A belated Draft Diary

Coming into the second day of the draft, my big board looked like this:

• Belge
• Thompson
• Taylor
• Hampson (goes slightly before I would have taken him)
• Calica
• Schmidt
• York
• Moseley
• Jordan (goes in the 8th round to the Orioles)
• Hammond

That all ends up going as follows:

• Round 3, Pick 85- Jeff Belge (in real life he goes WAY later...the 32nd round... I'll end up with an extra pick next year, since Belge didn't sign)
• Round 4, Pick 114- Keegan Thompson (In real life he went in the 33rd, and he didn't sign... I'm sad he doesn't sign)
• Round 5, Pick 144- Kobie Taylor (In real life, he went in the 15th round, but signed for far more than the $100K slot... taking a $359K bonus. I'm thrilled to land him for that cost.
• Round 6, Pick 174- Andrew Calica (he went in the 11th in real life, and signed for $100k).
• Round 7, Pick 204- Clate Schmidt (he went in the 20th, and BA says he signed)
• Round 8, Pick 234- Trey York (he goes in the 9th in real life, signing for $25k... I'm thrilled to add him)
• Roung 9, Pick 264- Mitchell Jordan (he went to the A's in real life, 28 picks later, signing for $200k).
• Round 10, Pick 294- Cooper Hammond- Went undrafted.

If I had it to do again, I'd move Logan Gray down a bit, so that I can snag Hampson. I'd move Moseley up a bit so that he ends up on my roster as well.

Dollar wise, I end up far under the bonus allotment, which actually makes me a little sad. I should have done a better job in making sure there was an injury risk or HS player I was really interested in.

Padres Shadow Draft for Day 2

Recapping day 1, I've added a pair of college pitchers, and a trio of hitters. Hudson, Kay, Okey, Dawson and Gray feels like a strong haul for the first day. Based on what's left form my big board, I'm going to shift some guys around, trying to add some upside. Going into today, my big board now reads:

• Belge
• Thompson
• Taylor
• Hampson
• Calica
• Schmidt
• York
• Moseley
• Jordan
• Hammond

If I land two of the top 3 here (Belge, Thompson, Taylor), I'm going to move Schmidt of York up to and a senior sign and open up some funds.

Enjoy the draft!

Padres Shadow Draft Day 1

Day one is in the books, and man, it was an odd one. Here is how things go for me:

• Ray- Goes 5th to the Brewers.... there was a brief moment where I was hoping he'd make it to me.
• Senzel- 2nd pick in the draft. The Reds have something in mind, and I like what they're doing with this pick.
• Hudson- With the 8th pick in the draft, Hudson is there, and I'm taking him. The Padres IRL are trying to be clever with the Quantril pick, so it will be fun to compare these two careers. Also, IRL, Hudson couldn't have landed in a better spot. Upon seeing the Cardinals stop his free fall, the only reaction is "yup, that makes sense."
• Pint- Went 4th to the Rockies. I can't imagine that's going to help his career.
• Dunn-The Mets grab him at 19. I was REALLY hoping he'd slide to the 24th pick.
• Anderson- The 3rd pick? Anyone who listed to Jonah Keri's podcast with John Copolella knew something crazy was goig to happen at the 3rd pick. This was that surprise.
• Perez- Remember that note about Hudson and "of course they did"... same thing here.
• OkeyI'm excited to land Okey with the 24th pick. He's going to be a stud. IRL, he goes at the top of the 2nd round to the Reds, so this isn't too much of a reach.
• KayLoving this pick for me too. IRL, Kay goes a few picks later (to the Mets, whose big board seems to look a lot like moie)
• Dawson- IRL, he goes 61 to the Dodger, so I grabbed him a few picks early.
• Gray- At 71, I'm picking up Logan Gray.
• Jefferies- Goes to the As befoe I have a chance to draft him
• Hampson
• Belge
• Moseley
• Taylor
• Calica
• Thompson
• Schmidt
• York
• Jordan
• Hammond

MLB Draft Day Big Board

It's draft day!!!!... which means it's time to roll out my full blown big board. Part 1 of the preview can be found here. Part 2 here, and part 3 here.

