Welcome Aboard Mr. Manfred

There's a new sheriff in town in MLB, and according to this report by Ken Rosenthal, he's open to exploring virtually any change that might benefit the game.

That's great news. However, it comes with a concern in my book.

Those of us who have played any fantasy sports (football, baseball, etc), especially in leagues that have been around for a while, all know the "new guy with ideas" who joins an established league.

• Hey, what is we change the number of keepers?
• Why don't we make it more expensive to keep a player?
• What if the rule is, you can't keep a player drafted before the 6th round?
• How come we can only carry 12 minor league players? Wouldn't it be better if it was limitless?

No one likes this guy. You wanna know how I know that?

I've been this guy.

Some of the ideas that Rosenthal kicks around in his article are good (enforcing the pitch clock is a great place to start). But there are a few that I think have the potential to hurt the game. Eliminating the shift? As Ken points out, we don't even know if the shift is as effective as everyone seems to think it is. Lowering the mound? Guys like Marcus Stroman would actually look like a little leaguer out there.

And let's not open the DH vs non-DH thing. I like the rule as it is. To everyone who says "wouldn't you rather see a professional hitter than a pitcher flailing away?"... I have two responses:

1. You're obviously not a fan of schadenfreude.
2. You've never been part of the unencumbered joy that comes when a pitcher gets an RBI (or better, a HR). The feeling can only be described as Christmas Morning meets the feeling when you use a new toothbrush for the first time (I almst called this 'Christmas Morning on Steroids'... but I didn't want to be the first post to show up under Google searches for 'Manfred and Steroids.' It's a lot harder to have Christmas Morning meet something in a positive way than you'd think).

Finally, comes what I think is the most interesting part of the challenge here.

In order to add offense, you almost, by design, have to add length to a game. Walks are a key component to scoring runs, which means AB's take longer. As such, you really can't "add offense" and "speed up the game" all at once without something drastic.

7 inning games? 2 strikes you're out and 3 balls a walk?

Eek.

Small ball adds excitement, so maybe the goal isn't to find new ways to add offense. Maybe the goal is to make the offense in a game more exciting, and perhaps, by virtue of the cycle* we're in, it's going to take care of itself. A 4-3 victory, with quality pitching that features a suicide squeeze as the winning run can be really darn exciting:

In fact, that's one of the most exciting games I've ever seen live.

To be fair, Rosenthal ends his column with something like "don't get up in arms yet... many of these are spitballing and may never see the light of day" I hope he's right. I'm happy that the new fearless leader of MLB is open to discuss any possible way to make the game greater. I just hope he's patient enough to realize that not every rule change is a good one.

Wrapping up the 2014 draft

***Let me start by saying... ugh! Occasionally, you see a name, and somehow manage to think he is someone else. In my last post, I mentioned Chanlder Shephard as a SS/RHP guy drafted by the Reds... and yeah. I wasn't in the ball park. I was thinking of Cory Thompson, drafted a year earlier (hindsighting is a pain). My apologies for the mistake. Won't happen again, because I'll be posting these in advance of drafts. For starters my 11th round pick: I don't have a player. Some years, there is an obvious choice (or 2), but in 2014, I don't have one. Tuem in during the 2015 draft, and Ill hopefully be doing a John Sickels like shadow draft. For 14... I am out. For the rest of the draft, I'm desperately hoping that some of my Binkys, guys who won't be drafted until later but, you know, may have a chance migt be available. To be honest, Kevin McAvoy and Grant Kay (referenced here) started out as binky players, and in truth, may have only been promoted to tier 3 because one of them (McAvoy) was drafted far earlier than expected (Kay could have stayed a binky pick). Anyway, on to players who I would have included:

1. Jared Ruxer- This guy, an RHP from Louisville, may become a work horse... or he may falter entirely. Ruxer is big (he was also a tight end in highschool) and went through some injury concerns, but at his best, he is a big guy with good stuff, and potentially the ability to throw 200+ innings. He's worth the shot.
2. Benton Moss He was a college workhorse. Sign me up.
3. Richard Prigatano- When I played little league, the best players from every team joined up to form an all star team, and play against other all stars across the city. There was a second team, those who weren't quite all stars, but were "pretty ok," called "Best of the Rest." Prigatano could have been captain of the college "Best of the Rest" team. He's got an R/R profile. hasn't hit for as much power or gotten on base as much as you'd like. Heck, he plays a corner position, but no one knows which one. However... I can absolutely see this guy grinding out a career, Trot-Nixon-style (muinus platoon issues), as a valuable contributor to a winning team.

Anyway. that's all for the 2014 draft. Lots more Padres, MLB, and other sports info to follow.

2014 draft tier 5

This is the second to last post in my 2014 draft series. ICYMI, here are the first, second, third and fourth articles in the series.

