt Dogs
• Stephen Ondina- PR (little guy who can run)
• Holden Powell- UCLA- If I get Brown and/or Weatherly, I'm not sure I keep Powell on my list.
• Nick Frasso- LMU- A Frday starter with good stuff.
• Jason Savacool- Upstate NY and MD commit
• Alex Toral- My system has quite a few power hitting, lousy fielding 1b/DH types, but Toral was a guy I liked coming out of HS.

I think my ideal draft haul is either 4 college players and 2 HSers, or 3 and 3.

For purposes of this draft, I'd offer the full $20k teams are allowed to bid to undrafted FAs to everyone left on the list who isn't picked.

The length of the draft makes this a hard one to figure out. I could walk out of a typical draft with Weatherly, Brown, McDonough and Ward on the college side, Halter and Riley on the HS side, and be perfectly happy.

Thinking outside the box... there's might be a way to line up those 4 college players and shoot the moon (grabbing Abel and Witt 8th and 34th as a way to inject a ton of upside, balanced by the 4 safer college picks as the draft moves on, though this misses on Halter). Feels like what the Mets tried a year ago, and given the oddity of this draft... might make sense as a way to Zig when everyone else is allegedly going to Zag.