This post is a compilation and update to those posts, and will also add some comparisons of where my rankings are vs where the industry is. I'm going to keep the majority of post 3 on the side this year, with the idea that different players I referenced in the 3rd post might become more valuable depending on how things go. For example, if Delvin Perez falls to me, I'll plan to bump someone like Clate Schmidt up a bunch of my board (senior sign + later-than-expected HS'er should leave me room to sign everyone.

One more thing... D1 posted its top 150 prospects draft prospects (I left their rankings out since they're subscriber only), whereas BA did 500, and so did PG. If you're reading this blog, you either have WAY too much time on your hands, or you're someone who should try to support those sites. They're incredible.

Without further ado:

Player	School	Level	Notes	BA Rank	PG Rank
Corey Ray	Louisville	JR	Ray has been at the top of my board for around 18 months. Nothing hes's done made me change my mind.	7	3
Nick Senzel	Tennessee	JR	Nothing has changed here	6	7
Dakota Hudson	Mississippi State	JR	Nothing has changed here, either	14	15
Riley Pint	St. Thomas Aquinas	HS	The first HS on my board. I can't imagine he is falling to the 8th pick, but stranger things have happened	2	2
Justin Dunn	Boston College	JR	Here is the first diversion for me from my first draft board. Dunn's stock is soaring, in part because of how he's pitched in the post season.	22	33
Ian Anderson	Shenendehowa	HS	If he lasts until my back to back picks, this would be a steal	12	9
Delvin Perez	International Baseball Academy,PR	HS	Getting popped for PED's has me worried, but with 3 pick in the first round, I'd roll the dice	9	9
Chris Okey	Clemson	JR	nothing changed here	52	47
Anthony Kay	Connecticut	JR	nothing changed here	35	43
Ronnie Dawson	Ohio State	JR	He's had some serious helium, so I'm moving him up to make sure I'm in striking distance when the 3rd round comes around (maybe even the 2nd round)	53	143
Logan Gray	Austin Peay	JR	I don't understand how this guy is ranked so low. I can't get the Ryan Braun comp out of my head	169	140
Daulton Jefferies	Cal	JR	A missed season hurts, but it could also mean more bullets in the gun	61	45
Garrett Hampson	Long Beach State	JR	I've flip flopped on whether Hampson or Solak fits into my draft board, and on decision day, I can't get away from the idea that Hampson has a higher upside (and a lower floor). I think I'm putting Hampson here so that all of the pitching staffs on his teams get to play with a quality SS (probably a philosophical thought for another day)	156	201
Jeff Belge	Henniger	HS	He slots in nicely here, and with the actual draft, might slide up depending on how things are going	68	168
Ryan Moseley	Texas Tech	JR	nothing changed here	NA	NA
Kobie Taylor	Portsmouth	HS	He might move up in the actual draft	259	351
Andrew Calica	UC Santa Barbara	JR	nothing changed here	235	251
Keegan Thompson	Auburn	JR	I'm moving him up a bit, because I think he's going to be a tremendous value	232	392
Clate Schmidt	Clemson	SR	nothing changed here	493	NA
Trey York	Eastern Tennessee	SR	nothing changed here	NA	NA
Mitchell Jordan	Stetson	JR	nothing changed here	418	NA
Cooper Hammond	Miami	JR	nothing changed here	NA	NA

There it is

Happy Draft Day!

Ten more players on my big board

In some years, I've ended up with a surplus of guys on my big board, and in some, I've run out of players within the first 3 rounds.

I think my first couple posts, which identify a dozen college players, and five high school players, should give me a good start. But in case I end up with a situation where I need to draft more players, here's a set of ten more players I'm thinking about.

