Friday, January 9, 2015

2014 draft tier 3

Continuing my 2014 MLB draft tier articles (tier 1 here and tier 2 here):

As a reminder, Tier 3 is "safe" colleague guys who I think will end up having an MLB career.

  1. Mark Zagunis- He comps to Jason Kendall, who I absolutely adore as a player (at some point, I'll review his book, which had some very interesting pieces of info in it). I love the idea of a catcher who can be a number 2 hitter, because it allows me to have an extra position player who hits for power somewhere in the lineup.
  2. Daniel Gosset- There are a few things I like about Gossett. First of all, I think it was a bold decision to sit out of summer leagues (I understand entirely that I mentioned how much I value competition against one's best peers in these ranking, so bear with me, because this is really counter intuitive). I think, having never spoken with Gossett, it means the guy knows his arm, and knows when to lighten up the load (the alternative is that he's lazy, but I'm sticking to the positive on this one). Second, I think that so called "short" pitchers are undervalued. SUre, Tim Lincecum seems to be done after "only" a couple Cy Young season. Marcus Stroman just put up a 4:1 K/BB, and won 11 games as a rookie. Seriously? A draft pick gives me those seasons, and I'm doing cartwheels.
  3. Sam Travis-Power hitting doesn't grow on trees, and while "Mike Napoli" is the upside here, Mike Napoli is a darn good player... in fact, he was the clean up hitter on a world champion. I know that scouts rarely love the "righty/righty" profile, because it means a guy is going to hit. I think Travis will.
  4. Kevin McAvoy-A confession here. While I can't prove it, and I know how it looks that I've had 2 Redsox picks on my list here, I was in on McAvoy early. My actual note on his was something like: "What's better than a kid from Upstate NY who pitched in New England, and has gotten better every year?" I said previously that I think New Englanders are under-rated, because they simply don't get as much exposure, or playing time, as players in the south or in California. Essentially, McAvoy fits the profile here to a T, and his arm hasn't used a ton of bullets yet.
  5. Austin Cousino- He won Freshman of the Year, got on base in 59 out of 62 games, and looked like he was going to become a consensus first overall pick. His sophomore year, well, he regressed. Last year, heading into the draft, he played spectacular defense, got on base at 36% of the time, and stole 19 bases in 20 attempts. His downside here? 4th OF who plays great D and is a pinch runner. Upside? Well, his upside is whoever coaches him gets him back to doing the things he proved he could do as a Freshman, and the team that drafts him gets a quality leadoff hitter.
  6. Grant Kay- He's little, and went to JuCO, so he really only has one year playing against top quality competition. However, he can basically play any spot on the field, and somehow manages to hurt the baseball every time he hits it. He's a line drive machine. Upside might be something like Mark McLemore, who is stunningly underrated, or Ben Zobrist with a few less HR's and a few more 2b's.

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