As I said previously, the goal is to mix and match throughout the draft, finding a combination of safe picks and lotto tickets, guys who will sign quickly an inexpensively, along with more expensive players.

Tier 5 is where I am looking to save some money, first by looking for college seniors, and then identifying college relievers. My perfect college senior in the draft was Jake Stinnett, who went in the 2nd round (probably mush earlier than I would have grabbed him, so I'll leave him off the board here.

1. Jeff Gardner & Cole Sturgeon- Louisville teammates, I'm going to group them together as very similar players. Both left-handed hitters, both solid OBP, both pretty good defensively. I suspect neither ends up as a regular, although one of them could end up the bigger half of a platoon at the major league level. I see more of a 4th OF role for these guys, but I'd happily try to find out if there is more there with either one.
2. Joey DeNatto- Never mind that he shut out Louisville in the college world series, DeNatto is simply a workhorse college pitcher who deserves to see if his game can transition. Quality starts are important to me, and as a senior, 14 out of his 16 starts made the cut.
3. Dave Berg- He's a submarine pitcher who sits in the 80's with his fastball. So was Chad Bradford, and he deserved his own chapter in Moneyball. Sign me up.
4. John Dezse- In 2012, as a sophomore, Dezse started 58 games, got on base more than 40% of the time as a hitter, and earned 7 saves. He missed 2013 with a back problem, and 2014 was a rougher season (hitting numbers down, and no pitching), presumably in part because of the back surgery he had in 2013. That said, I can't help but think of Micah Owings every time I hear his name (or every time I bring his name up, since he's pretty darn obscure). In the national league, a guy who can both not embarrass himself as a pinch hitter and can occasionally take a turn in the mound is worth his weight in gold. I'm adding Dezse, and seeing what is left.
5. Hassan Evans- He was a pitching prospect who ended the year in the outfield. Somewhere along the way, I read an Edwin Jackson comp on Evans, and it has always stuck with me. Jackson never became a stud, but he had a few seasons as a quality starter.
6. Ian Tompkins- A left handed closer from Western Kentucky. In 17 innings on the Cape, he K'd 27 (and walked 11). I see Alan Embree here.

So, go Buckeyes?

When I started this blog, it was with the idea of borrowing Joe Posnanski's approach. Write lot's about baseball, but throw in some other stuff too.

Last night, Ohio State won a national championship in college football, based largely on the Herculian effort of Zeke Elliot (250 yards and 4 TD's... the last of which felt a little bit like a big brother running up the score on his little brother in Madden).

The Buckeyes were the best team on the field, and Elliot + his blockers really carried the day.

Watching early, it felt an awful lot like the Giants against the Bills all those years ago (Bills fans still cringe when they hear the words 'Wide Right' and refer to their kicker as 'Scott NorWouldn't'). Congrats to the Buckeyes, and the city of Columbus, which must be in a frenzy.

2014 draft tier 4

I may have done myself a small disservice in numbering these tiers, since in a hypothetical draft, it's possible I'd go out of order. For example, if my pick is coming up, and all of my tier 3 (guys I think will make it to MLB) players are available, but there is only one tier 4 guy there, I might pick the tier 4 player, hoping to catch a tier 3 when the draft comes around again.

This continues my 2014 MLB draft tier articles (tier 1 here, tier 2 here, and tier 3 here)

As a reminder, Tier 4 is my lotto ticket: A guy who has intriguiing potential, and if he hits, could become a star for me. One other thing. This particular group is very heavy on pitching. In this draft, I seemed to be heavy on hitters in the first few tiers, so if I can add some upside pitching, it will help me round out my draft class.

That said, here is the small group of players I had in my tier 4 heading into the 2014 draft:

1. Cameron Varga- I might as well spill the beans. When I look at high school pitchers, there are a few things that impress me. The first is athletic ability, which I have somehow equated with "ability to play the field as well." Varga fits this, extremely well (he was a highly sought after SS in Florida). His season was up and down, because of an injury (meaning he may fall for an explainable reason), and his stuff has the ability to get big leaguers out. The red flag I have on him is that he's old for his draft class (apparently he moved around as a kid), and generally speaking, this is a challenge. But if he falls to me, I'd be a happy camper
2. Austin DeCarr- He's a New England kid, a player with athleticism (he's apparently quite a good QB), with 2 quality pitches right now (meaning the bull pen might be his downside). I'll take it.
3. Zach Shannon- Shannon fits the profile of athletic pitcher who plays 2 positions, but interestingly, he hits with power. Lot's of it. If he falls to me, I'm leaving it up to my baseball ops people to see what we have on our hands.
4. Tate Blackman- A poor man's Christian Arroyo. That's how I've seen him described. The guy has a quality contact swing, and if he makes it onto my roster, he is going to get every chance to stick at SS.
5. Lane Thomas- He's an athlete, first of all. He played on Team USA's Under 18 squad, looks like a tweener between SS and CF, and has the kind of tools one can dream on.
6. Chandler Shepherd-Everything I said about Varga above holds true here. As a side note, Shepherd was drafted by the Reds as a SS. I think he'd be a pitcher in my organization. ***
7. Marvin Gorgas-He's a little guy, at 5'9, but that's OK with me. Something about his background is super intriguing for me (he's from Puerto Rico), he played in the field and on the mound with Team USA Under 18, and at worst, I somehow have ideas of a BH Kim usage (they're different pitchers, but a multi-inning relief ace might just be what Gorgas becomes).