This list isn't in any sort of order (that might come with a final, inclusive big board post... though I might need to highlight where specific players fall into the mix if that's the case... Or I might leave it as is, to create some flexibility). Here is my college list of additional prospects:

• Garret Hampson- Hampson and Okey were two of my favorite players from the 2013 draft, and he barely missed my top 12 (in fact, it was a toss up between Hampson and Solak... the latter making it because of a stronger bat... though as we get closer... these two might swap spots).
• Mike Shawaryn- This guy was a work horse for a bunch of years in college, and in his draft year, he seems to have run out of steam. Whether it is because of an injury (which seems likely) or fatigue, I'd be thrilled to land this guy, tell him to go home and rest up for spring training (no touching a baseball), and seeing what I have next year.
• Keegan Thompson- Keegan Thompson is a SP at Auburn, who just missed a season with Tommy John surgery. He was also the ace of the 2012 Team USA under 18 team that brought home the gold medal (against Cuba, in the gold medal game, all he did was throw a complete game shut out with 12 Ks, seriously). It seems there should be a very real chance he goes back to college for his senior year, but maybe he can be talked into joining the pros. If so, I want it to be in my system.
• Zack Brown- Here is a guy whose sinker has been compared to a bowling ball. He's been up and down as a college player, but he's a terrific pitcher and workhorse.
• Clate Schmidt- Schmidt had been largely pedestrian this year, but his scouting report shows a guy who's won some big games, basically, by out-competing everyone he faces and pitching off a killer changeup. Here's the thing... coming out of HS, his scouting report was a guy with terrific stuff. He was diagnosed with cancer (the Red Sox did something really cool, drafting Schmidt and letting him talk to Jon Lester). Another year cancer free (which is awesome) and another year Chemo-Free (again, bigger than the game here, but an amazing story), I'm betting more of his strength comes back. Yes, he's a senior sign, but more importantly, he'l pitch in the majors, and be an amazing story.
• Andrew Calica- He's an OBP machine who switch hits and plays strong CF defense. Sign me up.
• Trey York- This senior sign from Eastern Tennessee is a 2b who has the following credits under his belt from this past year: More XBH than K's, a nearly equal K:BB ratio, double digit HR and SB, a 70% SB success rate. Sign me up, please.
• Brian Dalbec- There is no way this guy makes it to me, but every time I hear his game and think about his game, I keep coming back to one name: Micah Owings
• Mitchall Jordan- I don't know what to make of this guy. On the Cape... he was Greg Maddux. Seriously... just... just... just... ok. I don't know what changed, but I'm hoping my scouts and coaches do, since Jordan proved capable of dominating against guys his age.

Let me also tack on a couple more HS players.

• Dylan Carson- Carson is a Cal State Fullerton commit. The switch hitting 1b has been comp'd to a very young Mark Teixeira, who was a terrific player for a long time (and still is). Snagging Carson would be a nice later round pick up.
• Kobie Taylor- As far as HS players go, "Northeast athlete that's been recruited to Vanderbilt" falls very, VERY high on my list of types. Isan Diaz, Rhett Wiseman, and now Kobie Taylor. There's a good chance this is the guy I try to put on my roster, and then spend every dollar I've got from under slot deals on.

With a week left before the draft, my next couple posts will focus on putting some order into a big board, and then doing some comparisons on how players line up across the land (using public sources as a baseline). As with last year, I'm also planning to do a shadow draft.

2016 MLB Draft Preview- the HSers on my draft board

Let me start this one by saying I don't have any intention of going HS player with my first pick. I'm hoping one of Ray, Senzel or Hudson makes it to me at the 8th pick.

That said, there is one HS guy for who I'd bend my rule here, and that's Riley Pint. A recent BA podcast discussed Pint, saying we have never before seen a HS pitcher that throws 100+ and has a plus changeup. He's unique, and possibly the most likely player in this draft to end up a hall of famer. As such, if he's there, and my 3 college guys are gone, I swallow hard and roll the dice.

At 24, there are two more HS guys I'm looking at:

• Ian Anderson- The guy has electric stuff, and as a Northeast arm, there should be some bullets left in the tank.
• Delvin Perez- The comparisons to Correa are unfair, but Perez is said to be an electric athlete with terrific defense and top end speed.

I'm assuming neither is there, but should something strange happen, I'll swing for the fences with either player.

Beginning in the second round, I start looking at Jesus Luzardo, if he is on the board. He's been called the "safest" HS pitcher (at least, that was before the his injury). Jeff Belge is in the discussion here too.

After the 3rd round, I'm considering Nick Quintana, the hard hitting 2b from Nevada (could he develop into what Senzel is today?), and I'm keeping an eye on Trevyne Carter, a 6'3 LHH CF from Tennessee with incredible athleticism.

There's absolutely a chance that a few more HS players make it onto my final big board, but for now, these are the guys I'm hoping to land. Being realistic, Pint, Anderson and Perez are unlikely to make it to my roster, but landing any (or all) or Luzardo, Belge, Quintana and Carter to supplement a strong college draft would be an amazing coup.

MLB Draft Preview- big board in progress

Forgive me for paraphrasing here, but Jimmy Johnson, the guy who built all those winning teams in Dallas, used to say something to the effect of "your draft board should be a list of all the available players you'd want to have on your team." As such, my draft boards, in Strat, Shadow Drafting and even my own head tend to be fairly short. I look for, and find, a couple dozen or so guys that I want t root for. This year, I found that to be the case again.

More so than ever, my involvement in a Strat league requires me to be aware of a HUGE number of players. Our rules of who is eligible for the minor league draft is "anyone who isn't a major leaguer." This means there are 14 years old who might be a high pick in 2020 already off the board.

For me, I tend to end up with a college heavy draft picks, ideally with a high upside HSer or 3 thrown onto the board.

You can find my actually take on drafting as part of a previous series... it ends here)

This year, I've realized that I had been overvaluing particular HS players in drafts. For example, I had Michael Chavis higher than Luke Weaver and Brandon Finnegan. It kills me to think of what those pitchers would fetch in a deal in Strat, fantasy leagues, or anything else.

So, without further ado, here is the start of my big board as of May 24...

• Corey Ray- He's a potential 30/30 guy with the potential to put up a .300/.400/.500 slash line. What's not to love?
• Nick Senzel- Doubles power galore (which is critical since the team I'm drafting for is in San Diego), athletecism to play SS, 2b and 3b, and yeah, numbers that are absurdly good against SEC Pitching? Sign me up!
• Dakota Hudson- My love of the Cape league is already established. Add in that this guy followed my ideal path, spending time in the bullpen figuring it out before making his debut in the rotation and then domination plus-plus competition? Listen, there should be bullets left in the gun and an ace-like possibility here.
• Chris Okey- I've talked and written at length about trying to find up-the-middle HS talent to compliment college pitching and corners. Sometimes, the up-the-middle HS talent I am smitten with goes to college and ends up available... Chris Okey is that guy. Coming out of HS, he was known as a defense first catcher with a ton of athletecism. Not he's a guy who still has that reputation, and is putting up an OPS between .950 and 1.000 against terrific pitching. Look, the guy has been comp'd to the best of Jason Kendall, who I love more than anyone as a catcher. I know I'm higher on Okey than most folks will be. I don't care.
• Justin Dunn- Up until a week ago, Daulton Jeffries held this spot... but I can't help but move up a reliever turned starter from the north east who's been dominant against top tier competition. If "Arms from the Northeast + HS pitchers with athleticism + college relievers with a chance to become great starters" are my 3 pitching notes.... then this guy belongs in my top 5.

That's my top 5. I am positive it isn't like most people's top 5, but I'm ok with that. Moving on, I come to:

• Anthony Kay- Northeast arms and guys who have pitched for team USA fall into my weaknesses, so Kay fits the bill. He's a lefty with the potential for 3 plus pitches, and every time I think of a comp, I come up with Adam Conley (a major leaguer) on the low end and Jon Lester (a Boston God) on the high side. Sign me up.
• Logan Gray- No one has Logan Gray in the their top 20 (never mind top 10), but I have a comp in my head that I can't get out: Ryan Braun. He's a 3b with questionable defense, amazing athleticism (20/20 in college), more walks than Ks... I can't help it. I want him in my system.
• Daulton Jeffries- He's a terrific pitcher who's been snake bitten by injuries. Recently, a report circulated that he should be OK, and won't need surgery. That's good news. The bad news, of course, is that he's missed a lot of development time.
• Ronnie Dawson- I love midwest bats that are under-appreciated.
• Nick Solak- The safest middle IF in the entire draft, as far as I am concerned.

Now we're getting on through it, and there are 2 more college pitchers I want to make sure I get into my roster.