***Please see the post recapping this exercise... I acknowledge being a bonehead of Shephard's inclusion.

2014 draft tier 3

Continuing my 2014 MLB draft tier articles (tier 1 here and tier 2 here):

As a reminder, Tier 3 is "safe" colleague guys who I think will end up having an MLB career.

1. Mark Zagunis- He comps to Jason Kendall, who I absolutely adore as a player (at some point, I'll review his book, which had some very interesting pieces of info in it). I love the idea of a catcher who can be a number 2 hitter, because it allows me to have an extra position player who hits for power somewhere in the lineup.
2. Daniel Gosset- There are a few things I like about Gossett. First of all, I think it was a bold decision to sit out of summer leagues (I understand entirely that I mentioned how much I value competition against one's best peers in these ranking, so bear with me, because this is really counter intuitive). I think, having never spoken with Gossett, it means the guy knows his arm, and knows when to lighten up the load (the alternative is that he's lazy, but I'm sticking to the positive on this one). Second, I think that so called "short" pitchers are undervalued. SUre, Tim Lincecum seems to be done after "only" a couple Cy Young season. Marcus Stroman just put up a 4:1 K/BB, and won 11 games as a rookie. Seriously? A draft pick gives me those seasons, and I'm doing cartwheels.
3. Sam Travis-Power hitting doesn't grow on trees, and while "Mike Napoli" is the upside here, Mike Napoli is a darn good player... in fact, he was the clean up hitter on a world champion. I know that scouts rarely love the "righty/righty" profile, because it means a guy is going to hit. I think Travis will.
4. Kevin McAvoy-A confession here. While I can't prove it, and I know how it looks that I've had 2 Redsox picks on my list here, I was in on McAvoy early. My actual note on his was something like: "What's better than a kid from Upstate NY who pitched in New England, and has gotten better every year?" I said previously that I think New Englanders are under-rated, because they simply don't get as much exposure, or playing time, as players in the south or in California. Essentially, McAvoy fits the profile here to a T, and his arm hasn't used a ton of bullets yet.
5. Austin Cousino- He won Freshman of the Year, got on base in 59 out of 62 games, and looked like he was going to become a consensus first overall pick. His sophomore year, well, he regressed. Last year, heading into the draft, he played spectacular defense, got on base at 36% of the time, and stole 19 bases in 20 attempts. His downside here? 4th OF who plays great D and is a pinch runner. Upside? Well, his upside is whoever coaches him gets him back to doing the things he proved he could do as a Freshman, and the team that drafts him gets a quality leadoff hitter.
6. Grant Kay- He's little, and went to JuCO, so he really only has one year playing against top quality competition. However, he can basically play any spot on the field, and somehow manages to hurt the baseball every time he hits it. He's a line drive machine. Upside might be something like Mark McLemore, who is stunningly underrated, or Ben Zobrist with a few less HR's and a few more 2b's.

2014 draft tier 2

Continuing the draft tier set of posts I started previously (part 1 can be found here), here is the second tier of my 2014 MLB draft board:

1. Brandon Finnegan- For starters, the comp I saw thrown around on Finnegan most often is that of Scott Kazmir, who has a spot on my all time favorite list (I've referenced it a few ti and promise to post it soon). High K lefties don't grow on trees, and at the time of the draft, I thought his downside would be power reliever (I know how much is sounds like I am calling this in hindsight).
2. Luke Weaver- Guys with a power sinker are always welcome.
3. Derek Fisher- in my Tiers Preview, I mentioned that sometimes, a player will fall because his numbers are down based on a very logical, very fixable issue. Fisher, widely considered a top 10 or top 15 prospect heading into the year, broke his hamate, and struggled with power numbers. Of COURSE he struggled with power numbers, the guy had a broken bone in his hand. Every player who has broken his hamate has struggled with power until around a year after the injury has healed (Big Papi is one of dozens of examples). If Fisher fell to me in the draft, I'm as happy as can be.
4. Nick Howard- make no mistake, I'm generally not in favor of grabbing college relievers early, but Howard is very interesting for a couple reasons. First, he has the arsenal to start. Second, since he was a reliever, there are presumably more bullets left in that arm. IN my mind, a guy who's been brought along throughout the college ranks as a reliever first (ideally a long reliever), may stay more healthy as he builds to a bigger workload, assuming his coach isn't a lunatic.
5. Isan Diaz- his scouting report essentially says he is a lefty hitting 2b with great bat control, fantastic defense, and the chance to be very good. I can't prove this, but I think that HS guys from the northeast maybe undervalued in general, since scouts may not get to see them as much. So, Diaz is in my second tier.
6. Michael Gettys-if all of the players above, who I think are much safer bets to make the majors, are gone, then it is time to swing for the fences. Think of Gettys as my "what the heck, I've been dealt hands I didn't love all night, let's go all in" option. Almost every scouting report said this guy might have the best tools in the draft.