Ryan Moseley- Coming into the season, Moseley was expected to be the Friday starter for a Texas Tech team that is currently in the top 10 in College Baseball. He hasn't. Instead, he's been effective in the bullpen, while also (reportedly) serving as a stabling factor for the very, VERY young pitching staff in Texas Tech. I get it.. this isn't how he drew it up, but I'm going to assume he's learned from it. Oh yeah, one more thing. His Sinker has been compared to that of Derek Lowe... wait... what? Yeah... a guy who managed to save some bullets, learned to be a leader AND throws a sinker comparable to D-Lowe. D-Lowr with a make up? HELL yeah!

Cooper Hammond- He's a Miami reliever with a funky delivery who might bring back shades of Dave Berg had Dave berg not left college one year ago. At his best, Chad Bradford was a terrific pitcher who got a ton of big outs for the Oakland A's. I'm not saying Hammond can be that guy... but I'm also not, not saying it.

The list above brings up a problem. It's 12 college players. The next post will add some HS players to the discussion, showing where the might rank on the board.

After that, I'll do a list of players I'd be happy to add, assuming my guys are off the board.

Searching for Carl Willis

This isn't a post about the fact that David Price hasn't gotten off the to best of starts (I'm willing to be optimistic, even if I didn't love the signing). It also isn't a post chastising the pitching coach of the Red Sox... not really anyway. It's more a question about a couple of recent headlines:

• At the end of April, rookie pitcher Henry Owens got beat up, giving up 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Not the start he was looking for to be sure, but one of the more interesting story lines was about how it was Chris Young, a reserve outfielder, and Clay Buchholz, a pitcher that pulled the rookie into the video booth to review a mechanical flaw that was tipping pitches, and letting the Astros know what pitches were coming.
• Speaking of Price, the story today on the lefty is that Dustin Pedroia, the team's all-world second baseman, is helping him get back on track.

For those of you keeping track, it's an outfielder, an infielder and a pitcher that are helping the starting pitching get things rolling. None of those guys are a pitching coach.

There are a couple of possibilities as to why these stories are popping up. On one hand, maybe the PR team for the Sox is anxious to promote the team vibe (maybe after a couple years of rough finishes, the team is looking to build the impression of a rah-rah group of guys?). Boston is famous, after all, for having a team full of 25 guys who need 25 cabs. It could also be that Willis is a shy fellow who doesn't want a lot of credit and isn't interested in seeing his name in the paper.

I have a problem with this, mainly in terms of optics. Juan Nicasio, a pitcher who signed with the Pirates as a typical Pirates reclamation project, said "Everybody talks about, 'You go here, you get better...'". Stories highlighting how players are doing the coaches' job don't exactly inspire courage for a player who desperately needs a change of scenery to get thing going (Jake Arrieta being a terrific example).

As I'm typing this, Stephen Wright just wrapped up a complete game, 3 hitter in the Bronx, allowing a garbage time run in the 9th. Carl Willis probably deserves some credit for the way that Wright is pitching (unless do-it-all player Brock Holt worked on a knuckler in the off-season?). It would be nice to get an idea of how much credit he deserves.

Maybe this is far more typical than I think it is... player noticing things and sharing with their teammates doesn't sound like a bad thing. Maybe it's just the narrative the Sox want to craft. But maybe, just maybe, there is something to keep an eye on here. The backup OF sure seems to be doing so.

Fixing Basketball

March Madness, and the conference tournaments leading up to it, is among my favorite times of the year. Yet somehow, I can't bring myself to be even remotely interested in the NBA. I've been thinking a lot about that,... perhaps because Kobe Bryant's retirement has been everywhere, or maybe because we're coming off an amazing run of tournament basketball that had a surprising run by Syracuse, and an unbelievable final few seconds.

So, what's lacking? What can change to get me interested in the NBA. Oddly, my attempt to play basketball czar and cure some of what ails the NBA ended up with a laundry list of things I'd like the NCAA to do better:

• Regarding the NBA draft, I'm going to change things up and borrow from the MLB's approach. If you're a HS senior, you can be drafted. If you go to college, you have to be there for 3 years before you're eligible to be drafted again. I'm not the first to suggest this (in fact, the recent Jonah Keri Podcast with Jonathan Abrams mentioned something like this), but when you think about it, this makes sense. Basketball isn't rocket science, but there is a very real physical component to the game. Very few 19 year olds come into the league ready to battle, and I think a couple years in school getting ready will make it so rookies can contribute far more effectively.
• This has an added benefit of improving continuity of teams in the NCAA. It puts out a better product for fans, lengthens the playbook for coaches, and is a win all around.
• That said, I'm absolutely going to change the way the transfer rules work. Simply put, if a player goes to play for a coach at a school,and the coach leaves, that player can leave and play at any school without sitting a year (except the school the coach goes to). Borrowing from Gregg Easterbook, I don't think players should be penalized if they're left behind by a coach who was unwilling to fulfill his promise.
• Going outside the box a little bit... I'm going to blow up the way we approach the Olympics and World Championships.... I'm sending the college team that just won a championship. Pack your bags Villanova, you're going to Brazil. Look, I know there would be some logistics to work out, especially having to do with allowing the team to practice more often (I'm sure the NCAA rule book would need to be broken for this). But how cool an opportunity would this be? For NBA players, if you're a player from another country who wants to play for the homeland, that's OK, you're allowed. But in terms of the team representing the US? I'm sending the college kids. **A quick note or two: Guys who are graduating seniors are 100% going to the Olympics. I want to send the players that just won a championship. Also, for a guy would drafted between the end of college season and the Olympics, he's going too. Finally, each player that goes should get a big insurance policy, in case an injury derails their career.
• I want to break up the mega conferences. I know that they're good for getting TV deals, but these 18 team conferences limit the annual home and home series between teams, and quash rivalries. I'm not a fan. Also, anyone who knows me will understand the next one... each conference should have a streaming TV package available.
• I don't know how, but I want to create a mechanism that keeps great coaches at second tier programs in place. Shaka Smart should have been a VCU Lifer, just like Coach L should have been able to build the program he wanted to build at George Mason. I don't know what it is, but if I'm basketball czar, presumably one of the smart people who work for me has a good idea.
• I'm absolutely giving the college basketball world a new way to kick off the non conference schedule. After a tune up game or two, I'm hosting regional tournaments (and playing them tournament style, with one team winning it). I may be borrowing a little bit from the Bean Pot, but that's OK. In the DC Area, this means Georgetown, Maryland, Mason and GW in a tournament (call it the President's cup). In the Mid-West, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Louisville and Kentucky are kicking off the season by going head to head. The Philadelphia Big 5 are getting together for a donnybrook. In Boston, UMass, URI, Providence and BC can get together. Etc. And I'm making this weekend of tournaments the real kick off to the NCAA season.
• I'm undoing the decision to break up the Big East. Welcome home Syracuse... welcome home.

Turning to the pros, only one other thing came to mind:

• I've written about how MLB seems to have forgotten that All Star games should be fun. For the NBA, I'm going to change the format of the All Star game, making it mixed. The new rule would be each team is made up of NBA and WNBA all stars, and coaches need to have 2 women on the floor at all times.

What do you think? Good ideas? Not so much? Hit me in the comments.

Red Sox Notes- Sandoval, Buchholz and Adam Jones

We're around 5% of the way through the season, so it seems like a perfect time to offer an arm chair critique of the Red Sox.

Nope... still too early.

That said, there are a few things we've learned from the team so far.

• This Panda signing is looking awful. In one of those things that seems almost unbelievable, the guy's belt exploded during an AB, because... of course it did. This guy is snake bitten in Boston thus far, and this incident gives the Boo Birds more ammo on which to feast. The Sox made the smart move, putting him on the DL with a bruised ego shoulder issue. I hope he gets out of town, spends a little time with friends and family and finds his sense of humor. The Boston media can be brutal (same with the fan base), and while some of this seems self-inflicted, I can't remember a guy who had a more brutal start to a season.
• Speaking of birds, I really like the way Adam Jones stood up for a teammate who was booed by fans on opening day. It's all speculation, but I wonder if someone standing up for Panda might help the guy out.
• The idea of Sandoval is getting released is crazy. It just can't happen as we're 1 year and 8 games through a 5 year deal.... can it?
• Maybe Clay Buchholz isn't an ace, but that might be OK.... Curt Schilling gave an interview (of course he did) where he said maybe we need to adjust our expectations on what the greasy-haired SP brings each time he takes the mound. Look, Buchholz seems like one of those guys who is never fully healthy, but who's good when he is. The question for the Sox should be, how do we handle that? Can we move his starts around to maximize rest and keep him upright, and do so without messing up everyone else's routine?
• It feels a lot like Stephen Wright could end up being this team's 2nd or 3rd best starter this year (assuming Rodriguez comes back healthy and picks up where he left off, and barring a trade). I love Stephen Wright, but I'm not sure that's a recipe for a post season birth.