2014 draft tier 1

As promised, here is my breakdown of my top tier for the 2014 draft:

1. Trea Turner*- here is what we knew about Turner going into the season- he is likely to end up at SS (a premium position), but if that doesn't work, he has the arm strength to play 3b. He is going to get on base (he always has). He is going to fly around the bases (30+SBs with a high success rate). Even if those numbers are at 3b (which obviously means we need to find power from other sources), this is an elite lead off hitter, and there are few of those around.
2. Carlos Rodon- everything you need to know in one sentence: he could be David Price. Yes, he seemed to have a dead arm period and lost velocity. Also, if you want to hit pick, he throws too many sliders, making TJ surgery more likely (I don't know if this is proven entirely, but on an anecdotal level, it seems to be correct)
3. Kyle Schwarber- I know that I'm posting this months after the draft so it is easy to call me a Johnny come lately on this one. However, 30HR players that seem to have a .380 OBP upside don't grow on trees. At the time I created this list, I was fairly sure Schwaeber would fall to the middle of the first round. So was basically every draft guru.
4. Jeff Hoffman- as I said previously, guys who play against their top peers and do well tend to score very highly for me, and Hoffman's stint in the Cape Cod league qualifies.
5. Michael Chavis- everywhere you look, he was referred to as the best hitter in the high school ranks.

*Earlier in the GM thought experiment (more coming on that soon), I said I wouldn't have dealt Turner in the Wil Myers deal. It's because I think Turner was the best player available in the 2014 draft.

Congrats fellas

So, it's the biggest Hall of Fame class in 60 years. In the coming days, there will be plenty of time for vitriol and disgust over those who should be in there. However, today belongs to Pedro, Johnson, Biggio and Smoltz. I'm thankful that I got to see Pedro in his prime, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling take over a World Series, a rotation with 3 (now bonafide) Hall of Famers, and a guy like Craig Biggio who somehow seemed like a dirt dog and the best athlete on the field (a rare mix). Congrats guys.

My Fictional HOF vote

I'm not a member of the BBWA, but if it ever happens, here is the list I'd be sending in as my ballot this year:

• Pedro Martinez- Pedro gets spots on my all time favorite, all time greatest I've ever seen, and all time dude I'd like to grab a drink with lists. Oh yeah: Jonah Keri called him a "rich man's Sandy Koufax." We good? Cool.
• Randy Johnson- I mentioned on Twittter that Jonah Keri's article about the Big a unit is amazing. And Johnson makes 2 of the 3 lists above. He is in
• Barry Bonds- He knocked off the Bambino (whether through cheating or not), and oh yeah, he may have been the best player of an era before he cheated. He is in.
• Roger Clemens- As a Red Sox fan, I appreciate the 20k game, think he left on crummy terms, and then became a scum bag. Good news... Lots of talented scum bags are in the hall. Welcome aboard. Hope you trip walking up to give your speech, and pray you "misremember" something.
• Tim Raines- Raines is a hall of famer. "Ricky was better" is a terrible answer to keep him out. Raines also has an argument for best LF I ever saw live... Though I suspect Manny Ramirez has a word or three to share with me over it.
• John Smoltz- 150 wins, 150 saves, and a truly unique career. Welcome here Mr. Smoltz.
• Jeff Bagwell- the peak is phenomenal, and the career numbers hold up. He won lots of people fantasy baseball titles, and will always be the cautionary tale of trading away prospects (I almost think Larry Anderson deserves a plaque underneath Bagwell's, just because).
• Mike Piazza- I know there is an Internet troll who said Piazza's back was ugly. However, the guy might be the greatest offensive catcher of all time, and Roger Clemens once threw a bat at him. I hope they give back to back speeches, just so we can see the, exchange pleasantries.
• Curt Schilling- the bloody sock, a postseason record that is such an outlier that it makes saber folks question the existence of clutch, and a K:BB that is simply freaky. He is in for me
• Craig Biggio- this one is tough. It means that Edgar Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra (all time fav, all time best I ever saw lists for me) miss the cut. However, his uniqueness holds up (Catcher, 2b, CF) along with the stats