Boston Game 1 is in the books

In the home opener at Fenway, the Red Sox $200 million pitcher gave up 5 runs in 5 innings; the closer Boston gave up a TON of prospects for gave up a 3R HR and took a loss; and David Ortiz, the hometown hero in his final Fenway Opening Day ground into a double play with men on base and a chance at a walk off.

I'm guessing that's not exactly how they drew it up in the off season.

Obviously, I'm kidding. It's only one game.

Hope tomorrow is a better day for the hometown team.

Opening day predictions

Given the start of the season today, seems like as good a time as any to make some predictions:

In the NL, Nationals, Cubs and Giants will win their divisions, while the Mets and Pirates earn the wild cards.

In the AL, Red Sox, White Sox and Astros win their divisions, while the Orioles and Indians earn the wild cards.

Some individual awards:

• AL MVP- Chris Davis
• NL MVP- Andrew McCutchen
• AL Cy Young- Marcus Stroman
• NL Cy Young- Noah Syndergaard
• AL ROY- Blake Snell
• NL ROY- Trea Turner (he'll make me regret the day I traded him in Strat-O-Matic)

Play ball!

Four moves I liked

With MLB's opening day coming this weekend, it seemed like a good time to point out a few off season moves that left me impressed. If you're a regular reader, you're aware that I don't love the free agent mega contracts... I'm a believer in building from within, and then augmenting with smart, lower cost and lower risk signings.

As such, here are a few that caught my eye this year.

• Mat Latos- Whitesox- The Hardball Times pointed out that no one is as good at keeping players healthy as the White Sox. Latos is a guy who, when healthy, can be dominant. This is a match made in heaven. I'm anticipating a terrific season from Latos, and the Whitesox to make a bunch of noise in the AL central.
• Garin Cecchini- Brewers- The Brewers picked up a guy who's been a terrific hitter throughout his minor league career, and whose struggles seemed to coincide with a switch in positions. He's been high up on all of the prospect lists (BA, BP, Etc). I acknowledge this guy is a bit of a personal cheese-ball (H/T John Manual for the verbiage), but I think he's going to end up being a year, year good player for the Brewers for the next few years. And it kills me that the Red Sox, a team that just benched their $90 million 3rd baseman, dropped this guy in the off season. Anyone want to give odds on who ends the year with better numbers: Shaw or Cecchini?
• A little off the beaten path for me, but was the rest of the league sleeping when the Dodgers signed Kenta Maeda? $3 million per year, with more if the guy pitches well? It's an absolutely ideal contract for the Dodgers, who, at the very worst case scenario, spent 1.5% of their budget on a long reliever?
• John Jaso- Pirates Two years and $8 million for the strong half of a platoon? Add in the fact that he, based on how many catcher have made this transition, will likely be an above average defender (my personal theory is that guys who spent the better art of their career picking pitches out of the dirt will easily transition to digging out throw from other IF's... so while his range may not be great, he'll make the rest of the infield better), and this is a great signing.
• Bonus pick: Toronto has a history of taking struggling power hitters and turning them into monsters. Could Dominic Brown be the next one?
• Amateur signing:Eddy Julio Martinez - Cubs- It's not an inexpensive signing, but this is a guy who's regularly comped to Andruw Jones. I know the Cubs brought back Dexter Fowler, but the idea that Martinez and Solar could become part of a young, dynamic outfield together (throw in Schwarber, and is there another OF you'd rather have for the next 6-8 years?). This was a terrific signing for Theo and Co.